Posted on 09/17/2012 7:31:00 PM PDT by Alex Murphy
There have been 16 public polls conducted in swing states within the last week and there is an alarming statistic, consistent in all the polls regardless of the pollster party bias, that should have the Romney camp more than a little worried and possibly perplexed.
The numbers are clear that self-described conservatives are not supporting Governor Romney in sufficient numbers to win the election. Additionally there is anecdotal evidence that Evangelicals and Tea Party supporters are not embracing the Romney-Ryan ticket at levels that would be expected.
Looking at the crosstabs of the polls conducted in Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia within the last ten days, and averaging the support for Obama and Romney by ideology, the chart below speaks thousands of words.
Obama has a 7% greater support level among liberals than Romney has among conservatives, and a 6.8% favorable delta among likely voters who are “bolting from the base”. Without any demographic adjustment, using the raw data from the polls in those five states, Obama has an average lead of 2.5%.
If conservatives were supporting Governor Romney at the same level liberals are supporting President Obama, without any change to the level of support from self-described moderates, Romney could have a 4% plus lead in five states that have a total of 73 electoral votes
With my current electoral map showing Obama with 237 votes and Romney with 222, 73 votes is the ballgame, and by a comfortable margin.
In addition to the ideology breakdowns, the crosstabs show Tea Party supporters favor Romney over Obama, 85.0% to 10.6%, and Evangelical Christians favor Romney over Obama, 63.0% to 28.2%. Now I can immediately write-off a large part of the evangelical numbers because three of the polls conducted by Marist Polling state that 33% of evangelicals support Obama and that skews the numbers badly.
What I can’t write off is there are 7% to 10% of the electorate who describe themselves as either Tea Partiers or Evangelical Christians that are supporting Barack Obama in these five critical states. This is the empirical part of questioning the lack of support from ultra-conservatives within the Republican Party.
Anecdotally speaking there is also evidence that a faction of the party, large enough to insure a Romney-Ryan victory, is not fully behind the GOP ticket. In the last week I have received a minimum of a dozen emails from Tea Party organizations and other ultra-conservative groups demanding the ouster of Barack Obama in November but failing to even mention the names, Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan.
A few of these organizations may have charters as 527’s or another quasi-political group that prevents them from expressing specific support for a given candidate but I know the vast majority are not. So the question that begs to be asked of these groups is if you want Obama gone, why are you not advocating for a Romney-Ryan victory in November?
We are looking at a presidential race today that literally is a statistical tie, and yes I know that phrase is overworked but it is the truth, with President Obama having the upper hand. Clearly there is somewhere between 7% and 15% of conservatives who, while seemingly committed to seeing Obama as a one-term president, are not supporting the only option to victory in November that achieves their stated goal.
So my answer to the question asked is yes, conservatives are abandoning Romney, and that is an answer many Republicans must find unsettling.
What I can’t write off is there are 7% to 10% of the electorate who describe themselves as either Tea Partiers or Evangelical Christians that are supporting Barack Obama in these five critical states. This is the empirical part of questioning the lack of support from ultra-conservatives within the Republican Party.
Based on "polls conducted in Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia within the last ten days." All bulwarks of conservatism, let me tell you!
I’m not surprised at this. At least 10% of the members of this forum have said that they will not support Romney no matter what. They will either vote Obama or not vote at all, a distinction without much of a difference.
A lot of African-Americans are devout evangelical Christians...
So they're abandoning Romney and somehow find Obama more appealing. How anyone could consider themselves "tea party," yet kneel at the feet of Obama doesn't make sense. But then... very little of what's happening in this country makes sense anymore.
About that evangelical Christian number... how many of those people are "christians" of the Jim Wallis mode? That's a huge factor.
I don’t care about polls or vote by polls. No one else should either. Not 50 days out. Bo gotta go!
If they poll people like me then the numbers make sense. I will often give conflicting demographic data to screw with the numbers.
Anecdote, not data:
We know a young couple, under 40 w/2 kids. Both hard workers. The husband had some down time a few years ago and filled in where ever and w/whatever he could. No one had a clue, but they had not been able to make their mortgage and they lost the house recently. They belong to a fundamentalist church. He has stated that zer0 is a Muslim. They take no government aid.
They support xer0 and think Romney is crooked. Nothing will change their minds.
It is beyond frustrating.
I’m still planning on voting for Virgil Goode.
If Romney comes out with a better economic plan, I could change my mind. But so far, Romney is this years Hope and Change candidate.
I don’t think conservatives are abandoning Romney, they were never on board to begin with.
And the GOP-E were idiots to ever think they would be.
Consider Republicans are about to lose to the least popular incumbent President ever. That says a lot.
I’m going to vote for Obama. Just last week I told the girl on the phone that I always vote democrat and can’t wait to vote twice for Obama on election day.
Just because a person may not be supporting Romney does not mean in anyway they are supporting obama, except in the minds of some people.
Evangelicals don’t always vote conservative. In fact I know several who are MORE concerned with “social justice” than any other issue.
As for Tea Partiers- look around this site- lots of freepers can’t/won’t vote for Romney- no matter what.
Also- there is always a possibility that some libs are lying to pollsters..
Many blacks and some Hispanics can be described as evangelicals or charismatics, could that explain those numbers?
People are screwing with the pollsters. Thats all.
A lot of African-Americans are devout evangelical Christians
They don’t have a clue about Christianity if they vote for obama. Unless you can find me a Bible that says, “I knew you in the womb as lifeless tissue” I’ll continue to question their version of the faith.
If they do not embrace the Biblical version of marriage, I won’t embrace their version of the religion.
Fortunately, there are many blacks to do understand the Bible and Christianity. I just wish there were more. I wish there were more whites and Hispanics that did too.
With your help apparently...
Well if people on this forum openly said they will vote for Obama I think they may be on the wrong forum.
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