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McClintock Can't Win? Do the Math Again
Perspicacity & Paradigms Online ^ | October 1, 2003 | Rand Green

Posted on 10/03/2003 12:48:20 PM PDT by Saundra Duffy

McClintock can’t win? Do the math again!

From Perspicacity & Paradigms Online (www.perspicacityonline.com) Posted Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2003 By Rand Green P&P Editor & Publisher

OVERWHELMINGLY, Republicans who plan on voting for Arnold Schwarzenegger in the California gubernatorial election on October 7 justify their choice by saying that they would rather see Tom McClintock be governor but they just don’t believe Tom can win.

You hear it over and over again. On talk radio. In letters to the editor. On network interviews. In emails. In conversations around the water fountain at work or on the golf course or at Chamber of Commerce meetings or at church. The sentiment is seemingly ubiquitous. “We’re tired of losing. Sure, Arnold’s a social liberal, but he’s a fiscal conservative, and we’d rather have 75 percent of something than 100 percent of nothing. McClintock can’t win, and if he splits the Republican vote, it will assure a Bustamante victory.”

I do not believe I have heard a single Republican supporter of Mr. Scharzenegger declare that he is the best qualified candidate or the preferred choice; only that he is the most electable. Many Republican leaders, in endorsing Arnold, have said if the balance tipped and it appeared that Tom could win, they would eagerly support him. But that will never happen, they say. “This is, after all, California, and California is a Democratic state. The majority of Californians are social liberals, and even though we wish it were otherwise, a true conservative has no chance of winning. Do the math.”

The “math” they talk about is simple -- or, more accurately, simplistic: A week out from the election, Arnold Schwarzenegger was holding a two to one lead over Tom McClintock in the polls (40 percent to 18 percent), and Tom was trailing Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante. Therefore, they conclude, Tom lacks the support to beat Cruz, and Arnold is the Republican party’s only hope.

You know, ordinarily it’s the liberal media and the liberal Democrats that I frequently suggest need to take a class in remedial math. Now, I have to suggest that the California Republican leadership needs to do the same thing.

I’m not about to get on their case in this article for not voting their convictions, for not standing by their principles. It may well be time to preach to the choir, but I’ll do that in another piece. For the moment, I’d just like to set the record straight on the math.

Ever hear of self-fulfilling prophecy? Yeah. Well, that is exactly what is happening with the California Republican leadership’s support of Schwarzenegger. Convinced that the only kind of Republican that can win state-wide office in California is one who has broad appeal to social liberals, they have nobly sacrificed their own personal preference in the interest of what they deem the greater good.

Rather than throwing their wholehearted support behind a candidate of Tom McClintock’s caliber, integrity and conviction, rather than seizing an opportune moment to explain to Californians that liberalism is a flawed concept and is at the root of the state’s problems, rather than pointing out that the left has misrepresented conservatism and that only a conservative agenda will bring greater prosperity, freedom and opportunity for all, California’s Republican leaders have basically thrown in the towel and acknowledged tacit defeat. Better to settle for a liberal (or a moderate if you insist) with an R after his name than to wind up with nothing.

Not only have the leaders of the California Republican party almost unanimously thrown their support behind Arnold (although nearly one-third of the rank-and-file stand firmly behind Tom), but they have urged -- no, they have pressured Tom’s supporters to hold their noses at the ballot box and vote contrary to the dictates of their conscience. Misery loves company.

If every Republican voter in California who believes that Tom McClintock would be the best choice for governor -- if only he could win -- would vote for Tom McClintock, he would win by a landslide.

If every Republican leader in the state, every conservative organization, and every conservative talk show host who has supported Arnold Schwarzenneger had instead endorsed the candidate they’d really like to see win, if only he could, their influence would have assured a victory for Tom McClintock.

Instead, they are talking themselves blue in the face, sometimes with angry tones in their voices, lambasting McClintock supporters for standing stubbornly by their principles and “splitting the Republican vote.” It is a squandering of energy that would better be invested in extolling the virtues of conservatism and exposing the liberal myth. And it is disingenuous. Here’s why:

The fact is, McClintock supporters are not splitting the Republican vote. If anything, it is the other way around. After all, Tom McClintock was in the race first. But more to the point, if Arnold had not jumped in, who would these Republican leaders and conservative organizations be backing? If they really, honestly believe that Arnold is the only candidate with enough public appeal to win, why did they back the recall in the first place? If they were convinced that Tom McClintock or Darrel Issa or Bill Simon didn’t have a chance against any of the likely Democratic contenders, what did they think to gain by ousting Governor Davis?

