Posted on 04/09/2016 10:43:55 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Just over a month ago, after Trump’s big win in Nevada and after Cruz’s SEC state southern strategy fell short amidst the Trump tidal wave across the south, it looked like Trump had the momentum to prevail against a fractured field. Trump thought it was over, and was confident enough to hold unifying post-primary press conference events like a President. As more March contests took place however, the persistent overperformance of Cruz (in places like Kansas, Wyoming and Maine) and underperformance of Rubio that led finally to Rubio’s withdrawal after Florida. Despite Kasich staying in, the race has winnowed and clarified to the point where Cruz was finally given his chance to go toe to toe with Trump.
And what happened? While Trump won in Arizona, in part due to early votes in the Arizona primary and a favorable state for his immigration message, since then it’s been Cruz domination:
◾Cruz won Utah with 69% of the vote, sweeping all of Utah’s 40 delegates.
◾Cruz won delegates out of Louisiana that were available.
◾Cruz then won the North Dakota delegate race, taking 18 out of 25 delegates. Trump got only 1 publicly supporting delegate.
◾Cruz won in Wisconsin, getting close to 50% of the vote and winning 36 out of the 42 delegates by winning most Congressional districts, with just 6 delegates for Trump.
◾Cruz won the Colorado delegate selection process, winning all of the delegate races, either with Cruz bound delegates or Cruz-supporting unbound delegates, a total of 34 delegates.
◾Cruz has been winning the ‘other’ nomination race, the race for actual delegates, even when bound to Trump. In places like Georgia, South Carolina, Massachusetts, Tennessee, and many other states. For example, this weekend in Iowa, a CD is sending #CruzCrew delegates to Iowa.
@CCPAC4Cruz 5m5 minutes ago Sweep for #CruzCrew delegates in #IA02 #OnToCleveland
The Colorado win now gives Cruz the 8th states he needs to meet the Rule 40 (b) requirement, adding CO to TX, ME, KS, ID, ND, UT and WI. More importantly, though, from Utah until now Cruz has won the delegate race: 128 delegates for Cruz, 7 delegates for Trump, 0 delegates for Kasich. Cruz is crushing it. The race has become a race for delegate accumulation, and by shutting Trump down in Utah, North Dakota, Wisconsin and Colorado, Cruz has shifted the terrain enough to make it much harder for Trump to get to 1237. Should Cruz keep Trump under 50% in New York, and force a split of New York’s delegates, and have Kasich and Cruz both be over 20%, the split in delegates may be something like: 54 Trump, 11 Kasich, 30 Cruz. Then Trump’s hill will become steep to the point of impossible.
As of right now, The Greenpapers has soft pledged total at:
◾758 Trump
◾533 Cruz
◾732 available (via primaries) to be bound
◾77 unpledged available
Trump needs 65% of the remaining delegates to get to 1237. Should Trump get 50% of the remaining, above the 45% he’s gotten so far, Trump would have 1120 delegates after June 7th. This is why today, PredictIt.org says: “Traders give a brokered convention a 70% chance.”
With Trump’s complete failure to win the delegate race, with him losing steam in primaries and getting punked in almost every caucus and activist-filled GOP convention, it’s become almost a certainty that if Trump can’t get to Cleveland either at or very close to 1237 bound delegates, that he will fail to have sufficient delegates to actually win the nomination.
“The convention is an extension of the democratic process. … I am confident that we are going to win a contested convention.” – Ted Cruz, 4/9/16
Cruz will indeed win the nomination on the second ballot should Trump fail to win it on the first ballot. Victory will go to Cruz, the man who’s run the best campaign and is indeed the best candidate. And history will look back at this week and the Wisconsin victory and other wins this week as the turning point.
Right.
Dirty b#stards.
If this campaign has taught us anything, it’s that Cruz has surprising stamina. He’s been counted out almost as many times as Trump!
What am I missing? It looks to me like you have a primary on May 7th.
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/primaries/preview/guam
“I am not now, nor have I ever been anything other than a CONSERVATIVE GOPer.”
Sorry I mistook you for a Trump supporter.
Very fine analysis. Thank you.
Cruz is a Globalist not a conservative. Like the other Ivy League lawyers in office he creates theatrics for the gullible based on market research on what buttons to push. We have been down this same road many times with others.
No conservative promotes a Globalist agenda such as helping Draft Bush’s NAFTA, Pushing TPP and TSA, voting yes on the Corker bill and the Patriot Act, blocking America from policing currency manipulation from the global market, siding with BLM protestors against cops, handing out gift baskets to illegals at the border, etc.
I support America first. You apparently support America being last. To each his own I guess
Her you mean the Establishment troll trying to sling stuff at the wall to see if it would stick? No that was a failed attempt at damage control that in no way rebutted any point or positions I had made. Establishment trolls can try all the spins and obstructions they want; but, the facts are the consistent actions of the Foreign-born Harvard lawyer consistently promoting the North American Union agenda his wife helped plan.
Ted is politically dead.
He has no political future.
This was a pivotal post, and you should have gotten a lot of commentary after it.
Thank you.
Your links were important, and really nailed it on several levels.
Cruz has done exactly what I said; you and your ilk just refuse to see/accept reality.
How much did Roe send you for posting that, or was it just in the latest talking point sheet ? LOL
And FYI....all of you look very foolish.
Sorry, I mistook you for a sentient human being; however, I see that you're just a programed bot.
Trump’s platform: Make America Great Again
Cruz’s platform: Block Trump
^^ Spot on ^^
I do my homework and make up my mind about candidates as more and more FACTS come out about them.
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