“Tom Can’t Win”? Wrong – Do the Math – Silent Switch Makes McClintock Governor

9-22-03

[tallhappy]

Real Clear Politics elegantly presents all the polls concerning the California Recall election at this link

It seems that just about everyone pushing Schwarzenegger as the best chance for Republicans also feel McClintock would be preferable if he had a chance to win. McClintock is thought to most reflect their values and positions on issues. But “Tom can’t win.”

A simple perusal of the poll numbers, though, belies this conventional wisdom. Do the math. If only 60% of Schwarzenegger supports decided to vote for McClintock, McClintock take the lead.

Some examples:

The vilified LA Times Poll:

Schwarzenegger - 25
Bustamante - 30
McClintock - 18

With a switch of 60% Schwarzenegger to McClintock, McClintock is at 33 and wins by 3.

In polls with Schwarzenegger polling higher the effect is stronger, e.g. SurveyUSA.

Schwarzenegger - 39
Bustamante - 29
McClintock - 16

McClintock at 39.4, wins by more than 10.

Even the ureleased newst Field poll with Bustamante higher than Schwarzenegger plays out the same:

Schwarzenegger - 26
Bustamante - 28
McClintock - 14

McClintock at 29.6 with the silent 60 switch, over the top by 1.6%.

The reason for this effect is that Bustamante support has stayed consistently low, only about 30%. This is lower than the Democrat candidate would generally poll in a general election. The dynamics of this unique recall are different. Many dems won’t vote for a candidate for recall on principle. They feel the recall is wrong hence will only vote no and will not mark a replacement candidate. Others who normally would vote for a Democrat also may be voting for Huffington, Camejo or even Schwarzenegger. This effectively splits the left/liberal vote more than usual causing Bustamantes numbers to be low.

This dynamic allows a conservative a chance to win in this election compared to a regular general election where the numbers don’t quite add up.

Conservatives are playing defense by voting for Schwarzenegger. Defense doesn’t win. The offensive strategy is for conservatives to vote for McClintock in this election where a conservative actually could win. Conservatives shouldn’t be scared off by the media drumbeat and conventional wisdom. It doesn’t apply in this election. In a normal election a Democrat would pull near 50% and always beat the 40% conservative/Republican base. But this isn’t a normal election and Bustamante isn’t pulling the numbers.

Let the race play out as it is. Schwarzenegger doesn’t have to pull out for this to work. In fact, if he did pull out this scenario wouldn’t apply.

On election day there needs to be a silent surprise. If the polls on Bustamante’s support are right, only 60% of Schwarzenegger supporters need to quietly punch the McClintock chad rather than Schwarzenegger’s to shake the world with their silent surprise.

[SteveH]

The political half life of a given political event is about 2 weeks. With that in mind, I don't think the California governorship election makes as much difference as you think outside the state.

But even if it does, we Californians have to consider our perception of what is best for California first above what would be best in California for Wisconsin. That's a side effect of the principle of self determination which I hope you are aware of from civics classes.

We will actually live here with the results, you know ;-)

[Snerfling]

A win for Cruz will crush the conservatives in the CA (GOP) and few realize it.

Believe me, McC more than realizes what he is doing. Many posters here take a logical approach, but unfortunately fail to consider some significant underlying factors that would render their analysis moot.

To wit, if you thought McC actually lived in his home district of T.O., you would logically assume that perhaps he would have some interest in maintaining a political future.

But, as it turns out, he actually has lived in Elk Grove (a suburb of Sacramento) since 1996. The central mentality of people from the central valley is an inferiority complex (for good reason). If McC was still in T.O. he probably would have a number of people trying to moderate his position.

But since he's now in the central valley, he's surrounded by liked minded individuals. That is, damn the big city RINOs in both the Bay Area and SoCal. It also provides him with an out - if he can pull 10-15% of the voters, he's got a ready made constituency for some new far-right party.

You see, threats of being banned from the GOP have no bearing on him anymore. The guy is operating on a totally different level. That's why AS's advisors are pushing him to the left to take on Busty and give up the far right to McC.

[Iris7]

You said, "Winning matters, but only when you have not abandoned principle. A win which sacrifices principles is in fact, a loss."

That is utter baloney. Tell that to the Southern Confederacy, to the Nazis, to Carthage. Or Israel. And if you do not think our situation is as serious, please reconsider.

[Iris7]

All the rest of us have to live with California and it's incredible politics. The "McClintock" faction is discrediting the Right throughout all of American politics, right now. This minute. You are squandering very scarce political capital on a quixotic extravaganza.

[PhiKapMom]

All -- Please read Snerfling's analysis in #182!

Thank you for making sense out of all of this! Been around politics a long time and could not figure out what was happening.

You have just explained it perfectly in your #182! Nice to know that I am not not going nuts trying to figure this all out! Obviously I was never going to figure it out with using common sense -- it wouldn't compute!