Or did they have foreknowledge of a Schwarzenegger candidacy even before the Steroid Wonder had made his decision to run?

Now for the math. Let’s run the numbers.

With Bustamante at 25 percent and sliding, and McClintock at 18 percent and climbing, McClintock is only seven points back from beating Bustamante, and the gap is closing. Schwarzenegger supporters rant about how McClintock needs to drop out to assure a Republican victory, but nobody seems to be asking what would happen if Schwarzenegger pulled out of the race. A CNN poll actually posed that question, but apparently nobody in the new media liked the answer, because it never got reported!

According to the CNN poll, if Schwarzeneger were to drop out of the race, McClintock would beat Bustamante by 56 percent to 37 percent! The idea that Tom McClintock could not win is nonsense. The idea that a principled conservative cannot win in California is absurd. If Tom McClintock is not elected governor on October 7, it will not be because he is unelectable. It will not be because a social and fiscal liberal named Arnold Schwarzenegger -- who calls himself a Republican and who, by pretending to be a social moderate and a fiscal conservative, is pulling off the most successful acting roll of his career -- is the only R who can win. It will be because of self-fulfilling prophecy on the part of party leaders with a “we’re sick and tired of losing” mentality.

Here are some more highly relevant numbers. Senator McClintock has name recognition in California of 96 percent. Over 60 percent of California voters - and not just Republicans -- have a favorable impression of him, and only 20 percent have a negative opinion.

Given that Tom McClintock needs to gain only seven points to close the gap with Lt. Gov. Bustamante, and that the vast majority of those who say they’ll vote for Schwarzenegger would gladly tip to Tom if they thought he could win, it would only take a few key Republican leaders, even at this late date, to break ranks and call for their constituents to support McClintock, and people would quickly see that a McClintock victory is indeed possible. Once that possibility became apparent, Republican voters would run in droves to the other end of the teeter-totter.

They just need a little leadership to make that happen.

Or maybe they don’t. Maybe the voters of California will figure this out for themselves and vote their conscience, notwithstanding the endorsements of party leadership in favor of a candidate who is not their first choice. If that should happen, there are going to be a lot of high-profile Republicans in the state feeling more than a little chagrinned.

But what about this vote-split concern? What if some Arnold supporters switch to Tom but not in large enough numbers to give Tom the victory? Will not that vote splitting assure a Bustamante victory as so many Arnold supporters contend?

Not at all -- not unless, in the next few days, Bustamante makes a huge surge in the polls, which is unlikely as his popularity has been going steadily down, not up.

Again, let’s run the numbers. Clear, straightforward math.

Currently the polls show: Schwarzenegger, 40 percent. Bustamante, 25 percent. McClintock, 18 percent. Now follow me. Forty plus 18 equals 58. Combined, the Republican candidates beat Bustamante by well over two to one.

Suppose McClintock comes within one point of overtaking Bustamante but can’t quite pull over the top. We can assume that any McClintock gains are likely to come from Schwarzenegger voters, not Bustamante voters. So that would put McClintock at 24 percent, Bustamante at 25 percent, and Schwarzenegger at 34 percent, still the victor by a whopping nine point margin.

If McClintock gains eight points, enough to put him ahead of Bustamante by a point, that still leaves Schwarzenegger with 32 percent of the vote and an impressive seven point margin of victory.

Think what a well-deserved embarrassment that would be for the Democrats to have not one but two Republican candidates get more votes than the lieutenant governor.

You see, unless something happens to give Bustamante a tremendous boost, McClintock can’t possibly be a spoiler. So no one who in their heart of hearts would really rather cast a vote for McClintock than for Schwarzenegger needs to worry about being the cause of a Republican defeat if they vote their conscience. Arnold backers should just lay off the guilt trip, because it is without basis.

Maybe what some of those who say a principled conservative can’t win in California are really afraid of is not that McClintock supporters might split the ticket and cause Republicans to lose but that Tom might actually gain enough momentum to win, thus proving their pessimism unfounded. Maybe that’s why they are digging in and turning the turrets on their brethren instead of taking the battle to the foe.

Can Tom McClintock win on October 7? Yes he can. Do the math!

If all voters in California would vote their conscience, their principles, their head and their heart and not allow themselves to be intimidated, the numbers show that Tom McClintock would be California's next governor and the myth that that no principled conservative can win statewide office in the Golden State would be forever dispelled.

