Posted on 09/26/2003 9:10:06 PM PDT by Brian S
By JEFF SALLOT, DREW FAGAN and JOHN STACKHOUSE
Ottawa — Osama bin Laden is alive, has been moving freely between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and appears to have enjoyed a groundswell of anti-American passions in the region since the war in Iraq, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf said Thursday on his first official visit to Canada.
In a wide-ranging interview with The Globe and Mail, General Musharraf cautioned that it may take years to catch the al-Qaeda leader, despite a full-time hunt by Pakistani and U.S. intelligence agencies. He compared the pursuit to that of Che Guevara, the Latin American Communist revolutionary who was chased through the jungle and shot to death in 1967 by Bolivian troops working with the CIA.
Asked whether Mr. bin Laden is definitely alive, he replied: "Yes, indeed. I am reasonably sure."
The President, who has kept his role as army chief of staff since seizing power in a 1999 coup, cited his own military intelligence, saying "technical means" have made him certain of Mr. bin Laden's presence in the region.
He said new intelligence support from the United States has led him to believe "we were getting close, we knew he was in the mountains. Either across or on our side. But he was in the mountains."
In the hour-long interview, held in a state guest house next to Rideau Hall, Gen. Musharraf discussed the many frustrations in the hunt for Mr. bin Laden, the danger of Islamic extremism in Pakistan and his advice for the Canadian peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan, which he described as inherently dangerous and likely to result in Canadian casualties.
He also insisted that any blame for the failure to capture the al-Qaeda leader, who has a $25-million (U.S.) bounty on his head, must be shared by Washington.
"Let it be clear to everyone: if I'm to blame, President [George W.] Bush is equally to blame. If ISI is to blame, then the CIA is equally to blame," he said, using the initials for the Pakistani and U.S. intelligence services.
The Pakistani President, who is widely seen as a linchpin in the war on terror, is in Ottawa for two days of fence-mending with Canada. Bilateral relations soured in 1998 when Islamabad followed India's lead and tested a series of nuclear bombs. Relations deteriorated further a year later when Gen. Musharraf overthrew a civilian government. He continues to refuse Commonwealth demands that he fully restore democracy, saying in the interview that conditions for an end to his rule may be years away.
Dressed in civilian clothes, the President was most animated in his defence of Pakistan's contribution to Washington's "war on terror." He described in detail an unprecedented intelligence operation by U.S. and Pakistani agencies in the border regions. Mr. bin Laden and remnants of the Afghan Taliban regime are thought to be hiding in a wild tribal territory, high in rugged mountains, where the Pakistan government has been unable to exert effective control, he said.
"The border is porous. There is no doubt about it."
He said he was not aware of how many al-Qaeda members were going back and forth between Afghanistan and Pakistan until some of the group's leaders were captured. Mr. bin Laden's operational chief, Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, was found hiding in Rawalpindi, where the Pakistani military is headquartered, last March.
Gen. Musharraf's government has only recently — this summer in some places — established border posts in the mountain valleys where hundreds of fugitives are thought to have sought shelter. But even still, he said the Pakistani military cannot exert complete control.
"It is well nigh impossible for any army in the world, not the least the Pakistan army, to seal the border."
He once thought that Mr. bin Laden was dead, basing that assessment on his belief that the al-Qaeda leader was in poor health and needed kidney dialysis. Mr. bin Laden's hideout in the Tora Bora caves in eastern Afghanistan were extensively bombed by U.S. forces in late 2001, making it difficult to believe that he survived.
But the general said he changed his mind when he heard intelligence intercepts of al-Qaeda communications. He said because of sightings of Mr. bin Laden in remote areas, he now doubts the earlier intelligence reports that suggested the al-Qaeda leader needed dialysis.
The Pakistani President also said that Mr. bin Laden may have ventured into major Pakistani cities such as Rawalpindi. "It's a possibility. I won't rule it out."
He referred to the al-Qaeda and Taliban fugitives as "very clever" and said they enjoy widespread support in the lawless border areas.
