Posted on 09/25/2003 6:59:03 AM PDT by Coop
Why?
-We’re engaged in a long-term war against an enigmatic enemy, with no end in sight
-American military members are suffering and dying at the hands of terrorists on foreign soil
-The media makes a concerted effort to only portray the President in a negative light
-The President’s job approval numbers are well under 60%, with just over a year left until the election
-The President scores well under 50% on polls asking if he should be re-elected
-The economy is struggling to emerge from a recent recession
-Defense spending is way up
-Budget deficits are a serious concern
-National unemployment is over 6%
-The Democrats have assembled a formidable, diverse group of contenders that criticize the President constantly, including one quote: "If [our soldiers] were sent there to fight, they are too few. If they were sent there to die, they are too many."
Does anyone recall how the President did in his 1984 re-election bid?
(And for those who are wondering, my enigmatic war comment was a reference to the Cold War. And unemployment back then was about 9%.)
NOT!!!!!
Doom and Gloom. Sigh!
BTW, anyone recall what BJC's approval numbers were at the same point in his first term?
From this link.
Former President Reagan was re-elected in a landslide with a 58% job approval. Former President Clinton won re-election overwhelmingly with a 54% job approval. No president has been defeated with a job approval above 50%.
I'm very sorry you're struggling, Dear. How may I help?
I'd like to say that guy was me, but alas, no. Once again a day late and a dollar short. :-)
The magic number is 50%. In the last 40 years, a president who is at 50% or higher on January 1st of the election year has won re-election. Those under 50% on that date, have lost. Period.
Bush is anywhere from 49 to 58% now. He needs to shore up his numbers by the end of the year. This is important for several reasons. First, fundraising. People stop giving money if they think it will be a waste. Secondly, the inevitability factor. People like backing a winner. You would be amazed at some in the mushy middle who will vote where they think most people are, because they like being on the winning side, and it doesn't really matter to them too much which side they are supporting. Thirdly, media coverage. The media are fear mongers, hype mongers, and pack animals. If the president appears unbeatable, they keep repeating that. If they sense weakness, they pound on him, and ignore the opposition's weakness. They are hyenas. Literally.
Yes, but Mondale did win Minnesota.
How may I help? Stop posting excrements of your "thought" process. That would be a terrific start.
There are two key points that put President Bush's re-election hopes in a more precarious position than President Reagan's.
1.) While Reagan's approval rating at this point in 1983 was at 48% (similar to Bush's in some recent polls), his rating had already been steadily rising for eight months. He had already hit his low in January, 1983 and was well into the ascent that culminated in a landslide re-election. By contrast, Bush is declining at the same point in time. We don't know whether he's bottomed out yet or not.
2.) I've done a lot of correlations between unemployment rates and re-election outcomes of presidents. I've found that the key component is the direction of the unemployment rate from the middle of the year before the election to the middle of the year of the election. Though unemployment was considerably higher during Reagan's first term compared to Bush's, the rate had dropped about 3 percentage points during the key time-frame I've cited. We'll just to wait and see how it will look for Bush next summer.
If I could ask you, are you concerned with Bush having alienated many conservatives? I have only anecdotal evidence for that but the sample is telling: many people here on FR state they'd not vote for Bush.
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