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The President’s Re-election Prospects Have Nearly Disappeared
Varied Internet sources, via Google ^
| 9/25/03
| Coop
Posted on 09/25/2003 6:59:03 AM PDT by Coop
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If there had been a Free Republic back in late
1983, I have no doubt that at least one thread like this one would have popped up and subsequently been filled with handwringers and those itching to see the incumbent go down. Because these were the realities with which that particular President was dealing.
Does anyone recall how the President did in his 1984 re-election bid?
(And for those who are wondering, my enigmatic war comment was a reference to the Cold War. And unemployment back then was about 9%.)
1
posted on
09/25/2003 6:59:03 AM PDT
by
Coop
To: Coop
Hmmm... Sounds like Reagan's first term. Maybe that's why he wasn't re-elected...
NOT!!!!!
2
posted on
09/25/2003 7:03:50 AM PDT
by
69ConvertibleFirebird
(Never argue with an idiot. They drag you down to their level, then beat you with experience.)
To: Coop
3
posted on
09/25/2003 7:04:40 AM PDT
by
Blood of Tyrants
(Even if the government took all your earnings, you wouldn’t be, in its eyes, a slave.)
To: Coop
The Presidents job approval numbers are well under 60%, with just over a year left until the election Doom and Gloom. Sigh!
BTW, anyone recall what BJC's approval numbers were at the same point in his first term?
4
posted on
09/25/2003 7:04:52 AM PDT
by
Don Carlos
(El que no le gusta vino es un amimal.)
To: Coop
1. It's hard to understand the point you are making.
2. Citing unnamed Google.com sources is a rather low standard.
5
posted on
09/25/2003 7:04:58 AM PDT
by
TopQuark
To: JohnHuang2; PhiKapMom; Corin Stormhands; GraniteStateConservative; Dog
Flag
6
posted on
09/25/2003 7:05:07 AM PDT
by
Coop
(God bless our troops!)
To: Don Carlos
BTW, anyone recall what BJC's approval numbers were at the same point in his first term? From this link.
Former President Reagan was re-elected in a landslide with a 58% job approval. Former President Clinton won re-election overwhelmingly with a 54% job approval. No president has been defeated with a job approval above 50%.
7
posted on
09/25/2003 7:07:21 AM PDT
by
Coop
(God bless our troops!)
To: TopQuark
1. It's hard to understand the point you are making. I'm very sorry you're struggling, Dear. How may I help?
8
posted on
09/25/2003 7:07:52 AM PDT
by
Coop
(God bless our troops!)
To: Coop
Hey, Coop, I actualy heard a guy on WMAL last night address the same things
the only President recently with good numbers at this point in the Presidency was Bush 1
and look what happened.
9
posted on
09/25/2003 7:07:58 AM PDT
by
vin-one
(I wish i had something clever to put in this tag)
To: vin-one
Hey, Coop, I actualy heard a guy on WMAL last night address the same things I'd like to say that guy was me, but alas, no. Once again a day late and a dollar short. :-)
10
posted on
09/25/2003 7:09:12 AM PDT
by
Coop
(God bless our troops!)
To: TopQuark
He was making a Reagan analogy. The problem with the Reagan analogy though is that Reagan was at 35% in January 83, and was climbing all spring and summer.
The magic number is 50%. In the last 40 years, a president who is at 50% or higher on January 1st of the election year has won re-election. Those under 50% on that date, have lost. Period.
Bush is anywhere from 49 to 58% now. He needs to shore up his numbers by the end of the year. This is important for several reasons. First, fundraising. People stop giving money if they think it will be a waste. Secondly, the inevitability factor. People like backing a winner. You would be amazed at some in the mushy middle who will vote where they think most people are, because they like being on the winning side, and it doesn't really matter to them too much which side they are supporting. Thirdly, media coverage. The media are fear mongers, hype mongers, and pack animals. If the president appears unbeatable, they keep repeating that. If they sense weakness, they pound on him, and ignore the opposition's weakness. They are hyenas. Literally.
To: Coop
Former President Reagan was re-elected in a landslide with a 58% job approval.Yes, but Mondale did win Minnesota.
12
posted on
09/25/2003 7:11:50 AM PDT
by
kevao
(Fuques France!)
Comment #13 Removed by Moderator
To: Coop
I'm very sorry you're struggling, Dear. Not only you insist on stupidity, but you are also becoming presumptuous.
How may I help? Stop posting excrements of your "thought" process. That would be a terrific start.
14
posted on
09/25/2003 7:14:01 AM PDT
by
TopQuark
To: Coop
Because these were the realities with which that particular President was dealing. Does anyone recall how the President did in his 1984 re-election bid? There are two key points that put President Bush's re-election hopes in a more precarious position than President Reagan's.
1.) While Reagan's approval rating at this point in 1983 was at 48% (similar to Bush's in some recent polls), his rating had already been steadily rising for eight months. He had already hit his low in January, 1983 and was well into the ascent that culminated in a landslide re-election. By contrast, Bush is declining at the same point in time. We don't know whether he's bottomed out yet or not.
2.) I've done a lot of correlations between unemployment rates and re-election outcomes of presidents. I've found that the key component is the direction of the unemployment rate from the middle of the year before the election to the middle of the year of the election. Though unemployment was considerably higher during Reagan's first term compared to Bush's, the rate had dropped about 3 percentage points during the key time-frame I've cited. We'll just to wait and see how it will look for Bush next summer.
To: melchizedek
What?
16
posted on
09/25/2003 7:16:36 AM PDT
by
Pan_Yans Wife
("Life isn't fair. It's fairer than death, is all.")
To: dogbyte12
Thanks for the very informative post.
If I could ask you, are you concerned with Bush having alienated many conservatives? I have only anecdotal evidence for that but the sample is telling: many people here on FR state they'd not vote for Bush.
17
posted on
09/25/2003 7:17:26 AM PDT
by
TopQuark
To: Coop
Where did you find this info .. The DNC website?
18
posted on
09/25/2003 7:17:50 AM PDT
by
Mo1
(http://www.favewavs.com/wavs/cartoons/spdemocrats.wav)
To: Coop
14 months out and folks are discounting the prospects for the re-election of Prez Bush. LOL! Way too early since he hasn't actually started campaigning yet and much can happen in 14 months.
To: melchizedek
Got a link for that?
20
posted on
09/25/2003 7:19:08 AM PDT
by
Mo1
(http://www.favewavs.com/wavs/cartoons/spdemocrats.wav)
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