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“Tom Can’t Win”? Wrong – Do the Math – Silent Switch Makes McClintock Governor
9-22-03
Posted on 09/22/2003 7:28:24 AM PDT by tallhappy
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To: chilepepper
Does McClintock more reflect your values and opions or does Schwarzenegger?
To: tallhappy
60% of Schwazenegger voters won't show up to the polls if he drops out. The 25 year old pierced Jiffy Lube employee isn't going to show for McClintock. He will show for the Terminator.
Sadly, this is not about public policy. It is about celebrity.
22
posted on
09/22/2003 7:48:20 AM PDT
by
Uncle Miltie
(This Islamofascism has been brought to you by Saudi Arabia!)
To: strela
It seems that just about everyone pushing Schwarzenegger as the best chance for Republicans also feel McClintock would be preferable if he had a chance to win Who are these people?
23
posted on
09/22/2003 7:49:05 AM PDT
by
Hillary's Lovely Legs
(There is no shame in being poor, just dressing poorly.)
To: tallhappy
McClintock reflects my values and opinions, however after careful examination of the voting populace and Tom's poll numbers, I know he can't win this thing. So the best I can support is just a "little bit of my values, and a smidgeon of my opinions" (ie, Arnold).
24
posted on
09/22/2003 7:51:14 AM PDT
by
Registered
(Gray Davis won't be baaaaahhck)
To: Brad Cloven
60% of Schwazenegger voters won't show up to the polls if he drops out. Schwarzenegger doesn't drop pot in this scenario.
Conservatives simply decide not to vote for him on election day and vote for McClintock. Because of the ususual nature of this election, the Democrat candidate, Bustamante, will not garner as large a percentage of the votes as he would in a regular general election.
It is the October 8 Silent Surprise.
To: Brad Cloven
It's that Metrosexual thing that Schwazenegger flaunts in everyones face. That big "Girlie ring" and the "Don Johnson Clothing".
Metrosexual Arnold.
26
posted on
09/22/2003 7:52:42 AM PDT
by
Afronaut
(How can you vote for a Liberal?)
To: tallhappy
McClintock. But that's irrelevant to the fact that wishing that "only" 60% would switch. Wishing to win over 20% would be optimistic. Wishing to win over 60% is fantasizing, in my opinion.
Don't mistake my opinion over what the reality is as being happy that things are the way they are. But to hope that a majority of another's support will change their minds in a period of two or three weeks just doesn't sound to me like a realistic hope.
27
posted on
09/22/2003 7:52:48 AM PDT
by
William McKinley
(http://williammckinley.blogspot.com)
To: tallhappy
It is the October 8 Silent Surprise.
That would certainly surprise me.
28
posted on
09/22/2003 7:52:51 AM PDT
by
Registered
(Gray Davis won't be baaaaahhck)
To: strela
29
posted on
09/22/2003 7:53:42 AM PDT
by
Tamzee
("Big government sounds too much like sluggish socialism."......Arnold Schwarzenegger)
To: Registered
McClintock reflects my values and opinions, however after careful examination of the voting populace and Tom's poll numbers, I know he can't win this thing. Do The Math.
If you represent 60% of the Schwarzenegger voters he can win.
In a general election you would be right.
This recall is anomalous.
Do the math. It would be a silent suprise. 60% of the people now voting for Schwarzenegger switch silently on election to McClintock.
The world would be stunned.
To: tallhappy
Wasn't talking about values.
If he can't get elected, they won't make any difference.
SOmetimes when the grocery store is out of my favorite food item, I have to accept something lesser or go hungry...it's just that simple.
31
posted on
09/22/2003 7:55:36 AM PDT
by
capt. norm
(You have the right to remain silent. Anything you say will be misquoted, then used against you.)
To: tallhappy
That's the best argument for voting for McClintock -- that this is a unique election that gives a true conservative a chance to win.
Unfortunately, I don't think that's going to happen. Another dynamic may be that if McClintock started polling well and beating Arnold, some of Arnold's other support -- from Dems and centrists -- may go to Bustamonte because they don't want to see McClintock win. If Arnold collapses, that turns it into a two candidate race, and that makes it tougher for McClintock. You can't change one variable and assume that the race dynamics stay the same.
But like I said, you present the best argument for supporting McClintock at this stage. I'm not quite sure why your post is generating the antipathy coming its way.
