Early Handicapping

Townhall ^ | February 19, 2015 | Rich Galen

[2ndDivisionVet]

By this time next year we will have likely have been through the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primaries. We might have been through the hype of Nevada and headed to the warm welcome of South Carolina.

So. Let's take a look at where we are. These are in no particular order, so please don't demand to know why your favorite wasn't mentioned first.

On the Republican side, the surprise du jour has been Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker's quick start largely as a result of a speech he gave in Iowa a couple of weeks ago. Walker has run successfully in statewide elections three times (not counting primaries) since November 2010. That includes winning a recall election in 2012.

He hasn't won in a walk (getting between 52 and 53 percent each time) but Wisconsin is rarely confused with Texas on the Red-Blue continuum, and so gets high marks for his ability to attract non-base votes.

Jeb Bush is … Jeb Bush. I've been a Bush family groupie since Lee Atwater hired me to be spokesman for Vice President HW's PAC, the Fund for America's Future, so Jeb will be my default candidate - until or unless - someone convinces me otherwise.

If Bush and Walker are more-or-less leading the pack right now, here's my shorthand: The Bush team is not spending a great deal of time drawing up a plan to stop Walker. The Walker team is (or should be) spending time trying to figure out how to stop Bush.

How do I know this? Because I guarantee you that ever call from the Walker camp with every major donor includes this question: "How are you going to beat Jeb?"

And, Walker's campaign has to have an answer.

Senators Rand Paul (R-KY) and Ted Cruz (R-TX) have the same problem: They are seen as the Tea Party candidates at a time when the Tea Party is getting (pun intended) weaker.

If they end up chasing each other to the far edge of the Libertarian playbook, they will end up debating whether stop signs are a violation of our 4th Amendment rights.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) has to deal with Bush when the primary parade moves to Florida. More than that, he might suffer from Barack Obama's ascension to the Presidency after a stint in state politics and less than a full term in the U.S. Senate. Rubio won a close election in 2010 getting 48.9 percent, but in a three way race, got full marks for the win.

In my opinion, Gov. Chris Christie cannot win the GOP nomination. I'm from New Jersey and he annoys me. More tactically, it appears Bush, rushing into the vacancy created when Mitt Romney bowed out, is making great strides in securing the Wall Street money that Christie's people have been counting on.

Former Gov. Mike Huckabee's time has come and gone. He made a really strong run in 2008, but a weekly show on Fox News Channel is probably not enough to have maintained that level of loyalty and support.

Former Gov. Rick Perry might be the sleeper in this group. He doesn't need to jump very high to get over the bar he created in the 2012 cycle. All the "Oops" jokes that could possibly be written and told have been written and told. Still, he needs to demonstrate he can make though the early primaries and, more to the point, the early debates.

Ben Carson, Rick Santorum, Gov. Bobby Jindal. No chance. Carson has zero background to be President; Santorum had his run last time, and; Jindal has been pumping out emails at least once a day forever and they haven't made a dent.

Governors Pence and Kasich, Carly Fiorina, and Sen. Lindsay Graham are not, as of this writing, serious players.

This time eight years ago the GOP leader in the polls? Rudy Giuliani.

On the Democrat side, only one name matters right now: Hillary. If she pulls the trigger and runs she will likely be the nominee.

However, this time eight years ago the Charlie Cook/RT Strategies poll had Sen. Clinton leading Sen. Obama 42-20. Quinnipiac's poll had her leading 38-23.

A funny thing happened on the way to the West Front of the U.S. Capitol.

Also, keep a close eye on the Obama team dragging someone else into the race, if only to have a reason to plant negative stories about Clinton. If foreign affairs continues to be a central focus, the sniping over Sec. Clinton's four years at State will be at least illuminating.

On the Secret Decoder Ring page today: Links to the Wikipedia pages showing month-by-month polling eight years ago, and to Dr. Larry Sabato's early look at the candidates.

Also a Mullfoto from the "snow day" in Our Nation's Capital earlier this week.

(VIDEO-AT-LINK)

[2ndDivisionVet]

He thinks Rand Paul and Ted Cruz are similar? Huh?

[faithhopecharity]

I am not a Jeb supporter.
But if would help Jeb to change his name, at least, given how the Bush name has been so completely tarnished.

And why not? Whoever is the current Occupancy in our WH, his real name seems to be unknown as he’s been able to use a very nice-sounding (to Moslems anyway) moniker with almost no challenge.

And Hillary will probably run as Ms. Rodham, given she may very well ditch her bent-male=part sex-addict baggage?

