“Tom Can’t Win”? Wrong – Do the Math – Silent Switch Makes McClintock Governor

9-22-03

[tallhappy]

Real Clear Politics elegantly presents all the polls concerning the California Recall election at this link

It seems that just about everyone pushing Schwarzenegger as the best chance for Republicans also feel McClintock would be preferable if he had a chance to win. McClintock is thought to most reflect their values and positions on issues. But “Tom can’t win.”

A simple perusal of the poll numbers, though, belies this conventional wisdom. Do the math. If only 60% of Schwarzenegger supports decided to vote for McClintock, McClintock take the lead.

Some examples:

The vilified LA Times Poll:

Schwarzenegger - 25
Bustamante - 30
McClintock - 18

With a switch of 60% Schwarzenegger to McClintock, McClintock is at 33 and wins by 3.

In polls with Schwarzenegger polling higher the effect is stronger, e.g. SurveyUSA.

Schwarzenegger - 39
Bustamante - 29
McClintock - 16

McClintock at 39.4, wins by more than 10.

Even the ureleased newst Field poll with Bustamante higher than Schwarzenegger plays out the same:

Schwarzenegger - 26
Bustamante - 28
McClintock - 14

McClintock at 29.6 with the silent 60 switch, over the top by 1.6%.

The reason for this effect is that Bustamante support has stayed consistently low, only about 30%. This is lower than the Democrat candidate would generally poll in a general election. The dynamics of this unique recall are different. Many dems won’t vote for a candidate for recall on principle. They feel the recall is wrong hence will only vote no and will not mark a replacement candidate. Others who normally would vote for a Democrat also may be voting for Huffington, Camejo or even Schwarzenegger. This effectively splits the left/liberal vote more than usual causing Bustamantes numbers to be low.

This dynamic allows a conservative a chance to win in this election compared to a regular general election where the numbers don’t quite add up.

Conservatives are playing defense by voting for Schwarzenegger. Defense doesn’t win. The offensive strategy is for conservatives to vote for McClintock in this election where a conservative actually could win. Conservatives shouldn’t be scared off by the media drumbeat and conventional wisdom. It doesn’t apply in this election. In a normal election a Democrat would pull near 50% and always beat the 40% conservative/Republican base. But this isn’t a normal election and Bustamante isn’t pulling the numbers.

Let the race play out as it is. Schwarzenegger doesn’t have to pull out for this to work. In fact, if he did pull out this scenario wouldn’t apply.

On election day there needs to be a silent surprise. If the polls on Bustamante’s support are right, only 60% of Schwarzenegger supporters need to quietly punch the McClintock chad rather than Schwarzenegger’s to shake the world with their silent surprise.

[tallhappy]

Cruz is better than Arnold!

No. Didn't say that.

I said long term damage is greater if Schwarzenegger is elected.

I am sure Schwarzenegger would do a better immediate job on certain issues.

This has nothing to do with ability or competence but is about the direction taken in our nation and in the Republican party.

[EggsAckley]

I'm assuming this was meant for tallhappy........

~</;o)

[PhiKapMom]

But what did Arnold say -- this is throwing around innuendoes about what might happen!

This is where I am really disappointed at what I am seeing out of some conservatives -- actually making up what might/could happen when there are plenty of issues out there to talk about.

I don't understand the reasoning except to tank a fellow Republican but instead it has made McC look nasty! Either McC is calling the shots or he is getting bad advice. He should have reached out to the others who dropped from the race to unite with him but instead he went on to attack a fellow Republican instead of Cruz.

Now you have the conservatives in the CA delegation firmly in Arnold's corner -- why don't you ask yourself why? I just heard Rohrbacher discuss the "purist" who are beating their chest without a chance a to win. I agree with him after being on here.

McC missed a real opportunity to make a difference by his campaign tactics and I find that sad!

[Dan from Michigan]

And I will hold the likes of you responsible Happy Tall one

It's not his fault. Arnold didn't EARN his vote. I thought republicans did not support entitlements.

