Are Conservatives Abandoning Romney? [Say What?!? 7-10% of Tea Party Evangelicals support Obama??]

The Right Sphere ^ | September 16, 2012 | Tom Dougherty

[Alex Murphy]

There have been 16 public polls conducted in swing states within the last week and there is an alarming statistic, consistent in all the polls regardless of the pollster party bias, that should have the Romney camp more than a little worried and possibly perplexed.

The numbers are clear that self-described conservatives are not supporting Governor Romney in sufficient numbers to win the election. Additionally there is anecdotal evidence that Evangelicals and Tea Party supporters are not embracing the Romney-Ryan ticket at levels that would be expected.

Looking at the crosstabs of the polls conducted in Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia within the last ten days, and averaging the support for Obama and Romney by ideology, the chart below speaks thousands of words.

Obama has a 7% greater support level among liberals than Romney has among conservatives, and a 6.8% favorable delta among likely voters who are “bolting from the base”. Without any demographic adjustment, using the raw data from the polls in those five states, Obama has an average lead of 2.5%.

If conservatives were supporting Governor Romney at the same level liberals are supporting President Obama, without any change to the level of support from self-described moderates, Romney could have a 4% plus lead in five states that have a total of 73 electoral votes

With my current electoral map showing Obama with 237 votes and Romney with 222, 73 votes is the ballgame, and by a comfortable margin.

In addition to the ideology breakdowns, the crosstabs show Tea Party supporters favor Romney over Obama, 85.0% to 10.6%, and Evangelical Christians favor Romney over Obama, 63.0% to 28.2%. Now I can immediately write-off a large part of the evangelical numbers because three of the polls conducted by Marist Polling state that 33% of evangelicals support Obama and that skews the numbers badly.

What I can’t write off is there are 7% to 10% of the electorate who describe themselves as either Tea Partiers or Evangelical Christians that are supporting Barack Obama in these five critical states. This is the empirical part of questioning the lack of support from ultra-conservatives within the Republican Party.

Anecdotally speaking there is also evidence that a faction of the party, large enough to insure a Romney-Ryan victory, is not fully behind the GOP ticket. In the last week I have received a minimum of a dozen emails from Tea Party organizations and other ultra-conservative groups demanding the ouster of Barack Obama in November but failing to even mention the names, Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan.

A few of these organizations may have charters as 527’s or another quasi-political group that prevents them from expressing specific support for a given candidate but I know the vast majority are not. So the question that begs to be asked of these groups is if you want Obama gone, why are you not advocating for a Romney-Ryan victory in November?

We are looking at a presidential race today that literally is a statistical tie, and yes I know that phrase is overworked but it is the truth, with President Obama having the upper hand. Clearly there is somewhere between 7% and 15% of conservatives who, while seemingly committed to seeing Obama as a one-term president, are not supporting the only option to victory in November that achieves their stated goal.

So my answer to the question asked is yes, conservatives are abandoning Romney, and that is an answer many Republicans must find unsettling.

[JSteff]

They will either vote Obama or not vote at all,

Incorrect. They ARE voting for OBAMA. That is the reality if their inaction results in O winning another term.

They are just children kidding NO ONE. Grow up kids. Are you so silly and selfish. Would your really doom our country to the hell that will grow from another term they may GIVE to O.

Read my tag line. It will be much worse if this election is given to the liberals. Heck, there may not be a FR if O wins another term.

[DannyTN]

"they will, however, blame you if their liberal loses."

They will indeed.

I'm just hoping congress is impacted enough that whichever liberal wins the white house, has a fairly conservative congress with a case of spineous hughmongous.

[Tennessee Nana]

I still dont know what an Evangelical is suppose to be...

I was discussing this new term with some other Christians this morning...

They asked me why they keep seeing “Evangelical” but not “Christian” or Protestant”

But as a Christian and a Conservative I wont be voting for Willard...

[JRandomFreeper]

It may be 1%. Which is fine with me. I won't compromise on some things.

The GOP needs to learn that running a liberal is always a losing strategy for them, as far as conservatives are concerned.

If they don't want to go the way of the Whigs, that is.

/johnny

[Nifster]

This is the MSM’s effort to get people thinking that O will surely win. Then when it doesn’t happen (like Gore and Kerry) there will be outrage etc etc etc

[publana]

They aren’t kneeling at the feet of Obama. They are the holier-than-thou purists that refuse to vote for Romney, thus are complicit in destroying the very Country they profess to love.

Imbeciles and traitors all.

[Unam Sanctam]

I just don’t see enough reason to vote for Romney.

