Can Mike Huckabee win back his Iowa flock?

KSPR-TV / CNN ^ | May 7, 2015 | Sara Murray

[2ndDivisionVet]

OSKALOOSA, Iowa (CNN) - If Mike Huckabee hopes to be anointed victor of the Iowa caucuses once again, he better prepare to retread a lot of familiar ground.

"Luck is good. Voters are better," Huckabee quipped as Nathan Johnson wished luck upon the newly official presidential candidate as he stopped by a local coffee shop Wednesday.

Huckabee had Johnson's vote when he won the 2008 Iowa caucuses. This time around, the 33-year-old from Oskaloosa is eyeing a top tier: Huckabee, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal. He's biding his time to see how the candidates perform as the race carries on.

"I think a lot of times they make mistakes down the road," Johnson said. "It's a long way to the caucuses."(continued)

[SoConPubbie]

I'm pretty much trusting the polls that all the people under 5% will not be finishing in the top 3 in any of them, so it's only a matter of time till they drop out - or they may not get in.

Probably shouldn't do that this early Jack.

Cruz started at 3% when he was running for Senator and after getting the GOP Nomination, Reagan was down by 30% to Carter.

Polls are unreliable.

[donna]

Tell me how anything you posted matters one little bit?

All the Republicans want big government and have weird comments and elite-media lies following them around; just like you follow Gov Huckabee around.

[donna]

Why are you answering other Freepers replies?

[SoConPubbie]

Tell me how anything you posted matters one little bit?

All the Republicans want big government and have weird comments and elite-media lies following them around; just like you follow Gov Huckabee around.

It matters, Donna, because it is the record he refuses to talk about. It goes both to Honesty, and how Huckabee looks at the fiscal issues.

He is not a fiscal conservative, he is a Christian Socialist when it comes to fiscal issues and his record bears out this characterization.

This is extremely important.

We have at least two candidates who are both Social Conservatives and Fiscal conservatives in this race who will be strong on Illegal Immigration.

Huckabee is a sure-fired loser, whose sole purpose is to make sure that any candidate to the right of Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are knocked out of the race.

We need a full-spectrum conservative, not a half-baked conservative like Huckabee.

[gov_bean_ counter]

Because I can.

[Vigilanteman]

Nope, just those supporting people like BO and Huckleberry who put more faith in nanny government and the personality cult which delivers it more than Jesus Christ.

[donna]

Then use his current statements to reveal the truth, not just elite-media reporting. I'll turn on him if necessary, but only with current issues.

It may be necessary to use him as VP because Christians stayed home for McCain and the last Bush votes were very close.

Those Huckabee loyalists may be the Republicans' only friends, unless those voters are insulted into staying home again.

[Jack Black]

Polls are unreliable.

I must respectfully disagree. In the last several elections we've been treated to a number of analysts, notably Nate Silver, who used polls, and specifically poll averaging to predict results and their predictions have been very accurate.

Any one poll can be off, but averages tend to make the data more accurate.

It's still a long way till the first vote, but I believe the rough outlines of the race are very clear. We do know that successful candidates are always near the top of the polls, not stuck under 5% perennially.

Nate Silver has another article on his site explaining that Christie is not going to be the nominee. It's based on favorabilty and familiarity polling. Most people know Christie, and most don't like him. Stick a fork in him, he's done.

I will bet you that none of the under 5% candidates will finish in the top three places in the first three contests: Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Specifically that's Perry, Kasich, Santorum, Graham, Jindal & Fiorina. The only one who might give me some worries is Graham, as a favorite son in South Carolina. But even if he got lucky there, it's the end of it for him.

[SoConPubbie]

I must respectfully disagree. In the last several elections we've been treated to a number of analysts, notably Nate Silver, who used polls, and specifically poll averaging to predict results and their predictions have been very accurate.

Jack, re-read what I posted to you.

List far out, polls are historically inaccurate.

Want more proof?

How about all the polls that stated that Rudy would win, 1+ years out from the primaries?

How about the polls that had Romney winning the election a couple months out from the election.

Polls are more accurate in the time frame of a month before the event.

[SoConPubbie]

Donna,

How many times do we have to tell you that he is only a PARTIAL conservative??

He is not POTUS material from a conservative perspective.

Now, if all you care about is the social issues, than vote for Huckabee.

If you want to seriously, and from a constitutional perspective, deal with the fiscal issues, you’ll have to vote for someone like Ted Cruz, or to a lessor degree, Scott Walker because Huckabee ain’t the man.

If you want to seriously deal with border issues, you will need someone like Ted Cruz or Scott Walker (though I do not trust his election year conversion on this issue) because Huckabee has shown he cannot be trusted on this issue either.

Huckabee simply is not presidential material.

[donna]

How many times do we have to tell you that he is only a PARTIAL conservative??

Prove it with his current positions on issues without using the gotcha CNN anti-Christian spin.

[SoConPubbie]

Prove it with his current positions on issues without using the gotcha CNN anti-Christian spin.

Sorry, but until Huckabee is honest about his past record, how am I supposed to believe any policy positions that might conflict with his actual record?

[Nervous Tick]

Leaving aside the fact that this is NOT an anti-Huckabee article... are you suggesting that if such an article is posted, you are somehow censored from replying, and therefore silenced?

I just don’t get the silencing part of your earlier post.

[rrrod]

Hard to believe anyone would actually vote for this con artist.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Hard to believe people send money to The Bakkers, Creflo Dollar or Jimmy Swaggert.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

FR refutes false elite-media attacks on conservatives.

Yes, we do. But since Mike Huckabee isn't a conservative, very few here, if any, are interested in what you are selling.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Added to which, at this point in the last two contests, the eventual winner of Iowa (Huckabee and then Santorum) was polling in the range that Jack claims won't finish in the top 3.

[Jack Black]

Nate Silver *never* had Romney winning the election. Neither did Dr. Wong.

But I agree, you can't accurately predict winners this far out, but you can accurately show who is totally failing to gain momentum.

For any of these laggards to remain in the race their numbers will need to start picking up significantly. I just don't see that, there are too many more qualified candidates in the top tier (including Cruz) who they will migrate to. When you (Mr. Average Voter) decide that your devotion to Candidate 2% is futile, you aren't going to go to candidate 3%, you'll go to a Jeb, Walker or someone else who looks viable.

Bachman, Huntsman, Perry were in this category last time.

[FreeReign]

I must respectfully disagree. In the last several elections we've been treated to a number of analysts, notably Nate Silver, who used polls, and specifically poll averaging to predict results and their predictions have been very accurate.

A year before the primary elections, there is no way to prove that the polls are correct. So potentially they could be corrupt.

And if the polls are anything like the folks who pay for them, which is the dominant media, then they are corrupt, across the board.

[St_Thomas_Aquinas]

-— I’m not saying they are doing it intentionally -—

Rove appeared at Huck’s announcement. He hasn’t appeared at any other Republican presidential candidate’s announcement.

I can read between the lines.