Posted on 06/01/2015 8:06:13 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The Kentucky senator gets a lot of attention for his outreach efforts. But he’s not the only Republican looking to win black voters in the post-Obama era.
If Republicans really care about winning in 2016, then they may want to pay more attention to the voters who haven’t ever voted Republican. With each passing election the Republican electorate has gotten older and whiter, while America is getting younger and browner.
That presents a problem for what is increasingly becoming the Gray Old Party. The only real choice for Republicans is to win a meaningful share of brown or black voters. But while much has been made about the potential for certain GOP candidates to attract Latino voters, there is far less discussion about whether the party has candidates who have a shot at making inroads with black voters.
Of course, no GOP candidate has to win the black vote. They just have to replicate what President Bush did back in 2004 when he won 16 percent of the black vote in Ohio and 13 percent in Florida, enough to carry him to victory. And there are some GOP candidates who have the potential to get much higher numbers than that.
Gov. Mike Huckabee, for instance, stunned the post-Clinton Arkansas political establishment by securing record support among black voters there. Though exit polls indicate he won as much as 48 percent, political analysts believe the final number was likely lower but still significant. Gov. Chris Christie won 25 percent of black male voters in his last race for Governor and 18 percent of black women, not to mention a high profile endorsement from Shaquille O’Neal. (Christie’s popularity in the state has fallen off sharply since then, though.)
In an email, Huckabee communications adviser Hogan Gidley explained that the Governor has never bought into the idea that African American voters could not be convinced to vote for a Republican candidate. “He was able to garner such a large number of African American votes because he bucked the Democrat and Republican establishment way of thinking,” Gidley wrote. “Often times, Republicans say, ‘African American voters will never vote for us,’ and Democrats say, ‘African Americans always vote for us.’ Sadly, the result is that African Americans are taken for granted by officeholders. However, Governor Huckabee refused to believe that and instead actively, aggressively and consistently—not just in election years—pursued the African American vote.”
Gidley went on to note that as governor, Huckabee made a record number of appointments of African Americans to various roles. He also pointed to his efforts to move more people off of welfare and into jobs, a distinction from those who simply talk of cutting welfare without proposing solutions for those on it beyond remaining poverty.
In an email, Dr. Ben Carson, the only African American Republican presidential candidate, stressed the importance of helping those in struggling minority communities: “I will send a very strong message about extending a hand to lift people out of hopelessness. I know these communities and their pain. My colleagues from either party would do best by addressing this issue seriously. Many of these neighborhoods have never seen a Republican candidate for President. But they will this year.”
But while addressing poverty is certainly important, it’s criminal justice that is emerging as a defining political issue for black voters. When asked if he hopes to hear Republicans discuss criminal justice on the campaign trail, Republican fundraiser Stephen N. Lackey replied, “Absolutely.”
Lackey, who is African American and in his 30s, explained that it is now no longer optional for Republican candidates not to weigh in on issues like body cameras, but a must if they want to be viable among black voters. “There can’t just be a conversation. They [candidates] have to have a plan,” he said. It is worth noting that Sen. Rand Paul was the first presidential candidate to visit Ferguson, Missouri in the aftermath of death of Michael Brown, meeting with civil rights leaders there. He has also penned fiery op-eds denouncing the militarization of police and the War on Drugs.
In a phone interview, Lackey explained that he has noted a groundswell in recent months, with more and more of his black peers contacting him about possibly changing their party affiliation or at least meeting and donating to Republican candidates: “There are a lot of black Republicans that have come out of the closet since 2012.” Lackey went on to note that many African Americans—particularly younger ones—felt a sense of pride in seeing the election of President Barack Obama. But they also feel that now that he has safely gotten a second term they can explore their options in a way that they may not have felt was socially acceptable before.
He said he has received calls from young African Americans asking for strategic advice on how to publicly explain their conservative politics without incurring a backlash. “In our community for so long you were just not supposed to be a Republican—especially in the age of Obama,” he says. But when he invited young African Americans to some GOP events, including the Visions Luncheon he hosts with the powerhouse law firm Quarles and Brady, as well as the RNC’s Trailblazer Luncheon, “I think they were able to see a lot of black Republicans who weren’t weird and self-hating. They saw a bunch of business people who just understood very basic business principles that would uplift the community.” And black Republicans who were active in the black community and had not become ostracized for their conservative politics.
Chelsi Henry is a young, black lawyer in her twenties who became the first registered Republican in her family. Born to a teen mother, she found the GOP’s message and values to resonate with her because they were the values her mother had instilled in her, including economic personal responsibility. She also cares about issues like school choice. Though Henry has not yet picked a candidate, it is worth noting that Sen. Ted Cruz surprised many by teaming up with black Democrats to push school choice, calling it “the civil rights issue of the 21st century.” With polls showing minority parents statistically more likely to support issues like school choice, since their kids are more likely to be faced with failing public schools, school choice is another issue that may give an opening to a GOP candidate to chip away at black voters in key states, and not just Ted Cruz.
Voters like Lackey and Henry represent the greatest path to victory for the GOP. Polling for my book Party Crashing in 2008 found younger black Americans to be significantly less loyal to the two major parties than previous generations. Our polling found that of the African Americans surveyed, “35 percent of respondents ages 18-24 identified themselves as independents, while 41 percent of respondents ages 18-45 identified themselves as “politically independent” even though they are registered Democrats.” Lackey, though a Republican fundraiser, has voted for Democrats.
