Posted on 10/21/2025 12:43:25 PM PDT by ebb tide
Back in March I wrote an article “Catholics Are Rapidly Losing Ground” in which I commented on a recent Pew Survey showing dire numbers about Catholicism, including the fact that for every person who becomes Catholic, over eight leave the Church. I didn’t try to sugar-coat the news and bluntly stated that this was very bad news for the Church, and that radical changes were necessary. The article went viral (it’s our most visited article in 2025 so far), and many other articles quoted it; in particular, many non-Catholics quoted me as a Catholic source proving that Catholicism was dying in this country.
However, since that article there’s been a growing narrative that the Catholic Church in America is on the upswing; in particular, that it seems like the number of converts to Catholicism is exploding. Just this week Catholic Michael Knowles was interviewed on the Tucker Carlson Show, and Carlson joked that “everyone is becoming Catholic.”
So was I (and Pew Survey I based my article on) wrong? Is the Church shrinking, or is it experiencing a revival with a new wave of converts?
Actually, the answer is that both are true. The Church is definitely shrinking, and there does seem to be an upsurge in conversions to Catholicism. The reality is that millions of cradle Catholics, particularly young Catholics, are leaving the Church. At the same time, an increasing number of non-Catholics, particularly young non-Catholics, are becoming Catholic. Yes, the former number dwarfs the latter number (by 8 to 1), but the latter number is becoming more significant.
But how can these two apparently disparate things both be true? The cross-traffic into and out of the Church is due to each person’s personal experience of Catholicism.
Consider the average cradle Catholic growing up in the Church today. His primary experience of Catholicism is his local parish, which is sadly often effeminate, non-threatening, and weak. It’s full of 1970’s musical ditties and insipid homilies and hordes of older women dominating parish life (picture the army of Extraordinary Ministers invading the altar when it’s time to distribute Holy Communion). There’s nothing about this experience to suggest that Catholicism has the answers to today’s nihilistic culture. It doesn’t fight against the lies young people experience every day—lies about human sexuality, lies about the family, and lies about the purpose of life. Instead it just tells them to be nice. When the average young cradle Catholic thinks this is what Catholicism represents, he simply leaves as a young adult in his search for real answers to today’s problems.
Now consider the average young non-Catholic today. He’s never stepped foot in a Catholic parish. He might know a few Catholics, but most of them aren’t serious about the Faith so they don’t talk about it much. But he does encounter and interact with Catholics online. And these Catholics are far more likely to present a Catholicism that’s masculine, robust, and offering real answers (the Church’s answers!) to today’s problems. It rejects the weak Catholicism that became dominant starting in the 1970’s. This is attractive, and so a growing number of those non-Catholics are deciding to become Catholic. Further, they’re much more likely to then enter the Church through a parish that’s more traditional and more unapologetic about being Catholic.
So yes, the Catholic Church is shrinking—far too many souls are leaving Christ’s Church. But there’s much room for hope, because more and more people are recognizing that Catholicism has the words of eternal life, words given to us by Christ Himself. Our challenge now as Catholics is to transform more and more parishes to become hubs for the revival taking place, to become those masculine, robust, traditional parishes that answers today’s problems. Then we’ll have far fewer cradle Catholics leaving, and increase the already-growing number of non-Catholics entering.
Come, Holy Spirit!
Ping
The unanswered question is, where do the cradle Catholics go when they leave the Catholic church? If they enter the world and leave the faith completely, then it is a loss, an eternal loss if they stay there. If they are leaving in order to enter a more masculine Christianity, albeit non-Catholic, then they are still in the arms of Christ: they have traded the sacraments for the Scripture and the visible work of the Holy Spirit, a high price but better than leaving for nothing.
Many cradle Catholics don’t take their own religion seriously as a religion. It’s more of a habit or ethnic identity. Converts are an entirely different breed.
Catholic Church in the US is losing members. Is that why the Bishops only focus on hospitality to foreigners and look the other way when it comes to the nation’s immigration laws, despite both are parts of the teachings?
I remember looking into this some years ago. Most of the growth in the US Catholic Church was Latin Americans
All due respect to Mr Simmons managing editor, one does not ‘leave the Catholic Church’ as if it is some kind of political party. It is not a democratic organization, regardless of what many people choose to believe
The Catholic Church in the United States appears to be entering a period of renewed growth, with the latest data showing that more people are now joining than leaving. Figures compiled by Shane Schaetzel, using research from the Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate (CARA), the Pew Research Center, the National Catholic Register, and Vatican statistics, suggest that after two decades of decline, adult conversions are once again on the rise.
The size of the Catholic church in the US in this decade is totally dependent on Latin American immigrants. Immigration increases the number of Catholics in the US.
At the same time, many Latino Catholics are switching to Evangelical/Pentecostal churches. And that switch is occuring with both 1st, 2d and 3d generations in the US.
These 2 dynamics determine the size of the Catholic church in the USA.
The size of the Catholic church in the US in this decade is totally dependent on Latin American immigrants. Immigration increases the number of Catholics in the US.
At the same time, many Latino Catholics are switching to Evangelical/Pentecostal churches. And that switch is occuring with both 1st, 2d and 3d generations in the US.
These 2 dynamics determine the size of the Catholic church in the USA.
And many years ago, that might have been true. But this is more accurate today ...
The largest groups joining the Roman Catholic Church in the United States are former Protestants and those with no religious upbringing. Approximately two-thirds of converts are White (67%), and 20% are Hispanic.
Protestants: About 59% of converts to Catholicism were raised as Protestants.
Unaffiliated: 22% of converts were raised without a religion.
Demographics: Converts are more likely to be White than the existing Catholic population, while converts are less likely to be Hispanic.
Immigration: While immigration from countries like Mexico continues to be a major source of growth, converts to Catholicism are predominantly non-immigrants in the United States
I’m a recovering Catholic… I left the Catholic Church right after my confirmation at age 14, which I only went through with to please my parents. I warned my folks that I was done after confirmation. Old, crusty priests with no connection to young people fired the one cool young priest who could bring in more young people because the kids liked him more. They felt threatened.
The church sucked then and they suck now. The Catholic Church has betrayed God, Jesus and all of their followers for millennia.
The church I go to now and have for years and years is a teaching experience and they go through the Bible, page by page, verse by verse. I don’t think the Catholic Church has taught the Bible since Roman times…they certainly place man (priests) as the pathway to Christ.
And I confess my sins to Jesus, never a man wearing a robe with a purple scarf😉
Thanks for sharing. I do find that people who have received the sacraments and say they’ve left the Church hate the Church more than most
Most likely it’s people who are retuning to a Catholic church who were raised in one and know nothing else.
In my experience, yes. I spit on the Catholic Church at every opportunity… They are phony, corrupt and just ugly. The only time now, in my 60s, that I will step foot in a Catholic Church is for a wedding or a funeral only. And I cannot properly celebrate or grieve sitting in those pews
Converts are being lead astray big time by the catholic church
We’ve had several years of popes who rather like and agree with the “sacraments” of homosexuality and abortion.
Jesus disagreed. Hence, why they don’t teach the Bible. Catholic priests “teach” to whatever is socially “cool” these days so people feel “included” and open their wallets.
Yes.
Unless it's neither.
It is no longer mostly Irish/Italian. Many Hispanics/Africans/Asians are Catholics. Which is important because it is bringing vitality to the Church.
They sure aren’t moving it right and pro-life in voting.
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