Posted on 11/09/2002 6:54:28 PM PST by Bella_Bru
An opinion, for my fellow Republicans, fellow candidates, and other interested parties:
In the early morning hours of Wednesday, November 6th, reporters, commentators, analysts and pundits alike all began employing the "wave" metaphor to describe the results of the previous night's election. That is, a historic wave of Republican victories swept the nation from Maryland and Massachusetts all the way to Hawaii. Only problem was, once that wave hit the Sierras it skipped right over California before heading to the Aloha State. But why?
Against all historical odds, President George W. Bush's party not only held onto held onto a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives but actually built upon it. Similarly, enough U.S. Senate seats were won to return that chamber to the control of the G.O.P. All but unheard of for a president to accomplish in the off-year election of his first term.
And still ... in California, the most corrupt, disliked and ineffective governor in recent memory won reelection, and Democrats, with one exception yet to be decided, seem to have plucked up all other statewide offices.
To be sure, the news was not entirely bad. The mad redistricting deal cut last year did not secure a legislative status quo for either party. All 20 Republican members of California's House delegation were reelected, although they will not be joined by anyone new, as many expected Republican Senator Dick Monteith to defeat Democrat Assemblyman Dennis Cardoza to pick up Gary Condit's seat. It didn't happen.
Even in the state legislature, gains were made. As it looks now, Republican Senate candidate Jeff Denham holds a slim lead in his race against Democrat Rusty Areias, and will add one more Republican to the upper chamber, and in the Assembly the G.O.P. looks set to pick up two seats, with one more in the 30th A.D. still very close.
Not bad when you consider the combined brilliance of D.C. and Sacramento Republican legislators, as far as redistricting, was to drop their guns and not even put up a fight for some fairer districts, or even a court challenge. Instead, cutting a deal with the Democrats to eliminate (sacrifice) Steve Horn's district and protect the incumbents was all it took. Seriously, the French accents on Vichy Republicans are not very endearing...
Even still, take all that into account, and all Republicans can hope for statewide (to their credit, all our nominees for statewide office held their Democrat opposition to less than 9% leads at most) is that Tom McClintock will be able to turn his four-tenths of a percent lag behind Steve Westly into a lead and victory for the office of state controller. The next best vote getter was Bill Simon, five points behind Gray Davis, far better than many observers ever expected, surprising to many including Davis I think, but still, a defeat for us all. Then rounding out our top three comes Keith Olberg, our secretary of state candidate who finished four points behind Kevin Shelley.
But why? Simon carried more counties than his predecessor Dan Lungren did, and Davis had an atrocious record to try to defend. The answer is turnout. The total number of Republicans registered and eligible to vote on November 5th was 5,388,895. At last count, Simon received 2,814,399 votes. Just over two and a half million Republicans were not motivated to go to the polls and vote for Simon or any Republican. Why? And a great many Republicans who did turnout but didn't vote for Simon did vote for McClintock. Why? Less than half a million votes (330,230 to be exact) is all that separated Gray Davis from unemployment and Bill Simon from the governorship. By my own quick estimate, Republican turnout in California was at about 48%. A few hundred thousand votes more, and we'd have taken the governor's office, and others besides with ease.
What kept Republicans home here? No doubt the missteps of the Simon campaign after the primary victory was some of the reason. Four stick out in my mind:
1. Keeping silent during the summer while Davis aired an onslaught of attack ads (Rule #1: NEVER let your opposition define you)
2. Alerting no one in the Republican Party or the White House of pending legal action which could and DID blindside everyone when a unfavorable verdict was handed down (overturned or not, the damage was done)
3. Public shake ups and then layoffs in the campaign staff that the media used to successfully portray the Simon campaign as being in a state of disarray, and
4. The Davis-Angele photo. For the love of God, did NO ONE bother to think about verifying the legitimacy of the photo before letting Simon go before the cameras and level charges of campaign finance laws violations?
I don't know who was the architect of strategy behind these debacles, Sal Russo, Ed Rollins, or whoever, but it was enough to give the media and the Davis campaign enough ammunition to use against our efforts and deflate the spirits and the turnout among some Republicans who otherwise would not have been turned off by the tone of the election or their perceived view of the Republican candidate not being worth the effort.
