If I could ask you, are you concerned with Bush having alienated many conservatives? I have only anecdotal evidence for that but the sample is telling: many people here on FR state they'd not vote for Bush.
Democrats are going to push for things that will piss the base off. Medicare bill, and assault weapons ban. The President said he will sign both. The weapons bill is a non loser for the dems. The raving liberals will not care if he signs it, even if they agree with it, and hard core 2nd amendment supporters will be disgusted.
There are alot of single issue people here. There are the open borders crowd. The President went out of his way to insult Tom Cancredo, (R) colorado, for being opposed to open borders. Tom might take his ball and go home if the White House bashes him some more. Supporters of his might follow.
The economy is iffy. Unemployment is still lagging the recession, durable goods just took a hit today, indicating people are slowing down on spending on high ticket items.
However, never question a democrat's ability to snatch defeat from victory. They could toss a hardcore basketcase liberal against Bush and he would mop the floor with him.
My genuine belief is that there will be a replay of election 2000. It will be extremely tight. 49 to 49 with 2% going to third parties. Whoever wins will end up pissing off half the nation.
Like many Freepers I am considering voting for the candidate who will take the most votes away from Bush, thereby electing a liberal demoncRAT.
As conservatives this is what we must do... help elect liberals.