The bottom line is his vote and a lot of votes of young African Americans are up for grabs. But for too long both parties have acted as though our votes are not. But that may finally change in 2016. If it does it may result in a big win for the GOP, but an even bigger win for African Americans, who perhaps will finally stop being taken for granted by both major parties.
Great chart. The GOP started to gain traction with Blacks in 1952 and 1956 but it all went away in 1964 with Goldwater.
...the voters who haven’t ever voted Republican
It's common knowledge that until well into the 20th century the black vote was solidly Republican so it raises a red flag for this writer to help perpetuate the myth that blacks never voted that way. If the GOP can't untangle the web of lies, blood libels and slander that won the black vote over to the party of the KKK, they simply should move on and let blacks figure it out on their own.
wow. great analysis. I hope they are thinking like you.
I also don’t agree with most of this. The GOP should work to get more “minority” votes by articulating our position better. The Irish, Germans, and Italians all used to be minorities. Now they are just Americans. We need to work actively against the divisive “diversity” agenda of liberals and help today’s minorities to see that their best interests are served by the freedom and opportunity that are supposed to be the centerpiece of the conservative agenda.
The GOP started to gain traction with Blacks in 1952 and 1956 but it all went away in 1964 with Goldwater.
Quite a hefty blame to place solely on Goldwater.
What happened in ‘64, that could’ve been, perhaps, more of the reason(s)? Hmmm, oh yes, The Civil Rights Act of 1964...along with the War on Poverty (aka Welfare expansion).
Goldwater did vote against that CR Act, unlike others before it. Why? Because he felt it intruded into states’ rights...and, was therefore Un-Constitutional.
Here’s a bit more info, about that:
...In the 1964 civil rights act Republicans in the house voted 138 for and 34 against; Democrats voted 152 for and 96 against. In the Senate, the Republicans voted 27 for and 6 against; the Democrats voted 46 for and 21 against. Clearly, from these numbers there was no apparent anti-Civil Rights movement in the GOP as Roland Martin, and others, suggest.
As a matter of fact, as one of the six voting against the 1964 Civil rights act, Senator Goldwater, on principle, disagreed with the idea of Federal government intervention regarding this matter. “His stance was based on his view that the act was an intrusion of the federal government into the affairs of states and, second, that the Act interfered with the rights of private persons to do business, or not, with whomever they chose.”[3]...
...He supported the integration of the Arizona National guard and Phoenix public schools.[4] Goldwater was, also, a member of the NAACP and the Urban League
http://www.freedomsjournal.net/2011/10/09/urban-legend-goldwater-against-civil-rights/
Goldwater isn’t the reason the GOP “lost traction” with black voters.
It has more to do with who swayed the black voters with more *benefits*. Benefits which have, we now see, forced dependence on Government, rather than self and have taken the place of fathers as breadwinners/supporters of the family, as well as a general work ethic.
The only black votes I’m concerned about are the ones we don’t have to pander for.
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I agree cripplecreek, candidates and activists who pander are political whores. However, having said that, dealing with issues that are important to the Black Communities and the entire nation, is NOT pandering. Young, Black adults need to be looked in the eye and told the truth about how the Poverty Pimps like Al Sharpton have kept them in the Ghetto for decades. Somebody needs to have the balls to go into Black Communities and say: “I’m hear to tell you the truth if you can handle it.” That’s BALLS! Not pandering.
A lot of Blacks in MS voted for Thad Cochran.
JLS: Re: Your Post #19: Thank you for a sensible, workable suggestion, even if your advice is not heeded by the GOP. Thanks, most of all, for posting something on here other the same old, regurgitated, defeatist crap I’ve been reading in this thread today. With the attitude of most people on here, no wonder we’ve had our ass handed to us in 4 of the last 6 Presidential Elections.
Thanks, I also think the 4 out of 6 elections stuff is sort of BS too.
The last 3 presidents have served 2 terms. If you start counting from a Dim, that makes them look better.
The last time a party won more than 2 consecutive presidential elections was the GOP when they won 3 in a row from 1980, 1984 and 1988. The last time the Dims won more than 2 presidential elections in a row was 1932, 1936, 1940 and 1948. So while the Dims have won 4 out of the last 6 presidential elections, the GOP has won 7 of the last 12 elections meaning the choice of six means people are ignoring 6 election of which the GOP candidate won 5.
I also find the idea that the Dims have an electoral advantage laughable. It is the GOP who for the most part win the small states in the mountain west. These are states that have a disproportional amount of electoral votes. It was after all a GOP candidate that won the electoral college in 2000 when the popular vote split pretty evenly or maybe even a majority voted Dim. (We really won’t ever know since various states do not count every last vote when their electoral votes are determined.)
The real difference is the Dims compete hard in Florida, Ohio etc and other even more GOP states. Obama even managed to win them and Va and IN and NC once. On the other hand the GOP concedes really close Dim states like WI and PA and does not even compete in places like MI.
Thanks. Very interesting analysis. I might add this: I do not think that Hillary will get near the Black vote that Obama got in either of his election victories. The new has worn off, the novelty is gone; they’ve had their Black President. I’m thinking that the Black vote for Hillary will be at least 5% less than it was for Obama. What say you?
I agree that the black vote is unlikely to turn out in the numbers for any other Dim as for Obama. I would guess the black turnout will be down a percentage point or 2 in the next election.
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