As a military officer, he said he has high regard for the Taliban fighters who once ruled Afghanistan and provided sanctuary to al-Qaeda, and now appear to be regrouping in the border provinces with Pakistan. He also raised concern that if more foreign forces are not deployed to Afghanistan, the Taliban may join forces with regional warlords and overthrow the government there.
"They are far better than any other soldiers in the world. If you go into the mountain they will beat you. They will be faster. They know the routes. They are more hardy."
Still, he is confident that al-Qaeda and the Taliban will be rooted out by U.S. and Pakistani intelligence efforts because "time is on our side."
He said the hunt for al-Qaeda leaders was going slowly until Pakistani intelligence efforts were improved in the border areas. The statement is surprising, given that it was Pakistani military officials who helped the Taliban emerge as a serious force in that area in the mid-1990s.
Since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, the U.S. government has provided critical technical support to the manhunt, in the form of cellphone interceptors and pilotless Predator aircraft. But the al-Qaeda and Taliban fugitives still held the upper hand because the local population refused to reveal their whereabouts, Gen. Musharraf said.
He believes most Afghans and Pakistanis in the border regions have probably never heard of the massive bounties offered by the United States. More important, he said, the notoriously insular ethnic groups that dominate the lawless region have turned vehemently anti-American since the Iraq war.
"There is an anti-U.S. feeling. There is no doubt about that. Maybe it has got worse after Iraq."
He believes a growing sense of hostility between largely Muslim nations and the West is the most serious problem facing the world. "There is general feeling that maybe the Muslim world or the religion of Islam is being targeted [by Western governments]. This is a general feeling. This is the main problem, actually, I would say in the whole Muslim world, in the masses of the Muslim world. In the common man in the Muslim world. This is the perception. While the perception in the West is the opposite, that Islam as a religion is a religion of extremism, terrorism, fundamentalism, intolerance. These two perceptions are alive in the whole world and this is very dangerous."
While Gen. Musharraf criticized the Iraq war for inflaming anti-U.S. sentiment, he said Western military powers must beef up their presence in Afghanistan if they want to see stability last in that country.
He suggested Canada, with almost 2,000 soldiers operating out of the capital Kabul, and other members of the international stabilization force, extend their areas of operation to provinces where warlords still run the show. There are about a dozen such "power centres" and it will take up to 1,500 foreign troops in each one to keep the warlords in check, he said.
The international forces may have been hesitant to move into these areas because of the dangers.
"It's an inhospitable area. There may be a few casualties."
But he said any failure by the international forces to protect President Hamid Karzai and his government would be disastrous, not only for Afghanistan but for international security.
"He must survive, otherwise there will be chaos."
And that's just from the 10 DemocRAT presidential candyasses....errr, I mean....candidates.
Regardless. They will be dead and in hell soon. Unless they repent.
What? Did a cave collapse in Tora Bora? :-)
What a joke. This guy is delusional, if he really believes hat, and has no idea, *none*, of what American soldiers are like.
But this is good news... If Bin Ladin keeps moving, we'll get him. His only defense is to stay holed up. I'm hoping CIA has got him convinced (if indeed he's alive, which I seriously doubt) that it's safe to move... outwitting him in that fashion will provide a greatly satisfying blow to the collective Islamic ego.
Incidentally, one area in which Musharraf and I would probably agree is that the battle in the mountains of Afghanistan, and not the current squabble in Iraq, is the most important for us to win. The rug pilots are still preening over their success against the Bear in Afghanistan. They sit around their hookahs doping themselves with hashish and muttering ominously about what will happen if the Infidels dare to attack them in the mountains of Afghanistan and Pakistan. They believe - rightly or wrongly - that that is the true test of their strength against us. If we can destroy them in that environment, it will send shock waves of dismay throughout Islam.
Fundamentally, this is a battle of Cro-Magnons against Neanderthals, of modern man against atavism, against cave men. Crazy as it sounds, demonstrating that modern technology is capable of destroying them in their caves, no matter how remote or how deep, will demoralize and disrupt them far more than anything else we have done thus far.
Why would a multi-millionaire wait for the gunships?
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