As Shakespeare wrote, and as Tom McClintock has recently quoted: “There is a tide in the affairs of men which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; Omitted, all the voyage of their life are spent in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat, and we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures.”

From Perspicacity & Paradigms (www.perspicacityonline.com). Copyright (c) 2003 by Rand Green Communications. Note: You may make coies of this article for free distribution, distribute it by email, or post it to the internet, if you do so in its entirety, complete with all credits and this copyright notice.


TOPICS: Activism/Chapters; Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: dreamon; math; mcclintock; newmath; perspicacity; randgreen; recall
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To: Consort
He will be a valuable asset in the Legislature for a GOP Governor.

You don't know how things around here work. The Republican leaders in this state have already found someone to run against McClintock in the next primary. "Punish your enemies; reward your friends!" In fact, all conservatives will be targeted for destruction if Arnold wins. He has contempt for us conservatives.

61 posted on 10/03/2003 2:00:00 PM PDT by Saundra Duffy (For victory & freedom!!!)
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To: Wheee The People
However, in the leadership and judgment area, Tom is seriously deficient.

LOL!!! You prefer Schwarznkennedy's "judgment"?!! Now THAT'S funny!!! Go, McClintock!!

62 posted on 10/03/2003 2:01:17 PM PDT by Saundra Duffy (For victory & freedom!!!)
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To: Saundra Duffy
Go, McClintock! www.helptom.com

Good for you! Popularity contests are for the teenagers and elections are for the adults. If Mcclintock doesn't win, tell him to move to my state we here in Illinois will vote for him. We've been needing REAL Republicans like Tom in our state and it just makes me puzzled to see so many FReepers in Cali throwing away that opportunity.

63 posted on 10/03/2003 2:02:22 PM PDT by m1-lightning (- A charge to keep -)
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To: My2Cents
When was the last time you voted for a Conservative regardless of the candidate's supposed chances of winning?

If you typically vote for moderates because they are 'electable' instead of Conservatives, doesn't that make you a Moderate, too?

64 posted on 10/03/2003 2:02:34 PM PDT by Eagle Eye (I'm a RINO. I'm far too conservative to be a real Republican.)
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To: Republic Rocker
Losing with principle is dignified
Winning without principle is Arkancide
65 posted on 10/03/2003 2:03:24 PM PDT by pgyanke (God doesn't compromise... and He didn't call us to either!)
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To: deport
Well, Davis is at work behind the scenes slashing and burning Arnold and apparently there's plenty of ammo. Meanwhile, Boostyourtaxes is looking pretty pathetic. If Boostyourtaxes drops out and tells everyone to vote NO on the recall and if Arnold continues to drop in favor, McClintock could still win. But come hell or high water, I'm supporting McClintock. I couldn't sleep at night otherwise.
66 posted on 10/03/2003 2:04:20 PM PDT by Saundra Duffy (For victory & freedom!!!)
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To: deport
Given your numbers... if Tom were to "split" the vote down the middle with (R)nold...

THEY STILL BEAT BUSTABUDGET!

Vote your conscience... it's safe and it's called Democracy.

67 posted on 10/03/2003 2:05:47 PM PDT by pgyanke (God doesn't compromise... and He didn't call us to either!)
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To: Wheee The People
In most areas, indeed Tom is the best candidate. However, in the leadership and judgment area, Tom is seriously deficient.

Do you know him personally or have you based your opinion of him on the filtering of the press? Think about that...

68 posted on 10/03/2003 2:07:57 PM PDT by pgyanke (God doesn't compromise... and He didn't call us to either!)
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To: Saundra Duffy
You don't know how things around here work.

That's a sad excuse from Conservatives who allowed the Liberals to take over and dominate the state government. Why should anybody trust the Conservatives to straighten out their act? If Tom is going to be ousted by own party leadership, then why wasn't he smart enough to not put himself in such a position?

69 posted on 10/03/2003 2:10:53 PM PDT by Consort
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To: EggsAckley
Gee, thanks... I liked your last ones better ;-)
70 posted on 10/03/2003 2:12:05 PM PDT by Tamzee ("Big government sounds too much like sluggish socialism."......Arnold Schwarzenegger)
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To: Saundra Duffy
One can't help but admire your loyalty and energy directed toward McClintock's candidacy.

