Posted on 11/23/2008 1:34:39 PM PST by SmithL
SACRAMENTO — Some California Republicans are saying they have found a key to expanding their fast-shrinking base, and it lies in the most glaring aspect of the Proposition 8 election results: the minority vote that went overwhelmingly for it.
With seven in 10 blacks and 53 percent of Latinos voting in favor of the ballot measure to ban same-sex marriage, Republicans say they are confident that their common interests with minorities on traditional family and social issues can help forge new political alliances.
"It shows there are issues the Republican party and minorities can agree on," said Mike Spence, president of the California Republican Assembly, a conservative GOP organization. "We'd be the stupid party if we didn't try to outreach on issues we already agree on. Why not start with issues we know we can articulate with African-Americans and Latinos?"
The argument is tenuous, at best, say some political observers, who note that blacks almost unanimously voted for President-elect Barack Obama, while Latinos voted 2-for-1 for the first black president in U.S. history. Blacks historically have been the most loyal Democratic voters, while Latinos rarely provide more than one-third of their vote to Republicans.
But, while Obama won California by 24 points over Republican nominee John McCain, there were signs that minorities could be swayed on social issues in downticket races. Gary Jeandron, a Republican candidate for the 80th Assembly District in Imperial and Riverside counties, lost to Democrat Manuel Perez but drew voters beyond the Republican base. He lost with 47 percent of the vote — 12 points higher than the 36 percent GOP registration.
"He was campaigning to Latino folks on those family issues," said Ron Nehring, the Republican state party chairman. "There was an opportunity that Republican candidates saw to connect, and Gary did that. He made specific appeals on traditional marriage and other family issues. Certainly, there's an opportunity to connect with minority voters on family issues where Democrats have abandoned them."
Legislative Democrats who have been active in opposing Proposition 8 but represent districts that voted overwhelmingly in favor of the ban on same-sex marriage could become campaign targets in 2010, Spence said.
Republicans have had some success in appealing to Latinos — President Bush won up to 40 percent of the Latino vote in 2004, causing many political experts to predict a realignment based on social and economic alliances.
But that fell apart in the ensuing clashes over the nation's immigration policies, in which Republicans espoused — through what many called nativist rhetoric — punishing sanctions such as deporting illegal immigrants and cracking down on border crossings.
A quandary the GOP faces, observers say, is how to pivot away from the hard-line position on immigration policies without driving away party faithful, who consider immigration to be a top issue.
Republicans are right to understand that minorities will be key to reviving their party, said Michelle Michelson, political science professor at Cal State East Bay, but they are narrowing their choices if they think they can pull them into their tent on social issues.
"It comes down to which direction Republicans go — do they retrench and go to their base, or do they go to the middle to reach out to voters they lost to Democrats," Michelson said. "The country is becoming more diverse and if Republicans can't get some serious support from these demographic groups, they're in trouble."
Support for Proposition 8 came from older voters across the demographic groups, which bodes poorly for Republicans, Michelson said. As the younger population grows, their tolerance for such issues as same-sex marriage will become more common and out of step with the conservative views that hold sway in the GOP.
And even as Republicans try to make inroads with minorities on social issues such as same-sex marriage, Democrats are just as determined to frame the issue as one of civil rights and equal protection — long-standing core principles that unite minorities and the Democratic party.
"It's a wedge issue, and it's going back to the Contract with America and Newt Gingrich's playing politics with cultural issues," said Assemblyman Sandre Swanson, D-Oakland, who was elected this week as chairman of the Legislative Black Caucus. "The problem is this is a different time, and we find ourselves in a national crisis. Social issues are not going to decide the political agenda."
The overwhelming support among blacks for Proposition 8 is no surprise, said Walt Allen, a black city councilman in Covina and vice chairman of the state Republican party.
"These have been the values black communities have held forever," said Allen, a former assistant chief in the state Department of Justice who now is a deputy commissioner on the Board of Parole Hearings. "But it will take a lot more than the strategy behind the results of Proposition 8. It's more complex. It will take more wherewithal to make inroads."
Republicans need to recruit more blacks into elective office to showcase the varied philosophical views among blacks, Allen said. And they can start by naming Michael Steele, Maryland's former lieutenant governor, who is black, as chairman of the Republican National Committee. Steele would become at least a symbolic alternative to Obama, he said.
"That would be a glorious step in the right direction," Allen said.