[PhiKapMom]

Thanks -- wrong person!

[Fred Mertz]

The main flaw in this analysis is that it assumes 60% of Arnold's supporters vote for McClintock, but zero percent vote for Busty.

[b9]

And Clinton makes five.

[My2Cents]

Why assume that Arnold's supporters would automatically switch to McClintock? McC has proven that while good on the issues, he's a lackluster nothing who doesn't have the leadership qualities to be a decent Governor.

[Tamzee]

ROFL!!!

In that case, though, Tom is REALLY sunk... I bet the Wiccans are hoarding all the eye-of-newt for Cruz ;-)

[PhiKapMom]

Do you understand what a Cruz victory is really going to do to the Conservative movement in California? Think about it -- Arnold loses and Cruz is elected for one reason -- McClintock, a conservative, played the role of spoiler.

How many Republicans in California are now going to give McC a seat at the table ever again? Even conservatives like Rohrbacher are starting to question the "purist" conservatives agenda.

You folks in the McC camp alone will be responsible for the demise of conservatism in CA if Cruz is elected. Arnold is a concensus builder and will reach out which CA needs. With a Republican in the Governor's Chair, it should make it easier to get more Republicans elected when the people of California see that Arnold is helping fix the CA economy so why not elect people to help him.

Think some of you have totally misjudged what CA is today versus when Pres Reagan was Governor. A win for Cruz will crush the conservatives in the CA Republican Party and the Republican conservatives in office today except for McC and a few realize it. Shame more of you don't!

[Iris7]

I was thinking of "detrimental to California" in the sense that you used it in your sentence. I was thinking of the results of this election, being detrimental to what you love, and to Feinstein et al. agreeing with that statement, i.e., that the results would be detrimental to what you love. I saw an implied "detrimental to (the) California (that I love)" in your statement. I should have been more explicit.

[Tamzee]

"What are you talking about?" God replies....
""I sent you two boats and a helicopter!"

***

I love the analogy, this very same one has crossed my mind so often these last few weeks :-)

[BunnySlippers]

I think Tom should explain some of his actions lately before any conservative should vote for him. In the meantime, I'm voting for Arnold.

[BunnySlippers]

The main flaw in this analysis is that it assumes 60% of Arnold's supporters vote for McClintock, but zero percent vote for Busty.

BINGO! This seems to be the main flaw that all TomBots employ when say when they think Tom has a chance.

[NathanR]

What strategis mistakes? I am sure that Arnold has made many but this wasn't one: Arnold is now three days from a debate he undoubtedly has hoped to avoid at all costs. I can imagine his advisors assuring him early in the campaign that he would never be placed in this position.

Arnold decided early he could only do one debate, and chose the one which would give the most impact. The one he chose is not as scripted as everyone thinks, since other candidates can ask questions and so on.

[SteveH]

Winning matters, but only when you have not abandoned principle. A win which sacrifices principles is in fact, a loss.

[Iris7]

Look at #158, which is not mine.

What the "McClintock" faction is doing is further marginalizing the Right, both in California, nationally, and in Wisconsin. If Bustamante wins because the Right acts as spoiler in California, the Right will be excluded from politics to an even greater extent than we have seen so far. This would be a serious defeat for all of us. This "McClintock" business plays right into the hand of the Left. This is so completely obvious it makes one wonder about the "McClintock" factions motives and/or sanity. Hyperbole aside, it makes me wonder about their good faith.

[BaBaStooey]

An intriguing argument.

However, factor for some or all of the remaining 40% going to Bustamante.....I guess.

The numbers would look different, then

[SteveH]

What strategis mistakes? I am sure that Arnold has made many but this wasn't one:

I mean, a debate with Tom on stage to permit apples to apples comparison by the voting public. And that I think it likely that Arnold's handlers had not forecast this possibility in advance during the early planning stages of the Arnold campaign. Now they're stuck.

[Iris7]

I said "look at post #158" but am wrong, please see post #170.