Then Hillary can ‘marry” someone who she thinks may help her candidacy. Maybe her Muslim lady handler? Or maybe a ‘show husband’ — something much younger (obviously!) and ‘picturesque’ ...’beefcake eye candy” type muscle boy.... and who won’t bother her at night (maybe because he has a boy friend of his own?).... probably there is a movie actor suitable for this role? Or?

fun]
fun

[2ndDivisionVet]

Her “Muslim lady handler” is already married to Anthony Weiner, the former congressman and pervert.

[prisoner6]

*Her “Muslim lady handler” is already married to Anthony Weiner, the former congressman and pervert.*

What difference, at this point, does it make?

[faithhopecharity]

i see.
but the D’s are rapidly Transforming the very-old=fashioned-and-oppressive definition of marriage for us.
By 2016, Hillary could marry both her Muslim lady handler and Anthony together (plus any number more people she thinks might help her candidacy, plus a nice cuddly sheep for good measure)

she would get the IslamoNazi donations, massive support from the sexual pervert community (which the D’s are rapidly building up through Obamacare free paid sex change operations and hormone treatments, plus “57 genders education’ in public schools). Plus, of course the sheep vote. And cute sheeps can vote as many times as they want (there being, last time I checked anyway, no legal limit on the number of ballots sheep are permitted to cast).

:)

[faithhopecharity]

she could add Justin Bieber (without his clothes, of course) to her ‘marriage”

that should get her tons of the votes from one of her weakest demographics, youth

[nathanbedford]

… every major donor includes this question: "How are you going to beat Jeb?"

Money, that is the basis, the rationale, and the power of Jeb Bush and his potential. The assumption is universal and it applies to Hillary as much as it applies to Jeb: money is the mother's milk of politics and with a presidential campaign now costing just north of $1 billion it is the money not issues, not charisma, not integrity which counts most in the race for nomination and for election.

Who is to say the universal assumption is wrong? One has only to watch Watters' World to understand the ignorance of the man on the street who goes into the polling booth. Elections are won and lost on television because that is where these people get their information but television costs money.

Yes, it is true that a bad candidate probably cannot compensate with television ads for weakness of appeal but, all things being equal (which they never are) money trumps. One of the reasons that things are never equal is because Republicans are running not just against their opponent but against the media and now Republicans must run against demographic trends. It is not insignificant that immediately below this article appears an article telling us that the majority of newborns are children of color.

The problem for establishment Republicans is they have attempted to win elections with money from the top down. That is no longer a winning formula because the media and demographics are becoming too formidable. Conservatives, as opposed to Republicans, must approach elections from the bottom up and try to compensate for the absence of money, the opposition media, and the swelling demographic tsunami with real emotive appeal on issues. If the emotions of the electorate can be engaged, the money will follow.

God knows Obama has given any red-blooded conservatives all the issues he needs to wage a bottom-up campaign if someone like Ted Cruz (or Scott Walker) with forensic skills makes the case. We here on FreeRepublic must understand that we are very knowledgeable about issues and about politics but we are in a bubble and what makes sense to us is not even heard by the great unwashed. A conservative hero who would wage a bottom-up campaign that finds traction must really be media savvy-and lucky. The odds are long but the stakes are huge.

[octex]

He thinks Rand Paul and Ted Cruz are similar? Huh?
**********************************
It’s funny that the lame media keep saying Rand P is a TEA party favorite, when he clearly is not.

They (the left media) just keep trying to spin nutcases as being favored by the TEA party.

Cruz is the real deal, as far as I know right now.

[Gaffer]

Jeb Bush is … Jeb Bush. I've been a Bush family groupie since Lee Atwater hired me to be spokesman for Vice President HW's PAC, the Fund for America's Future, so Jeb will be my default candidate - until or unless - someone convinces me otherwise

Being a steadfast groupie in not a license for handicapping. It is opinion - nothing more.

[2ndDivisionVet]

“Culture is upstream from politics.” ~Andrew Breitbart

[KeyLargo]

Mike Rowe Tells America (and Howard Dean) What Matters More Than Having A College Degree
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[Din Maker]

I've been a Bush family groupie since Lee Atwater hired me to be spokesman for Vice President HW's PAC....so Jeb will be my default candidate - until or unless - someone convinces me otherwise.

I'd be ashamed to admit that I was that freakin' shallow; basing my support for a candidate on the fact that I had a minimum wage job working for his Da-Da 35 years ago. Are all of Rich Galen's Townhall articles this asinine?