I don’t see what is under-appreciated about the analysis the author references, 2ndDiv. It can be found by looking at the polling in the caucus and primary states in Jan - March.
It’s the math! Trump and Cruz combined are close to, and sometimes over, the 50% threshold. I understand many states are proportional rather than winner-take-all, but the math still works.
Anyone here want to bet me there will be a brokered convention? “No” is my choice.
The next islamist jihad, here or in Europe, and the math will be even easier.
“...It’s the math! Trump and Cruz combined are close to, and sometimes over, the 50% threshold. I understand many states are proportional rather than winner-take-all, but the math still works.
Anyone here want to bet me there will be a brokered convention? “No” is my choice....”
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Nah...that would be a sucker’s bet. If Trump and Cruz keep up what they’re doing, their RINO opponents will have just a tiny proportion of the delegates earned by April and it will be effectively over with either Trump or Cruz going on to get the nomination. I’m a Cruz guy but it will most likely be Trump carrying the victory.
In any case, the GOP establishment will be sidelined if, between them, Trump & Cruz get most of the delegates.