McClintock Can't Win? Do the Math Again

Perspicacity & Paradigms Online ^ | October 1, 2003 | Rand Green

[Saundra Duffy]

McClintock can’t win? Do the math again!

From Perspicacity & Paradigms Online (www.perspicacityonline.com) Posted Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2003 By Rand Green P&P Editor & Publisher

OVERWHELMINGLY, Republicans who plan on voting for Arnold Schwarzenegger in the California gubernatorial election on October 7 justify their choice by saying that they would rather see Tom McClintock be governor but they just don’t believe Tom can win.

You hear it over and over again. On talk radio. In letters to the editor. On network interviews. In emails. In conversations around the water fountain at work or on the golf course or at Chamber of Commerce meetings or at church. The sentiment is seemingly ubiquitous. “We’re tired of losing. Sure, Arnold’s a social liberal, but he’s a fiscal conservative, and we’d rather have 75 percent of something than 100 percent of nothing. McClintock can’t win, and if he splits the Republican vote, it will assure a Bustamante victory.”

I do not believe I have heard a single Republican supporter of Mr. Scharzenegger declare that he is the best qualified candidate or the preferred choice; only that he is the most electable. Many Republican leaders, in endorsing Arnold, have said if the balance tipped and it appeared that Tom could win, they would eagerly support him. But that will never happen, they say. “This is, after all, California, and California is a Democratic state. The majority of Californians are social liberals, and even though we wish it were otherwise, a true conservative has no chance of winning. Do the math.”

The “math” they talk about is simple -- or, more accurately, simplistic: A week out from the election, Arnold Schwarzenegger was holding a two to one lead over Tom McClintock in the polls (40 percent to 18 percent), and Tom was trailing Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante. Therefore, they conclude, Tom lacks the support to beat Cruz, and Arnold is the Republican party’s only hope.

You know, ordinarily it’s the liberal media and the liberal Democrats that I frequently suggest need to take a class in remedial math. Now, I have to suggest that the California Republican leadership needs to do the same thing.

I’m not about to get on their case in this article for not voting their convictions, for not standing by their principles. It may well be time to preach to the choir, but I’ll do that in another piece. For the moment, I’d just like to set the record straight on the math.

Ever hear of self-fulfilling prophecy? Yeah. Well, that is exactly what is happening with the California Republican leadership’s support of Schwarzenegger. Convinced that the only kind of Republican that can win state-wide office in California is one who has broad appeal to social liberals, they have nobly sacrificed their own personal preference in the interest of what they deem the greater good.

Rather than throwing their wholehearted support behind a candidate of Tom McClintock’s caliber, integrity and conviction, rather than seizing an opportune moment to explain to Californians that liberalism is a flawed concept and is at the root of the state’s problems, rather than pointing out that the left has misrepresented conservatism and that only a conservative agenda will bring greater prosperity, freedom and opportunity for all, California’s Republican leaders have basically thrown in the towel and acknowledged tacit defeat. Better to settle for a liberal (or a moderate if you insist) with an R after his name than to wind up with nothing.

Not only have the leaders of the California Republican party almost unanimously thrown their support behind Arnold (although nearly one-third of the rank-and-file stand firmly behind Tom), but they have urged -- no, they have pressured Tom’s supporters to hold their noses at the ballot box and vote contrary to the dictates of their conscience. Misery loves company.

If every Republican voter in California who believes that Tom McClintock would be the best choice for governor -- if only he could win -- would vote for Tom McClintock, he would win by a landslide.

If every Republican leader in the state, every conservative organization, and every conservative talk show host who has supported Arnold Schwarzenneger had instead endorsed the candidate they’d really like to see win, if only he could, their influence would have assured a victory for Tom McClintock.

Instead, they are talking themselves blue in the face, sometimes with angry tones in their voices, lambasting McClintock supporters for standing stubbornly by their principles and “splitting the Republican vote.” It is a squandering of energy that would better be invested in extolling the virtues of conservatism and exposing the liberal myth. And it is disingenuous. Here’s why:

The fact is, McClintock supporters are not splitting the Republican vote. If anything, it is the other way around. After all, Tom McClintock was in the race first. But more to the point, if Arnold had not jumped in, who would these Republican leaders and conservative organizations be backing? If they really, honestly believe that Arnold is the only candidate with enough public appeal to win, why did they back the recall in the first place? If they were convinced that Tom McClintock or Darrel Issa or Bill Simon didn’t have a chance against any of the likely Democratic contenders, what did they think to gain by ousting Governor Davis?

