2012 Presidential Power Rankings: January

Race 4 2012 ^ | January 16, 2010 | Max Twain

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1. Mitt Romney – Gov. Romney remains in the best position to win the GOP nomination, however the fallout from Gov. Mike Huckabee’s clemency of a cop killer may hurt Romney as well. If the clemency problems force Huckabee out of the race, then Gov. Sarah Palin could consolidate social conservative support in the early states and pose a serious threat to Romney’s chances. On the other hand, Romney has held steady throughout the year, experiencing none of the problems that have plagued his potential rivals. That doesn’t mean that trouble isn’t rearing it’s head around the corner. Gov. Romney’s healthcare plan will likely loom large throughout the next year, with the New Hampshire Union Leader firing the first major shot across the bow in a recent article that also showed signs of support for another Romney rival, Gov. Tim Pawlenty. Although this is a major hurdle, Romney’s rivals also have major obstacles, from Gov. Palin’s resignation, Gov. Pawlenty’s cap-and-trade problems, to Gov. Huckabee’s clemencies. Whomever handles these problems the best will likely be the front-runner come 2012. For now, Gov. Romney is in the best position to do that.

2. Tim Pawlenty – Minnesota’s governor has made some significant moves in his pursuit of the 2012 nomination. He has created a PAC, Freedom First, and announced several major hires from previous campaigns. He has also taken direct aim at both Barack Obama’s and Mitt Romney’s healthcare plan, likely to be a favorite line of attack as Pawlenty sets out to overtake 2012 frontrunner. He is quickly becoming an establishment alternative to Romney, and attracting early insider support. His efforts have earned him some early praise from key players in 2012, namely an early indication of support by the influential New Hampshire Union Leader. With Palin and Huckabee potentially leaving politics behind in pursuit of success on television and other areas, Pawlenty now appears to be Romney’s top rival. However, any indication that Palin and/or Huckabee may break their Fox News contract and return public life would instantly make the campaign more difficult for the Minnesota governor.

3. John Thune – Senator Thune continues to quietly build for a 2012 run. While having no announced opponent yet for his 2010 reelection bid, Sen. Thune still has amassed an impressive war chest, retained a top-level campaign manager, started a PAC, and fundraised for candidates in Iowa. Slowly but surely the media is beginning to catch on, with new profiles about the junior senator from South Dakota appearing on CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post. Thune’s social conservative credentials could also allow him to join the chorus of candidates likely to benefit from Huckabee’s problems. Thune brings both the social conservative credentials needed to win over the early states like Iowa, as well as significant establishment support that is needed for overall success in the primaries. With other conservative candidates seemly leaving politics for careers in media, Thune is rising quickly to potentially fill the void, with both his intangibles, his giant-killer reputation, and his conservative credentials leading the way.

4. Sarah Palin – After taking hits early on, Palin has stormed back with her wildly successful book, Going Rogue, and has seen a marginal increase in her numbers among republicans and independents. But the success of her book is not the most important factor in her return to contention, but rather the damaging clemency revelations that could mortally wound Gov. Huckabee’s political career. Palin can now galvanize the social conservative movement behind her, making the former Alaska governor the overwhelming front-runner in the all important Iowa Caucuses. This potential, as well as a natural base of support in South Carolina, could help the governor build an unstoppable momentum towards the nomination. However, her decision to sign a multi-year contract with Fox News seems to indicate that Palin could very well leave political office behind, instead choosing to remain in the private sector writing books and becoming a TV star. Due to these tempting private sector opportunities, Palin as well as Mike Huckabee may forgo political office all together, deciding to stay active politically more as pundits and celebrity conservatives. These opportunities are why I feel Palin is now less likely to run, and therefore why she is being dropped in the rankings.

5. Newt Gingrich – The former Speaker may have lost some face with the conservative base in endorsing Dede Scozzafava in the NY-23 election, but he may have gained support from the crucial GOP establishment. Despite the Speaker’s impressive resume and historic electoral successes, his bombastic past still leaves many in the establishment wary. But being a team player in NY-23 may get the establishment on board the Gingrich train, granting the former Speaker a chance to make history and complete a legendary comeback. Nixon accomplished it, and Newt may be next. With Palin and Huckabee potentially staying out of the 2012 field, Gingrich could potentially rally the base and become an alternative to the more moderate Romney and Pawlenty. He has recently mentioned himself as a potential 2012 contender and also plans to release a new Contract with America, which could be the policy foundation for his presidential bid.

