Former Clinton Adviser Predicts Bernie Sanders Will Beat Hillary Clinton

Bill Curry, a former counselor to Bill Clinton, predicts that,Hillary Clinton is going to lose: She doesn’t even see the frustrated progressive wave that will nominate Bernie Sanders. He initially looked at how Clinton avoided answering questions about her position on TPP, but then looked at her overall campaign. Besides economics, Curry discussed another major weakness for Clinton: “She’s weakest on the sleeper issue of 2016: public corruption and the general debasement of politics and government.”

I don’t think she can enlist Wall Street oligarchs and recruit an army of dewy-eyed volunteers. Above all, I don’t think she can spout populist rhetoric without any policy specifics to back it up. Clinton insiders also ingratiate themselves to reporters by dishing about her need to seem more authentic. Someone should tell them it’s hard to seem real when you won’t tell people what you really think.

A bigger problem for Clinton may be that we know what she thinks. Her platform is like Obama’s trade deal; she won’t say what’s in it, but we can easily guess. It isn’t populism and it isn’t reform. The TPP? She never met a trade deal she didn’t like. The minimum wage? She and Obama let McDonald’s get the drop on them. The surveillance state? Her handling of her emails told us all we need to know of her views on transparency. More war in Iraq? For 12 years as a senator and secretary of state she was John McCain’s best friend. If she gets to be commander in chief, get ready to rumble.

She’s weakest on the sleeper issue of 2016: public corruption and the general debasement of politics and government. Voter disgust is so deep even consultants who make their real livings off corporate clients tell their political clients to talk about it. In her speech Clinton vowed to “wage and win four fights for you.” The first three were jobs, families and national security. The fourth was “reforming our government and revitalizing our democracy.” She vowed to overturn Citizens United and fight GOP efforts to disenfranchise the young, the poor and people of color, but then drifted off onto technology and cutting waste. Unlike nearly every Republican announcing for president, she never mentioned ethics or corruption.

Democratic elites don’t want to hear it but Hillary Clinton’s in trouble. It isn’t in all the data yet though you can find it if you look. In a straw poll taken in early June at a Wisconsin Democratic convention she edged out Bernie Sanders by just 8 points, 49% to 41%. In a poll of N.H. primary voters this week she beat Sanders by 41% to 31%. An Ohio poll had her in a dead heat with the likes of Ted Cruz and Rand Paul. If Sanders can poll 40% in a Wisconsin straw poll in June he can do it an Iowa caucus in January. Imagine a Hillary Clinton who just lost Iowa and New Hampshire to Bernie Sanders. It’s still hard to picture but it gets easier every day.

You don’t win your next race running someone else’s last one. Trying to do so, Clinton repeats her big mistake of 2008: not sensing the times. There are smaller changes she can make right now: hire better speech writers, including at least one with a sense of humor; put her family foundation under independent management; tell her husband to stop giving speeches or else start talking for free. But her whole campaign model is wrong. ‘Clinton Democrats’ hate to admit there are issues you can’t finesse or that they must ever choose between the middle class and the donor class. Clinton better figure it out now. When the data’s all in it will be too late.

Clinton resists change. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders is the only candidate in either party who seems to feel the tectonic plates of our politics shifting, perhaps because he’s expected the change for so long. His is still an improbable candidacy, but less improbable than it was a month or even a week ago. If he clears out the second tier, his battle with Hillary could become epic, forcing not just her but the Democratic Party to choose between the middle class and the donor class; between corporate and democratic rule; the battle over trade carried over into a presidential election.

While Clinton is weak on both economics and government transparency, she has additional weaknesses when facing Democratic voters. This includes how she helped George Bush lie the country into the Iraq war with false claims that Saddam had connections to al Qaeda, her continued push for increased military intervention as Secretary of State, and her conservative positions on civil liberties, the environment, and social issues. I hope Curry is right that Clinton can be beaten in Iowa and New Hampshire despite her tremendous lead in the polls.

People are way past fed up with the Manchurian Candidate in the WH......and Hillary's 2016 campaign strategy to co-opt the so-called "Obama coalition" is doomed to fail.