Or did they have foreknowledge of a Schwarzenegger candidacy even before the Steroid Wonder had made his decision to run?

Now for the math. Let’s run the numbers.

With Bustamante at 25 percent and sliding, and McClintock at 18 percent and climbing, McClintock is only seven points back from beating Bustamante, and the gap is closing. Schwarzenegger supporters rant about how McClintock needs to drop out to assure a Republican victory, but nobody seems to be asking what would happen if Schwarzenegger pulled out of the race. A CNN poll actually posed that question, but apparently nobody in the new media liked the answer, because it never got reported!

According to the CNN poll, if Schwarzeneger were to drop out of the race, McClintock would beat Bustamante by 56 percent to 37 percent! The idea that Tom McClintock could not win is nonsense. The idea that a principled conservative cannot win in California is absurd. If Tom McClintock is not elected governor on October 7, it will not be because he is unelectable. It will not be because a social and fiscal liberal named Arnold Schwarzenegger -- who calls himself a Republican and who, by pretending to be a social moderate and a fiscal conservative, is pulling off the most successful acting roll of his career -- is the only R who can win. It will be because of self-fulfilling prophecy on the part of party leaders with a “we’re sick and tired of losing” mentality.

Here are some more highly relevant numbers. Senator McClintock has name recognition in California of 96 percent. Over 60 percent of California voters - and not just Republicans -- have a favorable impression of him, and only 20 percent have a negative opinion.

Given that Tom McClintock needs to gain only seven points to close the gap with Lt. Gov. Bustamante, and that the vast majority of those who say they’ll vote for Schwarzenegger would gladly tip to Tom if they thought he could win, it would only take a few key Republican leaders, even at this late date, to break ranks and call for their constituents to support McClintock, and people would quickly see that a McClintock victory is indeed possible. Once that possibility became apparent, Republican voters would run in droves to the other end of the teeter-totter.

They just need a little leadership to make that happen.

Or maybe they don’t. Maybe the voters of California will figure this out for themselves and vote their conscience, notwithstanding the endorsements of party leadership in favor of a candidate who is not their first choice. If that should happen, there are going to be a lot of high-profile Republicans in the state feeling more than a little chagrinned.

But what about this vote-split concern? What if some Arnold supporters switch to Tom but not in large enough numbers to give Tom the victory? Will not that vote splitting assure a Bustamante victory as so many Arnold supporters contend?

Not at all -- not unless, in the next few days, Bustamante makes a huge surge in the polls, which is unlikely as his popularity has been going steadily down, not up.

Again, let’s run the numbers. Clear, straightforward math.

Currently the polls show: Schwarzenegger, 40 percent. Bustamante, 25 percent. McClintock, 18 percent. Now follow me. Forty plus 18 equals 58. Combined, the Republican candidates beat Bustamante by well over two to one.

Suppose McClintock comes within one point of overtaking Bustamante but can’t quite pull over the top. We can assume that any McClintock gains are likely to come from Schwarzenegger voters, not Bustamante voters. So that would put McClintock at 24 percent, Bustamante at 25 percent, and Schwarzenegger at 34 percent, still the victor by a whopping nine point margin.

If McClintock gains eight points, enough to put him ahead of Bustamante by a point, that still leaves Schwarzenegger with 32 percent of the vote and an impressive seven point margin of victory.

Think what a well-deserved embarrassment that would be for the Democrats to have not one but two Republican candidates get more votes than the lieutenant governor.

You see, unless something happens to give Bustamante a tremendous boost, McClintock can’t possibly be a spoiler. So no one who in their heart of hearts would really rather cast a vote for McClintock than for Schwarzenegger needs to worry about being the cause of a Republican defeat if they vote their conscience. Arnold backers should just lay off the guilt trip, because it is without basis.

