Posted on 11/02/2014 7:59:42 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
By this point in an election year, when polls are coming in by the bucketload late in the evening, you can get a sense for which pollsters are taking fresh samples of public opinion and which are herding toward the conventional wisdom.
J. Ann Selzer, whose firm Selzer & Company conducts the Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, is in the former group: She’s always been one to trust what her data is telling her. On Dec. 31, 2007, Selzer’s poll was among the first to show a large lead for Barack Obama in the Iowa Democratic caucuses — most other polls had a small edge for Hillary Clinton. But Selzer’s poll proved to almost exactly match Obama’s margin in the caucuses four days later.
In September this year, Selzer’s poll showed a 6 percentage-point lead for the Republican Joni Enrst in the Iowa Senate race, defying others that had shown the race as a tossup. Although an early October Selzer poll showed the Democrat Bruce Braley narrowing his deficit to just 1 point, the final Des Moines Register poll, released Saturday night, has Ernst up 51-44 — a 7-point advantage. Other polls of Iowa show Ernst ahead, on average, by a percentage point or two....
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
i am cautiously optimistic but I dare say I will be like Thomas the Apostle.
Top Senate Races
Colorado Gardner (R) +3.8
Iowa Ernst (R) +1.8
North Carolina Hagan (D) +1.1
Georgia Perdue (R) +2.2
Kansas Orman (I) +0.7
Alaska Sullivan (R) +2.6
New Hampshire Shaheen (D) +2.5
Kentucky McConnell (R) +6.5
Louisiana Cassidy (R) +4.6
Arkansas Cotton (R) +7.1
Ernst surges to 7 point lead in Iowa Senate race
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3222350/posts
That’s why some of us were disappointed when the thread was pulled last night (Gannett violation?), we knew it was the real state of the elections.
Using the new Ernst index, all ten of those states are wins for 55-43-2.
That’s a tsunami.
...we knew it was the real state of the elections.
That’s right.
Even Dingy Harry agrees with us on the as-Iowa-goes math.
I had to be at work at 5am today so I couldn’t stay up to find a non-Gannett source so we could clink some more champagne glasses on this (finally!) settling of the dust.
And Cruz has built some serious support in Iowa over the last year, more’s to celebrate!
when Iowa turns red, Wasserman will accuse 60% of “White Iowans” of being racists.
Short list…add at will…..
Nevada Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford is trying to oust the pro-Bundy militia from his district, citing constituents who are bothered by the presence of the self-appointed militia. Horsford also voted for gun control…..voted yes for Obamacare…voted with his party (and race)…regardless of what Harry Reid was doing to this nation.
Charlie Crist FL. endored President Barack Obama for re-election; He gets a D from the NRA; pro life except when it comes to abortion.
Sen. Mark Udall (Colo.) will receive support from an out-of-state gun control group in his reelection campaign, after backing stricter gun laws in the past. Voted with the United Nations for gun control"U.N. Small Arms Treaty". Pro Obama and Harry Reid....
Recently, at a New York City fundraiser Michelle Obama endorsed Senator Mary Landrieu - LA. and said that electing Landrieu is "critical" to enacting President Obama's anti-Second Amendment agenda; wrongly spread the lies about keeping your doctors etc…joined in the Obamacare scam; Landrieu signed the manifesto, "A New Politics for a New America" a cleverly worded doctrine neither Communist nor Socialist but far closer than a Republic.
Maggie Hassan, NH. is not the Second Amendments friend; she said this…. “Hillary Clinton is obviously somebody who’s done so many things and is so qualified to be president,” and the question is…WHAT THINGS MS. HASSAN? Remarks like that should worry anyone.
Senator Jeanne Shaheen. Gov. N.H. voted to give your gun rights to the United Nations…voted for Obamacare….
Dan Malloy – CT. gets NRA rating of F Fred DuVal - AZ if he wins, he will put his support behind the implementation of Colorado-like gun control. Little known about his stance on Obamacare, and most issues….several slices short of a complete loaf….party hack.
Ann Selzer should spike the football... Ernst winning by 8. Final DMR poll showed her up 7.— Josh Kraushaar (@HotlineJosh) November 5, 2014
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