lol ... I think you realize full well that is a loaded question. You and I have two totally different ideas concerning what the restoration of Israel means.
But ...
What we can agree on is that, as you pointed out (in number 10 from your list), Israel's restoration and blessing are associated with their repentance and obedience. I am not aware of any theological persuasion that would say that the first coming of Christ, the "coming in AD70," or a regathering in 1948 accomplished a true OT restoration and blessing for national Israel; as they are still in disobedience. Even some of my dispensational brothers get this wrong wrt to the 1948 event.
So the answer to your question is ... technically, no prophecy concerning the first coming of Christ relates to a restoration of Israel ... since no restoration took place.
However if you replace the OT concept of national restoration with the NT concept of individual redemption then you can shoehorn that concept of individual redemption into any OT prophecy relating to the coming of Christ and claim national restoration fulfillment.
It wasn't loaded at all. What OT prophecies point to the restoration that Christ accomplished at His first coming? Doesn't the fact that you would stumble say something about your theology?
So the answer to your question is ... technically, no prophecy concerning the first coming of Christ relates to a restoration of Israel ... since no restoration took place.
Of course it did. You just refuse to see it because you see the prophecies in (unbiblical) nationalistic terms. For example, Paul tells the (former) gentile believers that they have been brought into the commonwealth of Israel in Ephesians 2. How could this happen or make any sense without the restoration of Israel being a reality?
And she will bring forth a Son, and you shall call His name Jesus, for He will save His people from their sins." (Matt. 1:21)'But you, Bethlehem, in the land of Judah, Are not the least among the rulers of Judah; For out of you shall come a Ruler Who will shepherd My people Israel.' " (Matt. 2:6)
But I'm glad to see you got the point. While the NT deals extensively with the restoration of Israel, it is silent on the restoration of “national Israel” as perceived by modern futurists. Restoration has happened. Jesus is the King of Israel seated on the throne of David in heaven.
The first coming was all about salvation, for Israel and the nations. The second coming will be all judgment. There is no second chance for Israel or anyone else. Once Christ returns that is “the end” when He delivers up the kingdom to the Father.
A couple questions/issues from our previous exchange that I don't think got answered:Thanks.One more thing— and I realize I ask a lot of questions but I asked this before — is the [millennial kingdom] throne of David the actual very same throne that David and Solomon, et al sat on 2500 or so years ago? If so, where is it today?You wrote: I should have been more clear ... the "taken away into judgment" that is mentioned in Matt 24 is merely death. At the second coming Christ kills all unbelievers. Their final judgment awaits the GWT judgment after the MK. Sorry about that. And I asked:So what coming and judgment is being pictured in Matt. 25:31ff?31 " When the Son of Man comes in His glory, and all the holy angels with Him, then He will sit on the throne of His glory. 32 All the nations will be gathered before Him, and He will separate them one from another, as a shepherd divides his sheep from the goats. 33 And He will set the sheep on His right hand, but the goats on the left.It says “when He comes … then He will judge.”