How the Faithful Voted: 2012 Preliminary Analysis [Evang. up; other Prot. + white Catholics down]

In his re-election victory, Democrat Barack Obama narrowly defeated Republican Mitt Romney in the national popular vote (50% to 48%)1. Obama’s margin of victory was much smaller than in 2008 when he defeated John McCain by a 53% to 46% margin, and he lost ground among white evangelical Protestants and white Catholics. But the basic religious contours of the 2012 electorate resemble recent elections – traditionally Republican groups such as white evangelicals and weekly churchgoers strongly backed Romney, while traditionally Democratic groups such as black Protestants, Hispanic Catholics, Jews and the religiously unaffiliated backed Obama by large margins.

Religiously unaffiliated voters and Jewish voters were firmly in Obama’s corner in 2012 (70% and 69%, respectively). Compared with 2008, support for Obama ticked downward among both Jews and religiously unaffiliated voters in the exit polls, though these declines appear not to be statistically significant. Both of these groups have long been strongly supportive of Democratic candidates in presidential elections. Black Protestants also voted overwhelmingly for Obama (95%).

At the other end of the political spectrum, nearly eight-in-ten white evangelical Protestants voted for Romney (79%), compared with 20% who backed Obama. Romney received as much support from evangelical voters as George W. Bush did in 2004 (79%) and more support from evangelicals than McCain did in 2008 (73%). Mormon voters were also firmly in Romney’s corner; nearly eight-in-ten Mormons (78%) voted for Romney, while 21% voted for Obama. Romney received about the same amount of support from Mormons that Bush received in 2004. (Exit poll data on Mormons was unavailable for 2000 and 2008.)

Compared with religiously unaffiliated and Jewish voters on the left and white evangelicals and Mormons on the right, Catholics and white mainline Protestants were more evenly divided. Among white mainline Protestants in the exit poll, 54% voted for Romney, while 44% supported Obama. This is virtually identical to the 2008 election, when 55% of white mainline Protestants voted for McCain and 44% backed Obama.

White Catholics, by contrast, swung strongly in the Republican direction relative to 2008. Nearly six-in-ten white Catholics (59%) voted for Romney, up from 52% who voted for McCain in 2008. Three-quarters of Hispanic Catholics voted for Obama, and Catholics as a whole were evenly divided in 2012 (50% voted for Obama, while 48% backed Romney).

As in other recent elections, those who attend religious services most often exhibited the strongest support for the Republican presidential candidate. Nearly six-in-ten voters who say they attend religious services at least once a week voted for Romney (59%), while 39% backed Obama. Romney received as much support from weekly churchgoers as other Republican candidates have in recent elections.

Those who say they never attend religious services were again among the strongest Democratic supporters in the presidential election. More than six-in-ten voters who say they never attend religious services voted for Obama (62%). Voters who say they attend religious services a few times a month or a few times a year also supported Obama over Romney by a 55% to 43% margin.

The religious composition of the 2012 electorate resembled recent elections, though there are signs that both the white Protestant and white Catholic share of the electorate are gradually declining over the long term.

Slightly more than half of 2012 voters describe themselves as Protestants (53%), compared with 54% in each of the three previous elections. Roughly four-in-ten voters were white Protestants in 2012 (39%); by comparison, 42% of 2004 and 2008 voters were white Protestants, as were 45% of 2000 voters. The decline in white Protestants’ share of the electorate is most evident among non-evangelicals, whose share of the electorate has declined slightly from 20% in 2004 to 18% in 2012. White evangelical Protestants constituted 24% of the 2012 electorate, compared with 23% in 2008 and 21% in 2004.

One-quarter of 2012 voters were Catholics, including 18% who were white Catholics. By comparison, white Catholics constituted 21% of the electorate in 2000, 20% of voters in 2004 and 19% of the electorate in 2008.

Jews accounted for 2% of the 2012 electorate, and Muslims and members of other non-Christian faiths together accounted for 7% of the electorate. The religiously unaffiliated made up 12% of 2012 voters; the religiously unaffiliated share of the electorate is unchanged from 2008, even though the religiously unaffiliated share of the adult population has grown significantly over this period.

For more election-related analysis from the Pew Research Center, see "Changing Face of America Helps Assure Obama Victory,” Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, Nov. 7, 2012, "Latino Voters in the 2012 Election," Pew Hispanic Center, Nov. 7, 2012 and "A Milestone En Route to a Majority Minority Nation," Pew Social & Demographic Trends, Nov. 7, 2012.