Maybe what some of those who say a principled conservative can’t win in California are really afraid of is not that McClintock supporters might split the ticket and cause Republicans to lose but that Tom might actually gain enough momentum to win, thus proving their pessimism unfounded. Maybe that’s why they are digging in and turning the turrets on their brethren instead of taking the battle to the foe.

Can Tom McClintock win on October 7? Yes he can. Do the math!

If all voters in California would vote their conscience, their principles, their head and their heart and not allow themselves to be intimidated, the numbers show that Tom McClintock would be California's next governor and the myth that that no principled conservative can win statewide office in the Golden State would be forever dispelled.

As Shakespeare wrote, and as Tom McClintock has recently quoted: “There is a tide in the affairs of men which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; Omitted, all the voyage of their life are spent in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat, and we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures.”

From Perspicacity & Paradigms (www.perspicacityonline.com). Copyright (c) 2003 by Rand Green Communications. Note: You may make coies of this article for free distribution, distribute it by email, or post it to the internet, if you do so in its entirety, complete with all credits and this copyright notice.

[inPhase]

Please stay professional to best reflect principle;

re your post busto for -geez- (creating a distance here) gov,

please, you are getting carried away. That is at least a personal opinion. Please make it known as such and that it is not Tom's. Further destroying a state to unite Repubs? Weak and destructive.

[inPhase]

re: entitled

Now I find myself defending Tom McClintock. We all know that he in no way thinks he is entitled to governor.

California is a politically fractured state.

Has anyone including some of his staff considered, as I saw posted on another thread, that Tom has to stay in until election eve?

If Arnold (don't like the thought) had to bow out, there would be no other Rep. cand.

[mrs tiggywinkle]

After two requests to answer my post #81, you still haven't. You claimed something to be true about Ray Haynes but obviously cannot back it up, Saundra. And you're avoiding my question. CONDUCT UNBECOMING for saying things and then not backing them up. Your comments are UNTRUE. Shame on you.

[inPhase]

It is simple. There are not enough conservatives in California. It is an invaded state in every way. I suspect that Arnold is bringing in many demos, middles and conservatives all for different reasons.

[inPhase]

either you do not vote or you are a moderate?

[PeoplesRepublicOfWashington]

Where's the picture of the flying pigs?

[Paulus Invictus]

Sorry to say it, but Mc Clintock is toast. He is a spoiler too, whether Ahnold wins or not.

[deport]

Now I find myself defending Tom McClintock. We all know that he in no way thinks he is entitled to governor.

---

Apparently some do..... read the 3rd paragraph of the Ray Haynes memo......

http://www.rumormillnews.com/cgi-bin/forum.cgi?read=37411

[Eagle Eye]

I don't vote for second or third choices. I vote for my preference on the ballot, not who I think will win so that I can get some sort of sick vicarious thrill from voting for the winnner while betraying my beliefs.

Some people find honor in building a life around compromise. I don't.

[mac_truck]

I'd rather have Bustamante as gov than Arnold ANY DAY.

Arianna, is that you?

[MeekOneGOP]

What's the prize for McClictock's . . . finish

The abiding respect of honest, honorable, and faithful conservatives who would not barter their votes for mere political expediency or sacrifice fundamental virtues and truths that form the living core of the conservative soul, without which there is no distinguishing between the Republican Party and its corrupt and decaying Democrat adversary.

May the chains of ignominy rest lightly but chafingly on your wretched worn ankles, quisling.

In other words, if voting for McClintock dilutes the GOP frontrunner Arnold's vote total to get MeCHA Man elected, then that's fine with you ?? Got it ...

Thinking out loud now: I wonder why it is that all these FAR LEFTIES, LIBS and 'PROGRESSIVES' are supporting McClintock ?? I think they very much realize that if they can get ENOUGH folks to vote for McC, they can get MeCHA Man sent to the Governor's house ...

Thinking of voting for McClintock instead of for Arnold ?? (post #544) ...

Cruz 'for me everything, for you, nada da** thing' Bustamante ...

Separated at birth ?? ...

“Bajez?! We don' need no steenkin' bajez!!”

http://mrgrumman.home.comcast.net/Stinkin.wav ...
(May need to click several times to make it work) ...

just my humble opinion. i hope arnold wins instead of MeCHA Man ...