I have yet to note, though, where anyone here has indicated that they're moving from the Arnold column to the Tom column.

Is there any reason to think that you'll be more successful among the general California population than here?

71 posted on 10/03/2003 2:12:08 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Saundra Duffy
I'd rather have Bustamante as gov than Arnold ANY DAY.

Clearly I can't have a rational conversation with you after that statement.

72 posted on 10/03/2003 2:16:56 PM PDT by finnman69 (!)
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To: Saundra Duffy
The objective isn't to unite Republicans, it's to fix California. To do that, you need to unite Californians...uniting 35% of the population doesn't do squat.

I'm not an Arnold fan and didn't vote for him, but McClintock supporters need to get over this "Republican" worship. There is no such thing as Governor of Republican California. Frankly I like McClintock's ideas more than any other candidate's, but he shows NO ability to work with anyone in Sacramento. People may not like it, but it's a job requirement.

And lastly, all of this "compromising principles" nonsense that we hear from various posters on FR is just that...nonsense. Unless one is voting for oneself, it is impossible NOT to compromise some principle when voting because no two people think alike on every single issue. (E.g. how many conservatives are thrilled with the politically correct tax loophole for Indian gaming?)

Frankly, the most imporant principle when voting is to determine what is the best POSSIBLE outcome after taking everything into account. And that means everthing: fiscal, social policy, long term & short term affect on the state and its people, etc. I can understand how reasonable people come down on either side based on the PRIORITIZATION of their principles...Tom or Arnold...but the fact is that every single voter has compromised some principle.
73 posted on 10/03/2003 2:17:32 PM PDT by Cousin Eddie
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To: pgyanke
Losing with principle is dignified

Losing with principle is still losing.

74 posted on 10/03/2003 2:18:10 PM PDT by finnman69 (!)
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To: Saundra Duffy
"I'd rather have Bustamante as gov than Arnold ANY DAY. Bustamante would UNITE Republicans. Schwarznkennedy would DESTROY the CA Republican Party, just like Pete Wilson did."

There, you've said it. Feel better? After a decade of Cruz, Republicans will indeed be united, in Nevada and points east, and my family will be with them. This isn't about the ideological purity of the Stupid Republican party, it's about keeping an avowed Socialist from occuping the Governor's office of the State of California.

Socialism has some strange allies in this state...

75 posted on 10/03/2003 2:18:39 PM PDT by TommyUdo (Cruz wins, I'm moving from CA to your State and voting a Straight Democratic ticket)
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To: Saundra Duffy
I hope this isn't a duplicate posting. Go, McClintock! www.helptom.com

FOR YOUR INFORMATION!! If you have not signed up for the walk tomorrow, you can go here , download the file and print off flyers. WALK YOUR OWN NEIGHBOR HOOD EVERYONE!!!! GO TOM GO....GRASSROOTS is ALIVE and WELL!!!!!

http://www.tommcclintock.com/resources/ac_flyer.pdf

76 posted on 10/03/2003 2:18:43 PM PDT by pollywog
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To: finnman69
LOL!
77 posted on 10/03/2003 2:21:12 PM PDT by VU4G10 (Have You Forgotten?)
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To: Saundra Duffy
I'd rather have Bustamante as gov than Arnold ANY DAY.

No wonder the Democrats dominate California government.

78 posted on 10/03/2003 2:24:37 PM PDT by Consort
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To: Cousin Eddie
I can understand how reasonable people come down on either side based on the PRIORITIZATION of their principles...Tom or Arnold...but the fact is that every single voter has compromised some principle.

Very well said.

Most people conduct some sort of balancing act in deciding whom to vote for, but others base it entirely on a single issue that is a veto-maker. There are several of those hot button issues, and those voters are willing to cast protest votes for candidates with no chance.

Others simply decide that they'll vote for the candidate closest to their own views and let the chips fall where they may.

I like to vote for the candidate closest to my views with a realistic shot of getting elected.

79 posted on 10/03/2003 2:32:22 PM PDT by Dog Gone
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To: Consort
Yes...it is no wonder.

Liberals within the Republican party have completely disgusted conservatives to the point at which they'd rather a Democrat win so that some semblance of a difference between the two parties might be maintained. It has taken decades, but RINOs have finally succeeded after decades of refusing conservatives a voice at the table.
80 posted on 10/03/2003 2:33:15 PM PDT by Maelstrom (To prevent misinterpretation or abuse of the Constitution:The Bill of Rights limits government power)
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