New California Field Poll leaked

Field Poll | September 20, 2003 | Field Poll

[carbon14]

Recall (yes)...53%

Bustamante.....28% Schwarzenegger.26% MadClintock....14%

For comparison (Field Poll August 18) Bustamante.....25% Schwarzenegger.22% MadClintock.....9% Simon...........8% Ueberroth.......5% Huffington......2%

[BlueNgold]

I have never argued against anything you said. However on election day, in any election not just this one, I try to support a candidate whom my vote may help elect. Sometimes we are left with 2 choices and we vote for the Bob Doles and we walk down to a local pub and try not to get too drunk to drive home as we watch the results come in - and sometimes we have a chance to choose a winner ... but sometimes that potential winner may not be our first choice, but he/she offers a better choice than a leading alternative. Arnold offers that 'next best' choice ... and if nothing else offers an opportunity to defeat Davis and C.B. and stop at least SOME of the bleeding. I wish McC could win, but he can't, and I don't want to make yet another trip to the pub on election night Oct 7.

[thoughtomator]

The convention poll showed Tom had half the Republican vote. And comparing this poll with the one done by the same people earlier shows McClintock going from 9 to 14 percent.

Any way you try to spin it, it still shows a 56% gain in support, and a greater gain in the total number of supporters than any other candidate.

The trends all favor Tom, and we haven't even seen the Dems slime (R)nold yet. It's not the poll today that matters, but the one on Oct. 7. And if we consider that the general trend in polling results shows a more liberal electorate than actual election results, McClintock stands a good chance of walking away the winner.

[=Intervention=]

"ARNOLD = Statewide media coverage, National media coverage, and legislature HAVING to do something or risk being exposed on television as not responding to a problem the media brought to CA and the Nation's attention.

GET IT???"

Yes. Your point is loud and clear. We should elect a star who doesn't share our principle and who will drag the party left because the media will cover him more than they would an ordinary governor.

So you want to sell out principle to atone for the lack of journalism skills of California media people? That has got to be the silliest reason to vote for anyone that I have ever heard.

[Seeking the truth]

No I am saying that online polls, even FR polls, are far from scientific and offer, at best, anecdotal evidence of support levels on an issue

Obviously, however, even so called "scientific polls" conducted in classical fashion outside of the internet, are wrong very frequently.

Case in point. Last week, in Alabama, all the polls showed the tax increase to be basically a tossup.

Result: Tax increase shot down by a very comfortable margin - outside the margin of error. Oh yes, it was a very scientific poll and not an online one to boot!

Also, remember, your premise is that McClintock has no chance of winning and you have based this on all the polls that you have read, which means you believe those polls but not the one on FR.

[thoughtomator]

If that's your highest priority, vote 'no' on recall. Then Davis will eat him alive, and that will be the end of MEChAman for a good long time.

[South40]

However, I do not like the "MadClintock" ad hominem. He is a good man and we need him. Maybe we can coax Arnold to appoint him to the California Supreme Court.

He's mad alright. You do know he's willing to let bustamante become California's next governor because he (Tom) thinks it will help his chances of getting elected in 2006.

So he's willing to sacrifice California to a racist mexican for the next three years because he thinks it will boost his career.

Mad is a mild description but 100% accurate.

[BonnieJ]

How many will vote for the "other" candidates? Certainly they will get some votes and there are a lot of them!

[South40]

And keep things status quo? I think not. Davis deserved to have his sorry a$$ tossed out long before he pandered to the ILLEGALS and tripled the car tax. He deserves it even more now.

[Dave S]

The recall was STRUCK DOWN by a Federal court. THERE IS NO RECALL!

You are wrong. The entire court is taking up the case on Monday. They cant let the recall be moved because LA, where the problem is predominantly, has already said they wont even be ready with the new machines in March. If that is the case, then there is just as much reason to postpone the Democratic Presidential Primary scheduled for that date as the Recall. Do you think this liberal court wants to screw with the Presidential Primary. I dont think so. A Dem gets elected and they might be Supreme Court material.

[Hoverbug]

Republicans should get behind Arnold Tom for when you put every one's votes together, he can beat Large Breasts hands down. Let's not blow it, people.

