2012 Presidential Election Electoral Vote Map & Projection

Freedom's Lighthouse ^ | February 17, 2012

[Clintonfatigued]

270 Electoral Votes Needed To Win

Likely GOP Votes - 224

Likely Dem Votes - 217

Tossup Votes - 97

[txhurl]

I dunno, I’m kinda partial to Kiolbassa.

[txhurl]

Can you explain to me why Iowa voted for Obama (and is likely to again)?

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Because Iowans vote their interests, and ethanol subsidies and requirements at gas stations and flexfuel in auto production is big. That’s how Santorum won the caucus.

[scrabblehack]

I have noticed socially conservative pols do well in the Iowa caucus: Huckabee and Pat Robertson, for instance.

[SnuffaBolshevik]

Same map + N.C., Virginia and Ohio go GOP. 270 right there.

Nevada, Iowa and maybe a few others will be bonus balls.

But 9 months is an eternity in politics.

[cripplecreek]

The midwest is a major political fault zone these days and some major moves have been made. Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan have had some major union fights and some big wins. The union fight in Michigan hasn’t been as loud but we have picked up some wins and now a conservative UAW group has appeared over the horizon and is fighting along with us.

[webstersII]

Thanks for the info. I was really wondering.

[Rashputin]

"I dunno, I’m kinda partial to Kiolbassa."

LOL. I have to agree with you on that.

[cripplecreek]

Every member and former member of congress in the race has supported ethanol subsidies at some point. If you listen to Gingrich explain his environmental solutions agency, he still supports the subsidies.

This is only one source I grabbed but I encourage you to look for more if you wish.

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/12/gingrich-backed-by-ethanol-lobby-supports-subsidy.php

I’m not beating up on Gingrich over this because he’s hardly the only guilty party here.

[txhurl]

bttt

About half of these ‘tossup’s have been leaning our way.

[Eccl 10:2]

Great stuff - thanks!

Question: How can New Mexico elect Gov Martinez and be considered Dem. I might understand a toss-up, but Dem??

[Eccl 10:2]

I think that map is wrong on Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

And although the DNC convention will be here, I think NC will be red also. Our Dem Governor Perdue announced recently in a surprise she will not seek re-election.

Although somewhat RINO, Republicans have good depth, credibility, and presence here. Former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) will run for governor and likely win.

I would have to believe NC will be a lean Red.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks Clintonfatigued.

[Lazlo in PA]

There was an interview with Axlerod after the ‘08 election where he summed up the Obummer win in VA. He said that they focused on one Northern VA area where they knew they could turn enough moderates out to win the state. A mathematics game. That game will not work this time. Moderates have left this idiot in droves just like the White Catholic and union vote is leaving him in PA. Some tricks can be played only one time as Karl Rove can attest to.

[Clintonfatigued]

Obama ran better than expected in Arizona. His campaign believes that only home state loyalty to McCain put it in the Republican column, so they will campaign vigorously to win it this year. IMHO, Republicans have an edge, but it could go either way.

[Clintonfatigued]

” How can New Mexico elect Gov Martinez and be considered Dem. I might understand a toss-up, but Dem??”

Susana Martinez benefitted from the massive unpopularity of the previous Governor, scandal-tainted Bill Richardson, and her opponent was his lieutenant governor.

[Mountain Mary]

I meant to ask about Mittens vs Santorum’s chances in Az.

[Clintonfatigued]

I think that Mittens is the favorite. The state has a significant Mormon population as well as a number of white-collar workers and entrepreneurs who may like his business background.

[Mountain Mary]

That’s what I thought..If Az and Mi’s primaries weren’t on the same day, a Santorum win in Mi.might have influenced Mittens vote totals in Az.

[Clintonfatigued]

You make intersting points on Michigan. Outstate Michigan showed TEA Party sentiment in 2010. But Michigan is still dominated by Detroit and its close-in suburbs. There are also other liberal bastions to be considered (Flint, Bay City, Lansing), as well as increasingly Muslim Dearborn.

[Impy]

His campaign believes that only home state loyalty to McCain put it in the Republican column,

Then his campaign rides the short bus. It would have been a little closer without McCain but still a GOP win. And even if he wins reelection this year it will be much closer than his easy win in 2008. Arizona is not in play unless for some reason Obama wins a landslide (in which case it doesn't matter anyway).