6. Mike Huckabee – The former Arkansas governor has run into serious trouble with the revelation that he granted clemency to notorious cop-killer Maurice Clemmons. The sheer amount of clemencies and pardons is jarring, with the governor having granted more clemencies and pardons then several surrounding states’ governors combined. The volume alone would lead you to believe that Clemmons will not be the last we hear of the people released or commuted by Governor Huckabee. While Huckabee’s die-hard supporters will likely stick by their man allowing his poll numbers to hold steady, this will certainly come back to haunt him, as rivals hammer the former governor with his poor judgment in these cases. A GOP establishment already wary of Huckabee now has the last reason they will ever need to abandon him completely, and will work to force him from the 2012 race. If Huckabee was reluctant to leave his TV show before this news broke, I imagine his Fox News deal will grow only more enticing as the primaries get closer. The promise of a lucrative private sector career on TV and radio may prove too much to surrender for another run for office, a temptation now shared by Huckabee’s new Fox News colleague, Sarah Palin.

7. Haley Barbour – Governor Barbour is perhaps the greatest strategist in the party. He showed off that talent earlier this month, helping to lead two GOP candidates to victory in Virginia and NJ, a great start for the head of the RGA. With his sights set on major races all over the country in 2010, from California, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Michigan, Florida, and Texas, Gov. Barbour could not only continue to help revive the party but could also collect enough chits along the way to make himself a strong contender in 2012. With Speaker Gingrich’s mishap in NY-23, it could be Gov. Barbour who emerges as the 1994′er to lead a new generation of Republicans back to power, and himself to the White House.

8. Rick Perry – The long serving Texas Governor has bounced back from poor early polls to take a solid lead in the GOP primary against Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. A successful primary followed by likely reelection will help raise Gov. Perry’s profile further in the national party. He is already winning populist support for his anti-Washington screed, and won the endorsement of Gov. Palin. But it’s his state’s strong economy that just might push the Texas Governor into contention. As blue states like California and New Jersey head into spiraling fiscal crisis, Texas stands as a strong example of successful conservative economics in the face of a President pushing tax-and-spend liberalism. This factor, combined with a long, experienced career can put Perry in a very strong position. The uniting of the Tea Party base and his large, deep-pocketed Texas donors would give him a strong chance in the early states.

9. Mike Pence - The conservative Indiana congressman is a rising star in the GOP, and now more then ever he seems to be gearing up for a potential 2012 presidential bid. Rep. Pence’s intentions have been tough to read due to the multiple opportunities for higher office currently within his reach. In 2012, both the governorship and Richard Luger’s senate seat could be open, and due to the unpopular Obama agenda even Sen. Evan Bayh could be vulnerable in a 2010 race. Despite these potential opportunities, it appears Pence has a bigger office in mind. The recent additions to his campaign team, notably Phil Gramm, Ed Meese, and Tony Perkins as advisors and Kellyanne Conway as a campaign strategist, seem to indicate Pence will aim for the 2012 presidential nomination. With his conservative credentials, his Tea Party connections, and his strong communication skills, Pence could be a real dark horse, especially if Palin or Huckabee pass on the race.

10. Jeb Bush – The former Florida governor has been more active of late, stumping recently in Ohio for GOP candidate John Kasich, and fundraising for other candidates around the country. As Obama’s numbers get worse and the Bush brand slowly rebuilds, talk of Jeb returning to public life is growing. He still commands the vast Bush network, and is increasingly gathering chits by fundraising in key races around the country. The biggest potential chit, however, remains his potential endorsement of Marco Rubio in the Florida senate primary, an endorsement that could put Rubio over the top while also endearing the more moderate Bush brother to the conservative grassroots. Such a high profile, high reward endorsement could push Jeb right back into the 2012 spotlight.

Honorable Mention: Rudy Giuliani, Mitch Daniels, Eric Cantor, George Pataki, Dick Cheney, Bobby Jindal, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum

[Clemenza]

I think I had her for theology my sophomore year.

[ellery]

Pence could be interesting...