Posted on 12/18/2015 3:26:07 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Globe political reporter James Pindell made a smart, under-appreciated point in his Ground Game newsletter Thursday (subscribe to it here: bostonglobe.com/groundgame): When it comes to the establishment lane, most candidates are looking to New Hampshire for clues. Sure, if someone like Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, former Florida governor Jeb Bush, Ohio’s Governor John Kasich, or Rubio wins the Granite State, then Republicans will likely have an establishment option in March.
But here’s the current trajectory of the race: US Senator Ted Cruz has the momentum to win Iowa, and Donald Trump is on a similar path to win New Hampshire. After winning Iowa, Cruz could easily get the 17 or 18 percent he needs to get second place in New Hampshire. That leaves the establishment candidate getting, at best, third place.
Then it is off to South Carolina and Nevada, where Trump holds double-digit leads, and then a week later to Super Tuesday. Those contests mostly take place in the Deep South, where an establishment candidate will probably not do well....
(Excerpt) Read more at bostonglobe.com ...
Infinity and beyond...
Romney won 6 of the 10 Super Tuesday contests in 2012.
Trump,
Cruz,
Rubio.
Trump has practically been living in New Hampshire the last few months
I don’t see what is under-appreciated about the analysis the author references, 2ndDiv. It can be found by looking at the polling in the caucus and primary states in Jan - March.
It’s the math! Trump and Cruz combined are close to, and sometimes over, the 50% threshold. I understand many states are proportional rather than winner-take-all, but the math still works.
Anyone here want to bet me there will be a brokered convention? “No” is my choice.
The next islamist jihad, here or in Europe, and the math will be even easier.
It is only a guess based on those I talk to and they are pissed off.
Rand Paul should make an appearance due to the large libertarian presence in the State.
It’s nice to win New Hampshire, but it’s gone steadily democrat over the years.
Admittedly, the idiotic caucus states are problematic and I will be very happy to see them eventually ended nationwide as they undermine the overall vote in favor of a few fanatics and people willing to play the caucus game, available at the required time, etc. Caucuses too often boost the losers over the state's popular candidates. If Cruz wins, it is despite Trump being more popular. The result is meaningless.
I’d really like to see caucuses done away with. If not everywhere, at least in Nevada. I hate them.
I disagree a little bit. I think that Trump is going to win Iowa, and win big. Cruz will do well, however.
I lived in Iowa from 9th grade until I was 42. Ted Cruz is winning in Iowa. Period.
I lived in Iowa from 9th grade until I was 42. Ted Cruz is winning in Iowa. Period.
It’s nice to win New Hampshire, but it’s gone steadily democrat over the years.
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Iowa has gone democrat 6 of the last 7 presidential elections. The one exception was in 2004.
Dream on. Cruz wins Iowa easy. Not even close.
Gee, I live in Nevada too, and I love the caucus. It is open only to republicans, and you get the chance to talk things over with people.
Last caucus, our precinct was overwhelmingly Mormons wearing Romney buttons. There were I think three of us who were non-Mormon, two of us supported Gingrich, one supported Santorum. We talked about the alternatives to Romney, and I guess we did a very good job because Newt won our precinct, Santorum took a couple of votes, and unbelievably Romney came in last!
Now I don’t know if Romney was your candidate or not, (personally I felt Romney was not a good candidate to go up against Obama) but the point here is that with a caucus, as opposed to the open primary that we have here in Nevada, we the grass roots can really have some influence if we care to exercise it, and really limit the power of RINOs. Don’t hate the caucus please, it is really quite empowering.
(PS: I live in Fallon)
A number of dems tell me they do not like Hillary Clinton and a surprising number of what may be more “moderate” democrats seem to like Donald Trump.
In Stagecoach :) And how did the state go? The people get up to Reno and the Nevada Republicans and they go however they want.
In addition, every person alive and mobile used to vote in the primary here. We switch to caucus and lose half the voters. They don’t have the time and don’t want to deal with the self important know it all community leaders. They don’t want to discuss their vote, they just want to vote.
I think it will be close in Iowa and wouldn’t be surprised if Cruz won. However, one interesting bit of info from the Fox polls today is Trump is leading (nationally, not Iowa)with evangelicals and has gone up 14% (Cruz went up 8%) with evangelicals since his comments on a temporary ban on Muslim immigration. That is a yuge statistic.
I have family members who are long time liberals, Obama supporters campaigned for him in ‘08 and ‘12. They’re leaning Trump.
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