Glorious for Republicans, perhaps, but symbolic and insignificant amidst the backdrop of an Obama presidency, said Jack Pitney, government professor at Claremont McKenna College.
Friction between Republicans and blacks runs too deep to overcome, he said, starting with Barry Goldwater's vote in 1964 against the Civil Rights Act and codified four years later under President Nixon's Southern Strategy, in which appeals to racist sentiments ushered in a GOP electoral stronghold in the South and black loyalty to the Democratic Party.
And with Obama about to become the nation's first black president, Republicans will be nothing more than an afterthought for blacks, Pitney said.
There is "absolutely no chance Republicans can make the slightest dent among blacks," Pitney said. "Every few years, Republicans come up with some plan to crack the black vote and it's never worked. There's simply too much distrust of Republicans, the perception that Republicans have played the race card. It may be unfair but nevertheless it's a powerful perception."
Government freebies and handouts usually trump a voter’s personal values. The DemocRATS know and understand that.
That is NOT the source of friction. The source of friction is the idea of self-reliance and being responsible for your own decisions and actions vs. the victim mentality of modern Black Culture. Unless and until the Steeles, Rices, and even Cosbys somehow penetrate the Black Community and inculcate these values, Blacks will never vote Republican.
Oh, and Republicans believing in those values is important, too.
Never forget that a vote for prop 8 was a vote against gay marriage. How many ignorant Democrats do you think there were who thought they were voting for gay marriage when they voted for prop 8?
The black community is heavily for both school choice and school voucher programs, and these things should also be seriously discussed by the GOP often from now on.
It is ironic that the average African American voter (note: voter, not the stereotypical gangbanger that some like to bring up as an archetype) has down-stream voting trends that at times run quite contrary to the Democrat party meme ....Proposition 8 was just an example. That voting block, as well as a large component of the Latin American voting block, are basically used every 4 years by the Democrats.
“Government freebies and handouts usually trump a voter’s personal values. The DemocRATS know and understand that.”
You’re right, and that’s why the Republican party is in so much trouble for the foreseeable future.
“How many ignorant Democrats do you think there were who thought they were voting for gay marriage when they voted for prop 8?”
That would be pretty funny, actually.......
And here I thought only alot of racial pandering and groveling would work.
It's not solely their responsibility to do this. The GOP/conservative groups have to be pro-active to get their field offices in minority communities with campaigns that bode well with the residents. If the GOP pinches 5% off the minority vote, the dems will lose.
Rice?
Where have you been? She has shown her self to be more like Jesse Jackson than Ronald Reagan.
She was clearly an Obama supporter and most assuredly voted for him. Cosby probably did as well, although I don't have statements from him to lead me to say so positively.
Why are Republicans so eager to lavish praise on mediocre politicians and phony conservatives just because they are black?
Lets stop focusing on blacks and start focusing more on Hispanics. Unfortunately blacks are a lost cause, who have been electing the same democrats that have helped decimate their people through abortion and lax crime laws.
Rice got where she got on her own merits. She has never played the victim nor race card that I am aware of.
And it is Cosby who has been exhorting the Black Community to get their act together, get an education, quit playing the victim card.
They aren’t Republicans but they do share some important values with Conservatives (which many of our Republican leaders Do not).
bookmark
We have to admit within the next 10 years we will have gay marriage in some states. Will the social fabric of society crumble? I don’t know. Do I approve? At this point it is getting more annoying than anything. Those of us who are not strict Christians choose to fight other battles more closely like redistribution of wealth and raising capital gains taxes.
Legislative Democrats who have been active in opposing Proposition 8 but represent districts that voted overwhelmingly in favor of the ban on same-sex marriage could become campaign targets in 2010, Spence said.
THAT’S WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING FOR YEARS: We need to do this, if we can reach out to Christian/traditional minorities on both Abortion, pro-traditional marriage as well as economic grounds: We can win!! They are the future of the Republican Party..!
There is “absolutely no chance Republicans can make the slightest dent among blacks,” Pitney said. “Every few years, Republicans come up with some plan to crack the black vote and it’s never worked. There’s simply too much distrust of Republicans, the perception that Republicans have played the race card. It may be unfair but nevertheless it’s a powerful perception.”
This depends upon if Obama actually keeps his promise to his “gay” allies..and abortion lobby. IF he DOES in a BIG way then he will alienate all those Christian (and even some Muslim) blacks.
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