Posted on 10/27/2010 6:58:53 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The latest rage - or outrage - on the right is this Newsweek Poll. You know, the Newsweek poll - the one that said that Obama has a 54% approval rating and that 48% of registered voters prefer to vote for a Democrat, while only 42% lean Republican. That Newsweek Poll.
Seems the Repuglinuts don't like that poll because it doesn't fit their teabag revolution narrative. They slant their brows in angry scowls, slam their hammy fists and declare the poll an outlier, unfit for human consumption!!!
"Look at Real Clear Politics," they insist. "Their totally and completely non-partisan analysis of polling numbers shows that the Newsweek poll is a fake, a lie, a CONSPIRACY - all designed by the VLWC to raise the specter of Republican failure only days before the greatest and most important election of forever."
Oh, what a world!
Hmmmm.
So what about that Newsweek poll? Was it an outlier? Was it in any way valid? Are we desperate for a sprig of hope? Are we totally delusional?
After all, that Newsweek poll totally disagrees with all those other, much, MUCH more legitimate polls that show Obama with a -0.0% likey-likey rating and a generic ballot that suggests a pickup for the Republicans somewhere between 1.2 million and infinity seats in the House.
The Reality is that these pollsters sometimes have a difficult time adjusting to a thing we all refer to as "Progress". Say it with me Pro-gress.
The progress to which I refer is that of cell phone use, and not just your usual, everyday, annoyance-on-the-bus cell phone use. I'm talking about the hardcore take-your-landline-and-shove-it cell phone use.
That's right. Cell-Phone-only households now account for over 20% of all households in America. That supersedes the amount of landline-only households.
The Newsweek poll includes these cell-phone-only households. ALL of the others do not!
That is VERY significant. The other polling outfits ignore 20% of all Americans in their polling - that's 1 in every 5 people. They effectively don't exist - or at least don't matter to the Gallups, USA Todays, and stinkers like Rasmussen.
Not surprisingly, these cell-phone-only people tend to be overwhelmingly young, urban, and Democrats.
And what about the landline-only households? Surprise!! They tend to be older, rural, and Republicans - so they were sure to be included in the polls!
As you might have guessed, when you poll an electorate that includes the (less than) 20% of high-concentration Republicans, and EXCLUDES the 20% of high-concentration Democrats, then the poll will tend to favor the Republicans - alot. Include those Democrats, and all of a sudden the polls start painting a picture of a whole new world. THAT makes sense.
But wait, there's more...
'Registered Voters' vs. 'Likely Voters'
When looking at the 'Registered Voter' Model vs. the 'Likely Voter' Model, Republicans will feverishly note that even when the 'registered voter' model gives hope to the Democrats, the 'likely voter' model trashes these hopes like an empty beercan against a redneck's forehead.
But not this time. The Newsweek poll uses the 'likely voter' model and the Democrats still kick ass. That's what happens when you actually include the Democrats in the poll. Funny, right.
And as a bonus, we have this - the Newsweek poll included 92 people who said they had already voted - and even amongst them (Though a very small sample) the Democrats won. The examiner smartly notes that "Polls of people who have already voted are generally considered more reliable than polls of how people will vote in the future."
Genius!!
So was the Newsweek poll an outlier? Perhaps, but that doesn't make it wrong. That just makes it different.
Commonsense makes it right.
Democrats will keep the Senate AND the House.
GOTV! GOTV! GOTV!
BONUS!! The LA Times teamed up with USC to pop out a poll that showed the mythical 'enthusiasm gap' closing like a conservative's mind to science.
The survey asked respondents to rate on a 10-point scale how enthusiastic they felt about voting this year. In September, when the poll asked that question, Republicans had a big advantage, with 42% of registered Republicans statewide rating their enthusiasm as a 10, compared with 27% of registered Democrats. In the latest survey, conducted statewide Oct. 13-20, that 15-point gap had nearly disappeared: 39% of registered Republicans rated their enthusiasm at 10, compared with 35% of registered Democrats.
A similar pattern shows up on ideology. In September, poll respondents who identified themselves as "conservative" were far more likely to rate their enthusiasm at 10 than those who said they were "liberal" -- 45% to 27%. In the October survey, the two were nearly at parity -- 40% of conservatives and 38% of liberals, a gap within the poll's 2.5% margin of error.
Yup. It’s becoming the norm, and it has no party affiliation.
I got news for this deranged brainiac...there are some devices that exist for screening incoming calls...they are called ANSWERING MACHINES and CALLER ID(not to mention ignoring the call, period).
This feller is headed for a big emotional fall.
they are so funny, don’t they know these polls are weighted?
Regardless of cell phone no cell phone, we got democrats voting republican.
Yeah, Mr. Ball, Tom, as he would appear in an ancient paper product phone book. Only commies have cell phones. Uh, huh.
Jim, why is your sign-up date October 2010?
The author of this article is an IDIOT! Typical, lame, elitist mentality. He thinks that only hip, young people like him don’t have land lines. No one in my extended family has a land line anymore, young and old. And 99% of us are conservative.
Lonely people longing to hear a human voice.
I’m in the cellphone only demographic.
It makes no difference, respectable polls keep track of the demographics of the people they’re polling and make adjustments as necessary; and if they over count older people as a percentage of the population - take a wild guess who votes.
There was a time just a few years ago, when cutting the landline or never having had one in the first place, was a significant thing. Young people, the technologically inclined, highly mobile high income individuals.
This is no longer true at all. We have had going on three years of severe economic pressure. The cell phone is a fact of life with greater utility than the landline. That landline represents, what, $30.00, $40.00, $50.00 per month depending upon where you are? Completely redundant, paying money to be badgered by telemarketers. Everybody you know calls your cell, save very elderly relatives who just can’t wrap their minds around anything else.
This is a nonissue. There is no phantom Democrat advantage hidden in polling due to cell phone only.
Cell phone only here also! But even before the “cell phone only” stage, I didn’t answer calls that I didn’t recognize.
Reading screeds like this make me more adamant in my opposition to legalizing drugs... a mind is a terrible thing to waste, and his is wasted in multiple ways.
PS. Yes, other polls ARE checking with cell phone users. geez.
I have the magicJack VOIP since it’s almost free and wife has SmartTalk cell. Works for us.
Even though we have a land line...the calls automatically go to our cells...hubby hangs up on them.
I know talking about little things like “facts”, “math”, and “science” (as in, real science, not ideology passing as “science”) to a leftist is like presenting a crucifix made out of garlic and holy water to a vampire, but...
Including/excluding cell phone only households only skews the results if the two populations are statistically different in their views and behavior on one of the bases other than that the results are weighted by.
If we were to presume, for example, that Democrats are considerably more likely to rely only on cell phones than Republicans (again, this is just a presumption for the sake of illustration), it has no bearing on the results of a survey that weights based on modeled party identification, unless the subset of Democrats who are cell phone only differ from landline Democrats in a statistically significant manner. Why? Because the results are already adjusted to fit turnout models weighted by party ID. Which Democrats get polled is unimportant if Democrats as a whole generally respond the same way.
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