32
posted on
09/22/2003 7:56:25 AM PDT
by
XJarhead
To: tallhappy
Yes the ifa, coulda, woulda, but will it happen? Most likely not but nothing is impossible until the last vote is counted.....
The following makes me wonder what it is about McClintock that keeps Conservatives and Republicans from supporting him. Apparently they know something.....
Currently, Bustamante is the favorite among Democratic voters (49%); Republicans prefer Schwarzenegger (47%) to McClintock (24%); and independents are more evenly divided between Bustamante with 24 percent and Schwarzenegger with 21 percent, while 12 percent support McClintock. Nearly half of Latinos support Bustamante (49%). Among white voters 28 percent would vote for Schwarzenegger and 25 percent for Bustamante; 15 percent support McClintock. Bustamantes support is highest among liberals (50%), Schwarzeneggers is highest among conservatives (42%), and moderates are divided between Bustamante (24%) and Schwarzenegger (25%). Although McClintock gets his highest support from conservatives, they favor Schwarzenegger even more (29% to 42%).
What I don't understand is that if McClintock is so strong among conservatives why is it they don't support him above the 29% level? He's been in the CA political scene for most or all of his adult life. So he must be well known within the Party and especially among it's so called conservatives. Yet he draws less than 30% support. That says something about him...... Just what it says I'm not sure other than he can't win with that kind of base support....
He draws 24% from the Republican Party. Not good for someone with his years of service.... Again what do the CA Republican Party members know that keeps them for supporting him in much higher numbers?
33
posted on
09/22/2003 7:56:46 AM PDT
by
deport
(Man with one clock knows the time..... man with two clocks doesn't know the time)
To: Afronaut
Metrosexual Arnold. Ridiculous.
34
posted on
09/22/2003 7:57:52 AM PDT
by
sinkspur
(Adopt a dog or a cat from a shelter! You'll save at least one life, maybe two!)
To: tallhappy
I dunno. FR types could "switch" -- bear in mind that such folks are generally polling for McClintock already -- without it making much difference.
And with no disrespect intended, it's virtually unheard of for 60% of candidate A's supporters to go over to candidate B, when they are rivals and when the "switch" is to occur within only a few weeks, without time for the rivalry's wounds to heal. Months, maybe, but weeks? Very rare.
If Tom is within the margin of error of reliable polls on Oct. 7, I will vote for him. I also will vote for him if Arnold has dropped or, due to some new scandal, is dropping fast as of that date.
But if, as I suspect, Arnold is close to Cruz on Oct. 7 and Tom still languishes far behind, I am not going to make the leap of faith you propose. I would if this were a primary. It isn't. I must stop Cruz.
35
posted on
09/22/2003 7:58:01 AM PDT
by
pogo101
To: tallhappy
A "silent" switch isn't practical because you'd never get that many people to switch unless they thought victory was possible. That would only happen via a public groundswell, which of course can't be private or silent.
36
posted on
09/22/2003 7:58:13 AM PDT
by
XJarhead
To: tallhappy
Just one teeny little problem - much of Arnold's support is crossover Democrats who will never, no never, vote for McClintock.
I like McClintock too, or did until he put his ego in front of his principles. It's 4th and 20 on the 25 in California. You CAN'T HAVE the touchdown. You might get the field goal. Or you can lose entirely.
.
37
posted on
09/22/2003 7:58:21 AM PDT
by
nina0113
To: Hillary's Lovely Legs
Who more closely reflects your values and opinions, McClintock, Schwarzenegger or Bustamante?
I asked because you may be one of these people.
To: tallhappy
I suspect 1/3 of Arnold voters would stay home, 1/3 would vote for McClintock because they're Republicans, and the remaining 1/3 would vote for Bustamante because Arnold's views more closely mirror Cruz' than they mirror McClintock's.
39
posted on
09/22/2003 8:00:13 AM PDT
by
NittanyLion
(Go Tom Go!)
To: XJarhead
I'm not quite sure why your post is generating the antipathy coming its way. Because it's fantasy.
It's "If I win the lottery on Wednesday, I'll never have to work again" kinda stuff.
40
posted on
09/22/2003 8:00:59 AM PDT
by
sinkspur
(Adopt a dog or a cat from a shelter! You'll save at least one life, maybe two!)
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