Novak: A Democratic debacle

Townhall.com ^ | 10/09/03 | Robert Novak

[Pokey78]

WASHINGTON -- Arnold Schwarzenegger's landslide victory in the California recall, an election treated as a ludicrous aberration by the bipartisan political establishment, could exert overriding political significance nationally.

California instantly is in question as a solid electoral anchor of Democratic presidential strength. Without California, chances of defeating George W. Bush next year are nil. Short of that transforming development, the tawdry performance by Democrats in the brief recall campaign creates anxiety among thoughtful party loyalists outside California who looked askance at tactics used in the country's most populous state.

For weeks, California Democrats have been confiding to me that the recall of Gov. Gray Davis was inevitable and the election of the popular actor was probable. Yet, Davis's inner circle and the state party leadership could think only of personal attacks on Schwarzenegger to avoid a Democratic debacle.

The decisive element of the recall election was the breaking of a vicious cycle that seemed to doom the California Republican Party to perpetual defeat. The model was the 2002 GOP primary for governor, where the party's conservative base rejected two candidates who could have defeated an unpopular Davis and nominated one who could not.

California never has been solidly conservative, and its electorate is less conservative than ever. Even Ronald Reagan as governor signed a bill to legalize abortion and was open-minded on homosexual rights. The decline of Caucasian voters into minority status and the continuing influx of Latinos created Democratic pretensions of inviolability and sent Republicans into a slough of despair.

The recall mechanism resolved the Republican dilemma by effectively nominating a candidate without a primary election. Schwarzenegger, who as a young body builder wore a Milton Friedman "Free to Choose" T-shirt during workouts, came across to voters as an economic libertarian conservative who is pro-choice and pro-gay rights. That model spells big trouble for Democrats.

One prominent Democrat with extensive experience in California campaigns is worried on two counts. First is the potential creation of a moderate California Republican Party. Second is the vicious effort to destroy Schwarzenegger personally.

Those eleventh hour attacks cannot be laid at the door of the Los Angeles Times and the New York Times as Democratic leaders now seek to do. As soon as petitions for the recall were distributed, Democratic operatives were whispering to me about bundles of dirty linen in Arnold's closest. Everybody knew what Bob Mulholland, the poison-tongued state Democratic Party spokesman, was talking about when he predicted that Schwarzenegger would be facing "real bullets" in the campaign.

Apart from mourning the loss of the governor's office, Democrats have to consider the angry, bitter and ultimately failed campaign. Predictably, Davis in the last week was calling for criminal prosecution of Schwarzenegger based on mainly anonymous accusations of sexual misbehavior on which the one-year statute of limitations had expired. The bitter posturing of State Democratic Chairman Art Torres was sickening to many loyal Democrats.

Leading up to Tuesday's balloting, the California Democrats looked like an over-confident majority. Ending up with the feckless Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante as the only alternative to Davis and Schwarzenegger was an illustration of politics by the absent-minded. Sacramento lobbyist Ritchie Ross, running Bustamante's campaign, sunk his candidate's chances when millions were accepted from Indian tribal gambling interests.

During a California reporting trip in June, I became convinced that Davis would not survive the recall. After a second visit last month, I felt Schwarzenegger would win even with conservative State Sen. Tom McClintock making it a three-way race. Pro-Arnold emotion shown at the state Republican convention Sept. 12-13 indicated that the party faithful wanted a victory more than ideological purity. For once in California, the Republicans were the pragmatists.

All this happened with the political establishment -- including the Bush White House -- as an uneasy bystander. The instruments of direct citizen participation that were devised early in the 20th century by such progressives as California's Hiram Johnson always have been hated by the professional politicians. The passage of Proposition 13 property tax reduction in the state in 1978 and the recall of Gray Davis worked just as Johnson envisioned. The benefits that may be bestowed on the Republican Party constitute a major side effect.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Hiram did us proud!

[WOSG]

Actually I think the Dems are hosed in a big way.

Lieberman is not really electable - he lacks energy so the Dem base ... and as a Jew, he's got the Israel thingie to deal with. the anti-WoT is energized by an anti-Israel animus. So Lieberman imho deflates anti-Bush *energy*. But lieberman wont win -as the Dems quip his constituency is Al From in the DLC and that's it. Sad fact is, the loony Dems have booed (very rude folks!) Lieberman when he tried talking sense on trade and foreign policy. The crazies wont let him win.

Gephardt IMHO is their strongest candidate, but even that is not saying much - he's like a Mondale rerun, and bit more imagination - and IMHO it will be either him or Dean.
I base this on the dynamics of the race: Gephardt, unlike Kerry, can probably last after NH. And Gephardt has a shot at winning in Iowa, while Dean takes NH. That being the case, you'll have 2 front runners, Kerry #3. The rest are going nowhere. Gephardt v Dean is a bit like Mondale v Hart.

