Posted on 09/18/2003 4:03:48 PM PDT by Mini-14
About 150,000 IT positions were lost in 2001 and 2002
SEPTEMBER 17, 2003
The study, which was presented at a congressional forum today by the Washington-based nonprofit group Commission on Professionals in Science and Technology (CPST), affirms what IT managers have seen in response to help-wanted ads. "I'm sure the number is 6% or higher," said Michael Russo, a data center manager at Wyeth, a Madison, N.J.-based pharmaceuticals giant.
A recent third-shift job in the company's operational data center drew 168 applicants. "There are a lot of people who are out of work," Russo said.
Randy Rosenthal, manager of computer operations at Southwest Securities Group Inc. in Dallas, has seen the same trend: highly qualified people with multiple degrees applying for jobs IT managers once had trouble filling. "That tells me that 6% has hit the IT area pretty hard," he said.
About 150,000 IT positions were lost in 2001 and 2002, about two-thirds of them in programming, the report said.
Two years ago, Phoenix-based water and electric utility Salt River Project had an open position for an operations analyst and received about 15 applications; last year, it posted a similar position and had 50 applicants. This year the 800,000-customer utility has a hiring freeze, said operations manager Dewayne Nelsen.
There was a sense of grim resignation about the latest report among some IT managers at a conference held here by AFCOM, an Orange, Calif.-based data center managers user group.
Several IT managers, some requesting that their names not be used, told of data center consolidations that led to layoffs or offshore plans. For the future, automation improvements and the development of "self-healing" applications will also hurt some IT career paths. The career advice from one IT manager was to avoid the technical aspects of the profession and focus more on IT management training.
IT unemployment rates were as low as 1.2% in 1997, shooting up to 4.3% in 2002.
But the overall number of IT jobs has seen remarkable growth, tripling in the past 20 years, according to the CPST, which conducts labor force and educational research for a range of scientific organizations and companies. The IT labor force grew from 719,000 jobs in 1983 to 2.5 million at its peak in 2000.
With the growth of IT came an increasing reliance upon foreign workers. This increase was facilitated by legislation expanding the use of H-1B visas, which allow skilled foreign workers to take jobs in the U.S. for up to six years. A cap of 195,000 on the number of visas that can be issued has been in place for each of the past three years, but the cap will drop to 65,000 on Oct. 1. L-1 visas, which allow companies to transfer foreign employees into the U.S., have tripled in use.
The report, sponsored by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation in New York and the United Engineering Foundation, an umbrella organization for engineering groups, draws no firm conclusion on the offshore outsourcing trend. But it recognizes predictions made by analyst firms, including Gartner Inc., which in July estimated that 10% of all U.S. professional jobs in IT services companies would be transferred overseas, along with 5% of IT positions in other businesses.
Long term, the report says more research is needed on the effects of offshore outsourcing and the workforce issues raised by it: "Can the U.S. continue to be a prime market for the rest of the world if it is a stronghold for neither manufacturing nor technical services?" the report asks. "What are the long-run implications of these trends for American standards of living?"
The CPST report concludes that while the job market for IT professionals has weakened, it remains sizable.
"For the near run, normal turnover alone will generate opportunities for people who are determined to work in the field," the report said. "The long-run outlook is more problematic. The United States does not lack, either now or in the foreseeable future, sufficient numbers of capable people who would like to work in IT. But those people may not be willing to conclude that long-run demands for their services will be good enough to support IT as a sensible career choice."
It's almost impossible to compare unemployment statistics now with those pre-Great Society when all the many welfare programs began being put into place. Unemployment during the Great Depression was only something like 20% but there weren't people laying around collecting SSI, General Assistance, Food Stamps and all the many other programs that didn't exist. Now unemployment figures only show those unemployed who actually are looking for jobs ----- they don't count the total unemployed.
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True, but the nature of most IT jobs produces dead-end specialists. The only way to keep from being pigeon-holed was to keep switching jobs and nobody can do that now.
Right now I may have a seemingly stable IT job, but I don't count on having it forever, especially since I am the only pale male left (with the commensurate salary.)
Everyone around me is fresh off the boat and works for magic beans.
This probably won't be an issue this election, but sooner or later the democrats are going to figure out this demographic and start making promises.