The Catholic percentage needs to be looked at to accomodate the growth in population

Good pt...

Michael Medved said today that there 21 million MORE "voting age" people than in 2004.

So if even half of those climbed on board since '08, 'tis a lot.

Of course, when we're even bandying about these #s, what's NOT mentioned are all of the unregistered voters who are eligible to vote.

Toss in those #s and we could get a lot of unique "could have been" scenarios...

But I'm telling you, these people tend to be rather "shepherdless" and would probably help the Dems more than the GoP.

I know your issues with Mormonism, but I wonder if it was wise to let the bigger evil (Moslem Obama) win. What do you think now?

Well, a LOT of people have said that whoever gains power, God's sovereignty is still in play...

IoW, that God has certain purposes for that...even if it's judgment vs. a people...and let's face it, if our land worships the $ -- what better way to "judge" us than by removing the average $1 from this land?

Many FReepers told me that God could work thru a pagan leader -- or one who calls upon a distinct god. Of course, the "leader" they were referencing was Mitt Romney. My Q earlier this week back to one of them is why didn't they apply this same theological application to Obama?

So, if God had anything to do with either allowing Obama to be POTUS -- and remain there -- then who would I be to question His sovereign wisdom?

And frankly, 'tis better to go the route of acknowledging active sovereignty vs. becoming a deist.

Another factor people tend not to consider is I believe we were "had" as a nation either (a) as soon as we were hit up as a nation financially in 2008 -- when even a POTUS we liked was in power; and/or (b) when Obama was put in power; or (c) the moment Romney became our unofficial nominee.

God's temporal judgment already seemed to be kicking in a LOT earlier than the average FReeper will acknowledge. I believe that FReepers were simply in denial about this -- and wanted to believe we still had an "out" somewhere...Hence, they treated Romney as some political messiah...the last "hope."

And the problem with that, as I see it, were I God, is why give a guy who already claims to be a competing god the glory of national deliverance? I mean Lds literally use the word "saviors" to apply to themselves due to baptism of the dead.

Why would God want to reinforce...
...glory for a false "god" (Romney)?
...the false notion that Lds are literal "saviors"?
...and the false Mormon prophesy of the White Horse riding in to rescue the constitution?

Lastly, think of it this way:

What has made the GoP great was its initial stances on social issues...going back to 1856 when it started when it said it would take on the "twin relics" of slavery and polygamy.

It took them on for the next 40+ years!

The GoP has spoken out on behalf of the pre-born.

Had the RINOs completed this takeover of the GoP, they would have (a) held power thru 2020 and beyond... (b) "Proved" to all that RINOism is the way to go; (c) They would have held a "funeral" of sorts for both the Tea Party & social conservatives.

We would have been "dead in the water"...the Third Wheel on a "date"...viewed as the "crazy aunt" that needs to be hid in the White House basement...

They tried to tell us that the "base" of the party -- the two groups above -- were irrelevant. That we only needed to be good "minions" and show up on election day...and that they would rule the party, the White House, and the world via RINOism.

Well, for the umpteenth time, they proved how wrong they were!

They keep giving us either boring white guys or country club millionaires whose country club embraced open racism; and they somehow think that our changing multi-cultural nation won't notice...

Can you say stupid???

I know your issues with Mormonism, but I wonder if it was wise to let the bigger evil (Moslem Obama) win. What do you think now?

- - - - - -
Bigger evil based upon WHAT?!?!?

Matthew 10:28 - Do not be afraid of those who kill the body but cannot kill the soul. Rather, be afraid of the One who can destroy both soul and body in hell.

Islam isn’t knocking on doors telling people that they are Christians and the ‘only true church’ while lying to their faces about their beliefs.

I have been seeing a lot of what Lewis said in the Screwtape letters here....

Let him begin by treating the Patriotism or the Pacifism as a part of his religion. Then let him, under the influence of partisan spirit, come to regard it as the most important part. Then quietly and gradually nurse him on to the stage at which the religion becomes merely part of the “cause”... Once you have made the World an end, and faith a means, you have almost won your man, and it makes very little difference what kind of worldly end he is pursuing. Provided that meetings, pamphlets, policies, movements, causes, and crusades, matter more to him than prayers and sacraments and charity, he is ours — and the more “religious” (on those terms) the more securely ours. I could show you a pretty cageful down here

Christians (real Christians) never put politics over their faith.

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