[SteveH]

Look at #158, which is not mine.

Yeah, it's PhiCapMom's, whose flag is set to the great state of Oklahoma. I've seen a lot of her posts but not many which seem to go very deep.

Regarding your #183, I don't understand. Principle in Nazi Germany was the White Rose group. In the South, I guess it might have been the underground railroad. Both were minorities and stayed minorities. Carthage was quite a while ago and I'm not familiar enough with the details to get it at this time. Israel-Palestine is another mess entirely and there are points for and against both sides, imho. You lost me. ;-)

[PhiKapMom]

The "McClintock" faction is discrediting the Right throughout all of American politics, right now

Believe you are right. From what I can tell talking to people here in Oklahoma, the next candidate that uses "pure," "true," or "real" conservative as a reason to elect them here in OK even in a primary, they will get someone opposing them. The powers at be are concerned that this "purist" label from the McC folks is having a negative affect even here in this State for conservatives.

In talking to people in CA where I used to live, they are even more adament that they will not support those candidates withi labels in a primary after what McC is doing.

[SteveH]

How so? I'm not familiar with how self-determination can discredit conservatives across the nation.

From my perspective, the liberal states (should I name names?) from back east have little to offer California by way of advice; they are already assimilated. Arnold is a Rockefeller Republican and political newbie who wants to perpetuate the assimilation of California into liberalism. What's so wrong with objecting to that if I'm from California and my vote is as good as anyone else's?

[NathanR]

McClintock is the best candidate. Bustamante is horrible and I do not want him to win either. But he does less long term harm than Schwarzenegger.

So you think Cruz's Mexican Nationalism will do less damage than Arnold. Cruz has been called a 'moderate', mostly his real positions have remained hidden because of local politics. Do you think he will let that bother him if he becomes governor? If you thought the Dornan/Sanchez race was corrupt, wait until Cruz becomes governor. If he becomes governor this race will indeed have been the last gasp of "White California", as one of the other Democrats has called it.

[tallhappy]

The main flaw in this analysis is that it assumes 60% of Arnold's supporters vote for McClintock, but zero percent vote for Busty.

No. I am not saying Schwarzenegger drop out.

It is based on the premise that 60% silently switch and the other forty continue to support Schwarzenegger.

I understand what you are saying and agree. If Schwarzenegger droppped out this would not work.

[SteveH]

OK, I'm here and you're there. So who wins the arguments based solely on impressions of what's going on in Calif.?

Someone in Oklahoma or someone in California?

[EggsAckley]

Wow! A whole new perspective. Elk Grove??! But he still lists Thousand Oaks. Quite a little deception, no?

Thanks for this.

[tallhappy]

But what did Arnold say -- this is throwing around innuendoes about what might happen!

It's a side issue that you brought up -- ie the gambling issue.

I told you my thoughts. I did not make it an issue.

[FairOpinion]

"McClintock reflects my values and opinions"

===

Are you sure about that? Do you prefer a Bustamante win, rather than a Republican win, which means you prefer the ENEMY to win, NOT YOUR OWN PARTY. Would you play footsie and conspire with Bustamante against a fellow Republican? Would you take money from a special interest ( Indian tribes) who are supporting Bustamante and are only giving you money, to make sure the Democrat wins? Would you be hypocritical and speak out against domestic partnership, and when you could fight it, don't bother and don't even vote on it?

I think your values may agree with what we thought McClintock stands for, but we are rapidly finding out that McClintock only stands for McClintock.

---

Tom McClintock - The conscience of a conservative?

September 19, 2003

by Bob Chandra

In recent days, Tom McClintock, the "other Republican" in California's recall race, has accepted a million dollars spent on his behalf by a left-wing special interest group. He has claimed that a Democrat victory in the recall election would be desirable, as it would better his chances in 2006. And he has joined with Democrat Cruz Bustamante in a boycott against fellow Republican, Arnold Schwarzenegger. This is the man we're supposed to believe represents the conscience of conservatism? At the end of the day, Tom McClintock's Faustian Pact with the Left has made one thing clear - it's all about Tom McClintock.

The $1 million to be spent on McClintock's behalf is by Indian gambling interests, a staunch Democratic special interest. I wrote about the possibility of left-wing special interests backing McClintock in order to divide Republicans several weeks back. Now it is a reality. The Sacramento Bee has announced that the Morongo tribe is spending $1 million to boost McClintock's candidacy and it's not because they want him to win. The money spent on McClintock is meant to split the Republican vote so their loyal servant, Democrat Cruz Bustamante, can emerge the winner. With enough left- wing money, McClintock can steal enough votes from Arnold to make that happen. Tom's win-at-any-cost mindset has him collaborating with leftist groups who want nothing more than a divided Right to throw the election to Bustamante. Does McClintock see that the Left is using him? Maybe there's a reason it's called "blind" ambition.