Hb

[Old Sarge]

read and understand more than a 10 sec sound bite from CNN ...

No need to get insulting...

[thoughtomator]

He deserves it, sure, but are you willing to do so if what you end up with is even worse? If you, and others who think similarly, were to back Tom McClintock, he would be far and away in the lead in this race, and we would all get what we want - power; guided by principle.

[Reagan Man]

If on election day, Bob Dole was running, I'd support your decision top vote for him. Dole wasn't perfect, but at least he was moderate Republican. Arnold is a political liberal.

We'll have to agree to disagree, but I don't believe Arnold is the right choice and right man for the job. I was open to his candidacy a month ago, but in that time period he has spit on conservatives and abused his privileged status of pop cult icon.

[BonnieJ]

Yes, McClintock is a good man and I sure hope his career isn't ruined by this election as so many predict. He isn't a persuasive leader but he certainly knows California government and the budget and all the other details gained from 20+ years. He would be an asset to Gov. Schwarzenegger if he wins and if Tom McC can get past his resentment and arrogance toward him and actually work with him for progress and reform!

[Seeking the truth]

No, you still don't get it. My citation of the FR polls has nothing to do with the public at large; rendering your Keyes/Buchanan comparison nonsequitous.

The fact of the matter is that more Freepers support McClintock than Ahnold and the FR polls show that.

I have no idea what the first poll showed as they are not numbered. I do know that everyone I've see has shown McClintock in the lead.

If you are saying that the first poll showed Ahnold in the lead, I'll take your Freeper word for it as I did not see it.

However, I would be concerned if Ahnold, subsequent to that first poll, has lost the lead.

That shows a loss of momemtum - not a good thing in a campaign. In fact, the new poll today shows Ahnold losing some mo also.

I don't understand why Ahnold is not in the 60%+ area with all the Larry King, Ophra, MSNBC touting going on. All that charisma and star power and he can't put Bustamente or McClintock away.

Hmmm....wonder why?

[=Intervention=]

Like I posted before, I'm really starting to believe that most FReepers live in a dream world. Have you ever done any public speaking or organized a road show? Have you ever written a (non-self) published book? Do you think you just set these things up and the money starts to flow?"

Yes, I have done public speaking, and no I don't think that these things just set themselves up. Nowhere in my statement are any assumptions that this would magically happen. You extrapolate from your difficulties to presume I am ignorant. Try again.

McC is a duffer who has spent his entire working life in public office. Mark my words, this episode and the resulting recriminations will ultimately make your favorite martyr a sad footnote."

Fortunately, I don't live in the same cynical and dingy rathole reality you seem to live in, nor would I see any reason to move there. It's the lack of vision thing all over again. Even if he was a martyr, the truth is spread through the testimony of martyrs.

[SteveH]

If McC doesn't think this will personally effect him when AS is firmly esconced in the governor's seat, he is sadly mistaken. The GOP will drive him out of his seat (by backing a different candidate from T.O. and pumping in the money) and never let him hold any other partisan office.

The state Republican party is officially neutral. Even if Arnold wins, he has to win the support of every Republican lawmaker (if his win is to signify anything like what Arnold supporters are projecting now), including McClintock in the Senate.

Also Arnold has to satisfy all the other Republican lawmakers who held their noses and endorsed him.

Unless you are suggesting Arnold will flip once in office... ;-)

[Republic If You Can Keep It]

He is an elected Republican legislator

Translation: no executive experience

[Dave S]

Are you seriously saying that FR/Jim Rob rigged the FR polls?

A tiny fraction of the Freepers have bothered to vote. So you have 51% of an even smaller percentage of activists. Even you must know that activists represent a small part of the Republican party.

[SteveH]

I don't understand why Ahnold is not in the 60%+ area with all the Larry King, Ophra, MSNBC touting going on. All that charisma and star power and he can't put Bustamente or McClintock away.

Hmmm....wonder why?

My own pet theory is that liberals can sniff an insincere politician almost as well as a conservative can.

The gravity of the financial situation here begs for someone, either conservative or liberal, who presents an honest, fiscally conservative presence in the campaign.