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The Polls May Be Underestimating Trump's Support
The Atlantic ^ | December 9, 2015 | Henry Olsen

Posted on 12/09/2015 12:07:00 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

Donald Trump’s persistent lead in the GOP presidential-preference polls has been a great source of confusion for the chattering classes. But Trump is actually just the latest manifestation of a more global trend: Data suggests the appeal of anti-immigrant policies to working-class voters is much deeper than most American elites want to believe. And because Trump draws the bulk of his support from less-educated, working- and middle-class voters, he may be positioned to do even better still—for now. Polling data from Europe shows that parties with similar voter profiles to Trump’s consistently do better in both online polls and at the ballot box than in live-interview polling. And currently Trump is far ahead online.

Why does this happen? It starts with working-class voters across developed countries being under severe economic pressure because of competition with foreigners at home (immigration) and abroad (EU/trade). They respond to people and parties who tell them this state of affairs isn’t inevitable, and they are often impervious to cries of racism. Their lives are just plain harder than they used to be and working-class voters don’t see elites doing much—or wanting to do much—to make them better. Donald Trump is simply the American version of Nigel Farage, Geert Wilders, and many other European leaders of working-class, anti-immigrant parties who profit from stoking the flames of resentment because there is so much kindling available to light....

(Excerpt) Read more at theatlantic.com ...


TOPICS: Campaign News; Issues; Parties; Polls
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; elections; immigration; muslims; polls; trump; trumpwasright
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1 posted on 12/09/2015 12:07:00 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

2 posted on 12/09/2015 12:08:40 PM PST by Old Sarge
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The establishment once again trying to comfort themselves. The base is stupid and lazy, so we won’t vote.

FU GOPe!!!


3 posted on 12/09/2015 12:09:46 PM PST by datura (Proud Infidel)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
There you go. Morning Consult. Ahead of the Curve.
GOP Poll 12/8: Trump 41 Carson 12 Rubio 10 Cruz 7 Bush 5
4 posted on 12/09/2015 12:10:22 PM PST by BigEdLB (Take it Easy, Chuck. I'm Not Taking it Back - Donald Trump)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Less educated middle class? What BS!


5 posted on 12/09/2015 12:10:24 PM PST by Grams A (The Sun will rise in the East in the morning and God is still on his throne.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Wow, is this writer talking down to the American worker!!!


6 posted on 12/09/2015 12:10:42 PM PST by freepertoo
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Mom used to have a saying about Washington elites...”educated beyond their intelligence”.


7 posted on 12/09/2015 12:11:21 PM PST by DannyTN
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I beginning to believe the silly small childish intellects in the DC Political/Media machine are so brainwashed with PC nonsense they simply cannot be made to be see reason by any event. I was thinking maybe Paris would FINALLY wake up the US Political/Media class but now think not even a nuke bomb going off in a US City will make them grow up.


8 posted on 12/09/2015 12:12:12 PM PST by MNJohnnie ( Tyranny, like Hell, is not easily conquered)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Sometimes it is smarter to be less educated. Sadly the educated are frequently taught to abandon common sense and ignore reality, while the while the less educated continue to live in the real world and draw sensible conclusions about their real world observation.


9 posted on 12/09/2015 12:13:11 PM PST by erkelly
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Of courses Trumps standings in the polls is under represented; but this constant talk about how he is mostly getting the "blue collar" and "less educated" voters is just silly !

Sure he's getting that group; however, he appeals to everyone, across ALL demographics, which is what REALLY scares these people, who see themselves as the "intellectuals".

10 posted on 12/09/2015 12:13:17 PM PST by nopardons
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To: DannyTN

My Mother and my Godmother used to say exactly the same thing! (Both teachers by the way!)


11 posted on 12/09/2015 12:15:11 PM PST by erkelly
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Trump draws the bulk of his support from less-educated, working- and middle-class voters....

Has it dawned on this elitist that most people in this country fall into this category? Trump is not appealing to any individual class to the exclusion of any other. He is supported by voters of every social class.

12 posted on 12/09/2015 12:18:34 PM PST by Louis Foxwell (Stop Islam and save the world.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I keep seeing this assertion from the media that Trump draws his support primarily from citizens who meet a low education threshold.

I wonder if they account for well-educated conservatives who’d prefer Cruz above Trump, but recognize the impetus Trump has and see him as the likely candidate?

While I suspect Trump is all hat and no cattle when it comes to truly understanding foreign policy, choosing his battles, and delivering substantive ideas on how to address complex problems, I would most certainly rather see him in the White House than any Democrat, not least because his tenure would be nails on the chalkboard every day for the media, liberal elite, and GOPe. What’s not to love?


13 posted on 12/09/2015 12:19:43 PM PST by Heavyrunner (Socialize this.)
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To: Louis Foxwell
less-educated, working- and middle-class voters

i.e., our poop stinks, theirs don't... I think that is what the author is saying.
14 posted on 12/09/2015 12:22:29 PM PST by BigEdLB (Take it Easy, Chuck. I'm Not Taking it Back - Donald Trump)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
And because Trump draws the bulk of his support from less-educated, working- and middle-class voters,

I thought that was supposed to be the Democratic base?

15 posted on 12/09/2015 12:23:52 PM PST by Yo-Yo (Is the /sarc tag really necessary?)
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To: nopardons

Some of us are blue collar and in some cases less educated because we actually had to work for a living and could not afford Ivy league schools or student loans for college expenses. Less educated does not necessarily mean less intelligent, nor does being blue collar. Some of the wisest people I’ve known have had to take life’s hard knocks and learned by experience. On the other hand, I know and have worked for some truly highly educated idiots.


16 posted on 12/09/2015 12:26:32 PM PST by freepertoo
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Try to read this with your best "Thurston Howell" voice.


17 posted on 12/09/2015 12:27:06 PM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: BigEdLB
Just love it that Trump and now Cruz are pushing it right back into the face of the MSM. Trump and Cruz and graveling at the feet of the MSM, they are challenging them and winning and making the MSM look stupid and out of touch with America. Wait until they sit down and start tearing down Granny in every interview. Then the MSM’s heads will really go Blair on us.
18 posted on 12/09/2015 12:31:52 PM PST by Kozy
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

> “And because Trump draws the bulk of his support from ***less-educated***, ***working-*** and ***middle-class*** voters, he may be positioned to do even better still ***for now***.”

There you have it:

* less-educated
* working-class
* middle-class

Monsieur Henry Olsen writing for a liberal rag that calls itself ‘The Atlantic’ is expressing just how low class and uneducated the Trump supporters are.

What an ASSHOLE!

Let me tell you something Henry, my educational credentials are orders and orders of magnitude beyond anything you could ever hope to achieve.


19 posted on 12/09/2015 12:34:36 PM PST by Hostage (ARTICLE V)
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To: Louis Foxwell

Yes, Trump has broad appeal to classically educated Americans regardless of the extent of their formal education.

Those are the people who know how to think, reasonand survive in a real world of good and evil. They love their families and their country with an unabashed prideand have learned the emptiness of liberal elites.


20 posted on 12/09/2015 12:38:51 PM PST by amihow (l)
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