I suspect you are right. I am only half-time employed in IT, fortunately doing other things at the same time.
I disagree. I have had the same employer for 25 years, but my job keeps changing. In some cases, I took on a new job in addition to my regular tasks and waited for someone to notice. I still love learning new things and jump at the chance.
However, I have worked with many people (who didn't survive the environment) who would say "Hey I was hired to do one thing and only one thing for 40 hours a week. Don't even suggest I do anything else." If I had that attitude, I would still be coding cobol, instead I am coding PHP.
heh. I have done all those things, but I hate printers, especially Genicoms, they are evil incarnate.
Yes indeed it would be. Except anyone who hears that knows that it's not credible: presidents have nothing to do with the economy.
Point 2: Clinton did indeed profit greatly from companies which benefited from the tech bubble. So did conservatives and everybody in betweeen.
He knew that if he made deals, EO's and promoted legislation both here and abroad which would FURTHER profit these companies, he, Clinton, would profit even more from the donations of those grateful companies. This is realy silly: if economy goes up, most people benefit. That's what we are supposed to do. Except he has hardly anythig to do with that.
Clinton and his good pold boy network DID conciously meddle in the economy How? I'm surprised I had to explain that.
I am also suprised that you do not know that administration has not means of influencing economy.
I agree with what you said. Except presidents may initiate this legislation and nothing more: it becomes law only if it passes in Congress.
It is (i) Congress that influences the economy through expenditures and taxation (fiscal measures) and (ii) the Federal Reserve (monetary policy).
None of it belongs to presidents, whether Democratic of Republican.
No, it would not.
I'm perfectly willing to give Clinton the credit for what happened with the stock market You should not: he has nothing to do with that.
if he will admit that it was a very BAD, dishonest thing that was happening. How was it dishonest?
If I sell my neighbor a car knowing that it has a cracked head, and I don't tell him, and he goes away thinking he has a good car, I have stolen from him. When it breaks, he has a legitimate claim against me, and in a perfect world where things could be proven, I could go to jail. YOu are correct, of course, except this has nothing to do with the stock prices.
Stock prices reflect optimism of the public. The public felt very optimistic about the future. There were reasons for that: jobs were plentiful, and the American companies had huge profts for several years in arrow. They should've realized that this was abnormal and will not last long (this used to be taught by parents in this country and passed from generaton to generation -- until that "Greatest" generation that won WWII; since then an everage Joe and Jane jas no concept of yesterday and wants tomorrow today.)
This and purely human nature led peple to believe that the party will continue. If one believes that, it is indeed rational to buy stocks. Joe and Jane started to trade stocks via Internet --- and made a lot of money. Nobody complained. Then the realization hit that it's over, and some lost money. Now they were looking for guilty parties --- "the fat cats" on Wall Street, corporate management, president --- anybody but themselves.
Stock prices reflect the beliefs of the buyers and sellers about the future. Presidents have very little to do with that: YOUR view of the president contributes to YOUR optimism about the future and YOUR desire to buy stocks. But whether you have a job matters infinitely more.
And, you don't have to agree with me: "lying" CEOs cannot creaet a bubble. Period.
It is true that the morality in our culture has declined. But that has been happenning for many generations. CEOs rise from our midst, and it is natural that the level of their integrity has declined as well.
Until the turn of the XX century, a mere handshake between two brokers on NYSE was sufficient -- no records and yet nobody ever reneged. This no longer works on exchanges because the public no longer obides by Judeo-Christian values. In that sense, Europe is completely gone (they refuse even to acknowledge in their constitution the role of Christianity in the history of Europe). We are more healthy still but are moving in the same direction. Attributing this to Clinton is also false. In fact, one could argue that precisely because morals were no longer important for the public it elected and kept him in office.
Whatever you think of the second part, bubbles are created by the masses, not a few individuals.
LOL LOL LOL! Yeah, it's ridiculous. I got into the field on that kind of scam - got tired of working in slave pits but didn't have the patience for more school, so I bravo sierra'ed my way into IT. Now I've got a few years' real experience, and I'm sitting pretty at a consulting company that is actually expanding its market share.
Just goes to show that education is fine, but in Americs, Bravo Sierra can get you much, much farther.
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