[KC_Conspirator]

I have not seen McClintock poll more than 18% and I agree with you, he will not get more than that. Any other of this nonsense of "do the math" is just nonsense and delusion.

[mrs tiggywinkle]

yup.

[Mia T]

You see, unless something happens to give Bustamante a tremendous boost, McClintock can’t possibly be a spoiler. There's your math.

Your analysis neglects the obvious: The "something" that will happen to "give Bustamante a tremendous boost" is that old-math standby--Democrat voter fraud.

BTW, McClintock has demonstated a political rigidity that makes him uniquely unqualified to be governor of the hodgepodge that is CA-- as opposed to Arnold, with his easy charm, charisma, leadership skills and open mind.

And I was especially offended by McClintock's in fact exploitive faux outrage re the dem stink bombs.

It is critical to think out of the box, beyond California. For the clintons, the California recall election is no less than a proxy for their war with the Kennedys for the control of the Democrat Party (and the country).

EPILOGUE: THE 9^TH CIRCUIT RULING
(IMPEACHED EX- PREZ STUMPS FOR DAVIS
CLINTON PARADIGM PROVES INSTRUCTIVE FOR CALIFORNIA)

 

clinton: "This is WA-A-AY bigger than Gray Davis."

If ever there was
a counterexample
to Tip O'Neill's old saw
("all politics is local"),
it is the recall...
A vote for McClintock is a vote for HER

(requires Flash Player 6, available HERE)

hillary (oops!) talks
virtual hillary is the REAL hillary clinton
missus clinton's REAL virtual office update
http://hillarytalks.blogspot.com
http://www.hillarytalks.us
http://www.hillarytalks.org

(Who in his right mind would ever want the clintons back in the Oval Office?)

missus clinton's REAL virtual office update

Lib Author Regrets Voting (TWICE!) for clinton
"Sickened" by clinton's Failure to Protect America from Terrorism


MUST-READ BOOK FOR DEMOCRATS:
How clintons' Failures Unleashed Global Terror


The Man Who Warned America
(Why a Rapist is Not a Fit President)


UDAY: "The end is near… this time I think the… Americans are serious, Bush is not like Clinton."


eyes wide shut (she knew… she raped, too)


A '68 Mustang is not exculpatory

Q ERTY8^BUMP

[ServesURight]

MEGA-BUMP for Tom McClintock!!

[Golden Gate]

FR Mail for ServesURight

It's only Sat. - I have not voted yet. Since there are not any prominent conservative Democrats on the ballot, I expect my vote to be a 'Mia T VOTE FOR TOM!' After all, who else is there?

[absalom01]

BTW, McClintock has demonstated a political rigidity...

Yeah, well, I guess principle can look like rigidity, depending on your perspective.

I heard Shawn Steel one time make a comment that sums up my POV (I paraphrase from memory): "The Republican party is occasionally an instrument of liberty." On this occasion, Tom McClintock, with whatever human flaws he brings along, is the only candidate in this race who intends to advance the cause of liberty. Arnold may slow the march to totalitarianism, while Cruz may hasten it, but the simple fact is that Arnold and Cruz are marching down that road together.

Tom, and his sometimes cranky supporters, are heading in a different direction alltogether. It's probably a lost cause, but it's a worthy one, and the hour is getting late. We won't get many more chances to turn back, before we find ourselves living in a European style soft socialist state, or worse.

[jtill]

"However, in the leadership and judgment area, Tom is seriously deficient."

Please tell me, I really would like to know, just what do you know about Schwarzenegger's leadership ability and his judgment? Have you worked for/with him? Have you been in workshops/training/seminars with him? Or, have you seen him in movies and heard his election retoric?

[FreeReign]

According to the CNN poll, if Schwarzeneger were to drop out of the race, McClintock would beat Bustamante by 56 percent to 37 percent!

If CNN says it's true then it must be true.

[dcwusmc]

Then what is winning without principle? What does it gain you to win the Statehouse if all you do is fill it with a different pile of dog-doo? You haven't cleaned it out one whit. All you have done is create a BIGGER mess for someone ELSE to clean up. But you keep on WINNING... when the bill comes due, YOU can pay it. As for me and mine, New Hampshire just keeps on looking better, snow and all...