How about preventing the Marxist from consolidating state socialism in this country?

[Lakeshark]

Romney was last on my list (second to last if you include RuPaul). Sure a lot of GOPe's backed him, but not all. We as conservatives became a circular firing squad, had too many mediocre candidates, and Romney won.

You really want Bambi to win this thing?

Sorry, that's simply unthinkable.

[JRandomFreeper]

Every time someone publishes some BS poll, half of you curl up into the fetal position and cry yourselves to sleep. Stop it.

The GOP is famous for worrying about what 'people will think' and acting out of fear instead of strength.

Face it, they are wusses. Expecting anything else is crazy.

/johnny

[Unam Sanctam]

You work within the party to further conservative principles, as the Tea Party has been somewhat successful in doing. Taking your marbles and going home is not constructive and simply helps the ongoing socialization of America. To say that Obama and Romney are exactly the same is patently false. Romney is not against the free market like O.

[ccmay]

They don’t have a clue about Christianity if they vote for obama.

Irrelevant. The pollster asks them "Are you a Tea Partier?" They say "No." He then asks "Are you an evangelical Christian?". They answer "Yes". They are then put in a bin marked "Tea Partier OR evangelical Christian". When the headlines are written, that category magically becomes "Conservatives", even though it may contain half or more of the black population.

-ccm

[DannyTN]

"I’ve seen several here who said they would rather have Obama with a Republican House and Senate than Romney and who repeat over and over the quote about the ‘devil you know’."

I haven't said that. But I have said that the House and Senate will continue to grow more conservative and develop a spine under Liberal 1(Obama), but they will do the opposite under Liberal 2 (Romney).

Romney wins, we've got 8 more years before we have a chance to put a conservative in office. If Obama wins, we can do it in 4.

[JRandomFreeper]

It may be unthinkable. But it may happen, due to choices to change rules after the fact, trash-talking conservatives (Rove), and various assorted dirty tricks by the GOP-E.

I don't want Obama, I don't want Romney.

I'm not getting what I want, this election. I'll deal with that as an adult. And be here later to fight this fight again.

/johnny

[Lakeshark]

It really might happen, this is going to be a tight election.

I honestly can't fathom the mindset that says Bambi and Romny are the same. Hanging around and allowing the most radically leftwing, (Hell, the man's a Marxist) and destructive president ever seems not only silly, but a bit crazy.

[JRandomFreeper]

Imbeciles and traitors all.

You do realize that you will have to deal with folks that won't vote for Romney after the election is over? Conservatives that won't vote for your liberal...

Namecalling isn't going to win you any converts.

/johnny

[fr_freak]

They are just children kidding NO ONE. Grow up kids. Are you so silly and selfish. Would your really doom our country to the hell that will grow from another term they may GIVE to O.

You are the one who needs to grow up. This country has already died - we are all just living off of the rotting carcass now, and soon there will be nothing left. That should have been obvious the moment Obama was elected. No sane version of the USA would ever have elected such a lowlife, commie goofball like Obama. He was elected because at least half, if not more, of the people in this country are dumbed-down, lazy, spoiled, leeches who feel entitled to the earth, moon and stars just for having been born. With an electorate like that, WE WILL NEVER RECOVER. Even if Romney wins, the overall direction of the country will still be towards the cliff.

Given Obama's dismal failure, you'd think the Republicans would have seen this as an opportunity to promote a solid conservative candidate. But hell no, they pimped out Romney instead, a left-wing, mushy, flip-flopping, abortion-supporting, silver spoon milquetoast and when they serve us that shit sandwich, we're supposed to smile as we take a bite.

I don't think people like you are dumb enough to think Romney will save us. I think you're just hoping that getting him in office will give you an extra decade or more before the inevitable collapse so you can get yours and say to hell with the younger generations - let them pay the price. Well, I say if it's going to burn to the ground anyway, let it burn down now so that we can bear the burden and rebuild, instead of leaving it for the next generations to deal with. But then again, I try to think like an adult.

[X-spurt]

Nobama and Soros thank you for your vote.

[mnehring]

If Obama wins, at this pace, we will have so many people dependent on government we won’t have enough independently minded people to make a Conservative base. We already have 47% of people on government assistance. We are a breath away from that tipping point.

You can’t hope for change, you have to deal with the reality in front of you.

...and let’s not even mention all of the fires going on around the world that not only is Obama failing at but seems to be stoking. The way it is going, the next election if Obama wins, will be nothing more than a show to keep a tinhorn dictator in power.