But there is one more very critical piece of the turnout puzzle... One which, if it had not created (or allowed) the problem, all the other obstacles could have been negated and victory would have been ours... And that's Gerald Parsky.
The Bush team's Golden State point man and Team Cal chairman and his allies were the chief proponents of last fall's "reform and restructuring" of the California Republican Party's bylaws and internal structure. Among the promises made during that debate, bringing in Administration officials, including President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, into the state to stump and raise funds for Republican efforts in the state. President Bush last visited the state in mid-August. In September and October, when the visits of high profile Republicans and the dollars from their fundraising appearances could have done the most to energize potential Republican voters to go to the polls... There were none. Enough Republicans didn't get out to vote, and as a result as many Republicans up and down the ticket were behind by a few points, and many races and candidates met defeat.
Here in my region of Los Angeles County, legislative districts were Gerrymandered to maximum Democrat benefit, again with Republican consent. But while they were content to let the Republican Party get violated Pelican Bay style by the Democrats, those of us who ran here fought back. Everyone of us ran at least five points ahead of registration. My own campaign for Congress in the 38th C.D. struggled for exposure and funds, but ran over 4 points ahead of registration. 30th S.D. Senate candidate John Robertson ran a great campaign and scored over 7 points ahead of the numbers. Assembly candidates John Brantuk and Dave Butler, fighting hard and running in the 56th and 58th A.D.'s respectively, both beat registration by 9 points. And in the neighboring 39th C.D. our great candidate against Democrat Linda Sanchez Valentine, Tim Escobar, won just over 40% of the vote, a whopping 13 points more than the numbers said he had.
Perhaps higher turnout might not have assured victory in every one of the races I mentioned, but if not victory, at least positioned these fighting candidates, and many others like them all over California, for better numbers than they won, and for success in 2004. But alas, turnout kept numbers lower than they could have been. Simon's campaign too, fought valiantly, but in the end, as he said conceding the race "the numbers just aren't there".
Seems to me, Parsky did not deliver. He didn't deliver on bringing us high level support when we needed it, and thus didn't deliver on turnout. And delivering on the money? Oh yes... And what about the Team Cal bank account? Was there any money left in there by the time the polls closed? If so, why? Promises weren't delivered upon, and for that, I reach one conclusion: It's time for Gerry Parsky to go.
In less than two years time, will be again be fighting to defend and expand our seats in the U.S. House and state Assembly, and in the other half of the state Senate. We will have to field a candidate Barbara Boxer (already Bill Simon has been ike th mentioned... he would do well to consider the race). And of course, the president faces reelection. If he is unable to recreate the electoral map of 2000, California may be in a good position to come to his aid.
Right now is the time to rid ourselves of the liabilities which saddle us. The beating heart and soul of the Republican Party is the volunteers... The grassroots people who work hard for our Party's candidates. No amount of "professionalization" can change that. As a comparison of campaign spending figures shows, a candidate or Party with foot soldiers willing to put in the extra mile for something they believe in will more than help make the difference.
The Republican Party does not exist to inflate the egos of narrow-minded, short-sighted, D.C. appointed leaders. Nor does it exist to become the property of self-appointed leaders obsessed with the micromanagement of their own small political fiefdoms. Our purpose is the advancement of the historic legacy of our forefathers, from Abraham Lincoln to Ronald Reagan, our cause is liberty, and for us the best vehicle for the advancement of that cause is the Republican Party.
And to that end let us carry on, with the strengh of our convictions and the knowledge of the greatness of our cause, all the way to victory.
Alex A. Burrola
2002 Republican Nominee, U.S. House of Representatives
38th District - California
Yeah, maybe Riordan would have won, but had Simon simply made fewer mistakes he'd have beaten Wavy Grayvy. I wouldn't pin this loss on Rove.
I actually think that if Simon had shown up at more campaign appearances with his wife at his side he'd have garnered enough votes to beat the Governor-elect. She was a campaign asset who went under-utilized and unnoticed.
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