Stuart Rothenberg: "Thune Wants To Run Against Daschle", Will Not Return To House!!!

Roll Call ^ | September 22, 2003 | Roll Call

[Pubbie]

So far, the important numbers of this year's Senate cycle are "4" and "7." There are now four open seats, and races in seven states are currently on the board as top-tier contests.

The three open Democratic Senate seats, all of them in the South, clearly are prime opportunities for Republican takeovers. While Democrats may well field a credible candidate in South Carolina – either state Superintendent of Public Instruction Inez Tenenbaum or Columbia Mayor Bob Coble – the state's partisan bent, especially in a presidential year, gives the eventual GOP nominee the advantage.

In Georgia, Democrats may turn their nomination over to former Atlanta mayor, former Congressman and former U.N. Representative Andrew Young. While Young, 71, is a hero of the civil rights movement and a figure of considerable achievement and stature, he looks to have considerable weaknesses as a Senate candidate.

The GOP side of the ledger in the Peach State is still scrambled, with three major hopefuls competing for their party's nomination, Reps. Johnny Isakson and Mac Collins, and dynamic African-American businessman Herman Cain. But that shouldn't seriously undercut the GOP's initial edge in the race unless Democrats nominate a candidate with broader appeal than Young.

In North Carolina, Sen. John Edwards' decision not to seek a second term makes 2002 Senate nominee Erskine Bowles the odds-on favorite for the Democratic nomination, though he could face primary competition.

But while Bowles' financial resources, statewide name identification and campaign experience warrant putting this contest in the "tossup" category, Democrats shouldn't kid themselves about their prospects for holding the open seat. Bowles ran a good race in 2002 but drew just 45 percent...

...But Bowles' showing also serves as a reminder that even good Democratic Senate candidates normally draw between 45 percent and 48 percent of the vote there, and that a solid GOP nominee, backed by a united party and adequate financial resources, begins with a measurable advantage in the Tar Heel State...

...In South Dakota, Sen. Tom Daschle (D) will or will not be in a tight race – depending on whether former Rep. John Thune (R) challenges him. Thune wants to take on Daschle (and does NOT want to run again for the House), but after his narrow Senate loss in 2002, the former Congressman is delaying a final decision...

...If Thune runs, the South Dakota Senate race immediately becomes a tossup. And don't believe that talk that if Thune couldn't beat Johnson, he can't beat Daschle. The dynamics are different because it's a presidential year and Daschle is no longer the Majority Leader.

[Impy]

Dashole's been kind quiet latley.

[Impy]

Collins or Cain will consolidate conservative support and beat Isakson in the primary runnoff. Good thing GA has primary runnoffs or Isakson would win.

Go Cain!!