McClintock's partnership with the liberal special interests raises serious questions about his loyalty to the GOP. McClintock has said he puts his personal "principles" before the party. But there's a deeper reason McClintock doesn't care that his spoiler candidacy will doom Republicans in the recall race.

In a conversation with US Congressman Dan Burton, Tom McClintock said the following: he (McClintock) didn't mind it if Democrats win the gubernatorial race because it could improve his own chances in 2006. According to the Los Angeles Times, "Burton, one of the more conservative members of Congress, also said McClintock had seemed to suggest that it would be acceptable for a Democrat to hold the governor's office, because he might create a clamor for a Republican in 2006.". So that's what this is really about. If McClintock can't win, he can at least prevent the Republicans from winning so he has a better shot in 2006. Aren't we glad he's playing for our team?

McClintock is now collaborating with Cruz Bustamante to boycott the California Broadcasters Association's debate on the 24th as a means of showing up Arnold Schwarzenegger. Bustamante led the boycott charge on October 17th with McClintock soon followed his lead. When you see a Republican siding with a Democrat against a fellow Republican, you know something is wrong with the picture. Don't adjust your set- this is Tom McClintock, the self-styled conscience of conservatism.

As if things couldn't get any worse, McClintock is justifying his candidacy on a poll strategically conducted by the left-wing Los Angeles Times, which wants nothing more than to keep him in the race. That Times' poll has been debunked by Field and even invalidated by the Times' own reporting. It added 6% more self-identified conservatives than other polls and naturally gave McClintock an artificial 5% bump. But McClintock is clinging to this cooked poll, another leftist ploy, because it serves his interests.

What kind of a conservative lets left-wing interests drive his candidacy like this? The answer is a candidate who is so blind with ambition that he does not see how the Left is using him to their own ends. Thus far, McClintock has claimed he stands for principle, but it is obvious that his hopeless candidacy is based on personal ambition. It's no longer appropriate to view McClintock as merely a misguided crusader. He is a bigger threat to Republican victory on Election Day than Cruz Bustamante. Up until now, McClintock has responded to arguments for stepping aside with denial, delusion, and arrogance. Given his collaboration with the Left, Republicans must get serious with him. McClintock's "stalking horse" candidacy must come to an end.


http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/985534/posts

[Fred Mertz]

Thanks for the clarification.

[tallhappy]

How many Republicans in California are now going to give McC a seat at the table ever again? Even conservatives like Rohrbacher are starting to question the "purist" conservatives agenda.

And your point?

I think Schwarzengger, McClintock and Simon all deserve a seat other than the table after they all brought in their egos and messed things up.

[Iris7]

PhiKapMom and I are trying to talk sense to you, Moon Unit. We worry about the damage the "McClintock" faction is doing. We do not really expect to get through to you, but "hope springs eternal within the human breast," as has been said.

[PhiKapMom]

Now you can talk to me in person. I happen to own property in CA, pay taxes on it, lived there, my youngest daughter was born there, and with all of that it entitles me to my opinion whether you like it or not. But even if I didn't have CA ties, what gives you the right to say none of us should have an opinion. CA affects the rest of our States.

I don't call names like some of you McC folks like to do. Don't lie what McC has to say like you all like to make up about what Arnold says and stands for. If you are going to trash me do it direct.

I have lived all over this Country thanks to the Air Force officers that had my husband go with them to various bases and an Industry assignment in MA! I was not raised in Oklahoma, but it is my adopted state along with The University of Oklahoma as my University that I support even though I am from Ohio and Ohio State.

At one time, I planned to return to CA to live but not anymore -- I love my adopted state of Oklahoma and the town of Norman. Great people live in this State and some of the most friendly in the Country. We have a RAT Governor thanks to people like some of the McC folks that wanted to teach us a lesson with Largent so they supported the Indy candidate or stayed home which gave us a RAT Governor. That totally soured me on the "purist" conservatives forever. Largent lost by 5,000 votes so we have the "purist" to thank but then they spin it that is was Largent's fault.

Don't appreciate the "purist" movement for another reason that if you don't elect our candidate in primary, we won't support the ultimate Republican candidate. It happened in this Congressional district in 2002 and we could have ended up with a RAT Congressman no thanks to the "purist" who got mad that another conservative won in the primary and basically stayed home. Don't "purist" ever take responsibility for costing elections with their narrow minded attitudes?

Next time you decide to trash me for not being very deep, you should read what I have to say.

[PhiKapMom]

Personally I was for Issa!

[tallhappy]

Yes. the 182 post is a very good analysis.

That's what people don;t understand. The "TomBots" and others are not going to vote for Schwarzenegger and are not scared.

Much of it comes from the ineffectiveness of the CA Republicans. Who would be scared of being banished from them?

In 1994 they won legislature yet couldn't even keep it together to elect their own speaker.

Schwarzenegger is just the latest in a succession of errors.

The blame does not go to either the conservative or the liberal wings but to both.