Last November's midterms delivered Americans' unequivocal message to their govt: "The people have spoken." The treasure trove of "The 2014 Midterm Democrat Demolition Derby" and down-ticket state wins have yet to be fully- mined, but this we know:

<><> DEMOCRATS LOST BIGTIME IN AN ASTOUNDING HISTORY-MAKING ELECTION

<><> midterms were a massive and awesome rejection of liberals;

<><> Southern Democrats control not a single governorship, US senator or legislative chamber,

<><> Democrat losses stretch from the Carolinas westward to Texas,

<><> 110 Of 140 Southern States election districts went Republican.

<><> GOP's House majorities are so huge and solid NBC's Chuck Todd says Dems can't recapture losses until 2022.

<><> Some pundits say Republicans have a 100-year majority;

<><> when the next US Senate convenes, 30 lock-stepping Democrats who voted for Obamacare are gone.

<><> Ark and Ill (Clinton hometowns) have Repub governors---important in a prez race b/c guvs control party machinery.

<><> Unprecedented MINN 6th Congressional district---every single House and Senate district went Repub

<><> GOP now controls the MINN State House.

<><> Ohio's historic GOP statehouse takeover (Gun Control is toast)

<><> Ohio's Gov, Lt. Gov, AG, Secy of State, State Auditor, State Treasurer--all R---Sup/Ct - 6 R/1 D

<><> Britt Hume sez: "latino vote is zilch"---"over-50" is significant 30% voting segment.

<><> Republicans unified control: gov/legislature in 23 states (Ntl Conference of State Legislatures factoid).

<><> Repub governorships: Florida, Tx, Ill, Ohio, Mich, MD, Wisconsin, NC, GA, Mass.

<><> GOP holds every congressional seat in Arkansas; first time in 141 years...

<><> Environmentalists fogged out---suffered huge losses.

<><> Gun Control Candidates blitzed.

<><> "War on Women" became a ntl joke.

<><> Clinton's labeled politically useless---most candidates they flacked lost.

<><> Montana, So/Dakota and West/VA Dems were forced to retire; no hope of getting re-elected,

<><> Arizona House recount race went Republican.

<><> AZ Republican McSally wins last open House seat (Dem Gaby Giffords seat),

<><> Repub McSally's win gives GOP 5-4 advantage in AZ congressional delegation,

<><> Repubs hold 247 House seats (Dems 188), the largest GOP advantage since the Truman admin after WWII.

<><> 73 percent of LA's white voters say told they "strongly disapproved" of the president.

<><> Republicans hold the largest House majority in 83 years.

<><> Republicans holds 68 of 98 state legislative chambers.

<><> 2015 Republican grip on state government has not been seen since the 1920s.

<><> Republicans hold or share control in nearly every state (7 states' legislature and Governor are Dem-held).

<><> 12 states, including Missouri, Arizona, Arkansas, NC will push income tax cuts and fiscal reform.

<><> Illinois’ new Repub Governor’s top priority is reforming its nearly-bankrupt public pension system.

<><> Nevada voted loudly--GOP landslide victories---Gov, Lt. Gov, all five constitutional offices, State Senate/Assembly---first time since the 1920s.

<><> Nev ballot referendum supporting a business margins tax on corporations was voted down by a 3 to 1 margin. THREE-TO-ONE. This was the anti-tax, anti-big government sweep of a lifetime. Historic. Revolutionary.

<><> Vermont Democrats allied w/ VT conservative Repubs to ward off voter backlash

<><> controversial and seemingly incompetent VT Democrat governor did not get the requisite votes to stay in office.

<><> VT poised to install Vermont's first Republican governor in over four years

<><> Republicans now control two-thirds of the state legislatures.

<><> Since Democrats lost power, approval of Congress has risen 6% under Republicans.

On the e-mail server...she’s never stuck to one story and it survived. Any single moment required clarification and a change. Bernie? Nothing but version 1.0 on his record, ever.

On Benghazi, she’s given a lousy and marginal description of her actions. Bernie? I can’t think of a single executive screw-up that Bernie has ever done.

On positions? Hillary has shifted on fifty percent of all positions over the past decade. Bernie is still on position one of ninety percent of topics over the past decade.

You get a honest feeling of belief from what Bernie says....even if you disagree with his position. With Hillary, you feel like someone has paid her to take this position and she’ll flip when more money arrives.

Bernie is pure socialism. I can’t really describe what Hillary is. It’s not really liberal....it’s not conservative....it’s not socialist....maybe lobbiservative?

Finally, in a real debate....Hillary can marginally carry herself with a 12-year-old kid. Bernie is a fairly decent debate guy and I can’t see how she’d get a crowd thrilled over her chat.

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