Clark is a wild card. Likelihood of Dems self-destruction on him small but possible. He's the Perot of 2004 - unpredictable, certifiable loony, and not really a member of any party, except the Big Ego Party. If he blows up in the Dems face like a trick cigar sometime along the way - maybe after they make him their VP pick, it'll be fun ... JUST BE GLAD HE DIDNT DECIDE HE WAS A REPUBLICAN AND RUN AGAINST BUSH! That would be 1992 all over again (go Wes go).

I think the Dems will not pick a candidate early. I dont know how many races are "winner takes all" and how many are split, but with a big front-loaded primary and no clear front-runner, it could be a long primary season. I hope anyway. less time to get organized.

But note one thing: Gephardt winning is the *end* of the Clinton era ...!! Thank heaven for small favors.

[judywillow]

The only possible happy ending in this story will be for the demo$#it party to die, and the choice become that of republican versus libertarian, with the dems joining the list of organizations such as the thug society, the green-dragon tong, the society for the restoration of the hohenzollern monarchy etc. etc. which you swear not to know anything about while filling out government forms. Until that day arrives, we have to vote for the candidate most likely to prevent a democrat from holding a public office. It's pretty much that simple.

The one thing which would help more than anything else in my view would be a constitutional ammendment requiring runoff elections in all elections for public office, so that nobody could ever hold a public office with less than 50% of the vote, and nobody should ever have to fear to vote for their first choice candidate, at least on a first ballot.

[ChiMark]

You don't dump the front runner for a cross-eyed poindexter!
Arnold brought the fight to the table. McClintock did not have the cross section of liberal voters to win. California voters are well split up among a cross section of voters. We saw this debacle in Illinois with Jim Ryan losing to Rod Blag. big.McClintock likely
gathered the hard right vote. He was more a distraction than an asset. Simon had the savvy to withdraw from the election.
McClintock finished third against a horribly weak democrat.

[montag813]

Even Ronald Reagan as governor signed a bill to legalize abortion and was open-minded on homosexual rights.

The McClintockBots somehow overlooked this bit.

[DoctorZIn]

Your One Stop Resource For All The California Recall News!

Want on our daily or major news ping lists? Freepmail DoctorZin

[CyberAnt]

Hmmmm? I thought they just did .. my district was .. and because of that I ended up with one of the best reps - Duncan Hunter (R). I used to have that dippy woman - Susan Davis (D). I couldn't stand her .. she tried to pass herself off as really intelligent .. and she was a social worker from Massachusetts.

[CyberAnt]

Nope! Wouldn't have happened! Besides .. who cares! Together they have over 60% of the population who voted for a REPUBLICAN. And .. all the media ever said was this was a liberal state. This election proved that to be a big fat lie.

[CyberAnt]

Oh boy did we .. and the liberals are terrified!

[TEXOKIE]

bttt for later

[SAJ]

What nonsense. Redistricting is always, and in every state, conducted by the state Legislature...until, of course, a court somewhere says they've cheated, which any given Legislature almost invariably does. The Governor of a state can ear-bang with the Leggies to try to influence them (rotsa ruck -- even the dictatorial ''Kingfish'' Long in Louisiana was unable to influence redistricting in the upriver parishes), but has absotively posilutely ZERO active role in redistricting, short of threatening assorted Leggies (probably unlawful, but that consideration has NEVER stopped a Gov from trying).

[Rudder]

the party's conservative base rejected two candidates who could have defeated an unpopular Davis and nominated one who could not.

[Liz]

......Davis in the last week was calling for criminal prosecution of Schwarzenegger based on mainly anonymous accusations of sexual misbehavior on which the one-year statute of limitations had expired. ......

So, loser Dumbocrats want to out Hollyarped's sexual proclivities, eh?

Fine, let's have the whole story on the notorious Hollywarped " casting couch."

What do powerful Hollyweird producers demand from starlets who want movie parts?

What do starlets have to give producers in return for the chance at stardom?

Let's have the whole Hollywarped sex story. Not just the stories the Dumbocrats wanted about Arnold.

Dumbocrats want criminal prosecution for sex crimes? OK we'll give 'em criminal prosecution for sex crimes. They'll wish they never brought the subject up.

[G.Mason]

"Those eleventh hour attacks cannot be laid at the door of the Los Angeles Times and the New York Times as Democratic leaders now seek to do."

Nice try Novak.

I'm afraid the readers of those "waste of paper" propaganda machines won't agree with your "protecting my profession" pap.

[Right_in_Virginia]

I've heard enough from Mr. Novak to last a lifetime.

[leprechaun9]

Mulholland has many willing supporters. Unfortunately many of them are in the press, both broadcast ad print, INCLUDING NOVAK!

[Moby Grape]

Allow me to give you this laurel and hardy handshake.

[chilepepper]

McClintock showed by his actions that he is *NOT* a Republican...

[Reagan Man]

>>>McClintock showed by his actions that he is *NOT* a Republican...

That's you opinion and you're wrong. If McClintock hadn't stayed in the race, recall would have failed. You should thank McClintock's 13% of hardcore supporters. Without them Boy Davis would still be in office.

[chilepepper]

Staying in the race and insuring Davis ouster is NOT the same as being a Republican. Sometimes you have to be a team player and McClintock by his actions has shown himself to not be a team player.