Obama ran better than expected in Arizona. His campaign believes that only home state loyalty to McCain put it in the Republican column, so they will campaign vigorously to win it this year. IMHO, Republicans have an edge, but it could go either way.
I meant to ask about Mittens vs Santorum’s chances in Az.
Then his campaign rides the short bus. It would have been a little closer without McCain but still a GOP win. And even if he wins reelection this year it will be much closer than his easy win in 2008. Arizona is not in play unless for some reason Obama wins a landslide (in which case it doesn't matter anyway).