Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[amom]

Whow. Awsome. Thanks

[Corin Stormhands]

highest gust so far is 98 mph?

You know rw, I saw some of your comments last night. If you want to be an idiot go do it somewhere else.

People will die in this storm. Maybe my family and me. I'm sorry it ain't bad enough to feed your apparent need for the gruesome.

But give it a rest.

[1Old Pro]

Does the yellow indicate that the worst is still over the ocean?

[Woodstock]

Good, I'm not the only one saying "CRAP."

[rwfromkansas]

just posting the facts. If you don't like it, that's your problem.

And how is it snotty to qualify it by saying that 98 mph will rip up the mobile home parks?

[rwfromkansas]

But, I will not get in an argument with you.

[Woodstock]

My goodness. Where do you live?

[Gabz]

My SIL in Dover just called to check on us.

They are going into the second phase of the state of emergency in Delaware.

As of 2pm tickets will begin to be issued for people on the roads. They didn't do it earlier because of the continuing evactuations.

Any one who knows me, knows I hate over-regulation by government (especially in Delaware) but I find this a good thing.

It became necessary to add that to the State of Emergency law following the ice storms of 1993 when there were so many idiots on the roads that emergency personnel were having difficulty doing their job.

It actually worked well during the February Blizzard - because it kept most people OFF the road where they belonged.

[Woodstock]

KANSAS .... nothing else to say except LAND LOCKED!

[Slip18]

Get to a safe place in your home. We don't need injuries to FReepers out there. Good luck to you!

[rwfromkansas]

I am just pointing out how seriously hyped the storm was.

You apparently have a problem with that.

You won't die...not even a slight chance.

[steveegg]

Ouch.

[xsmommy]

since you were nice enough to backtrack yesterday, let me just point out to you that it serves no purpose, and just gets people's backs up, to hear people, like you, saying ONLY 98 mph....? can you see that? no one is arguing the facts with you, they are just reacting to the supercilious tone of disdain for 98 mph winds. get it?

[rwfromkansas]

The dark blue is wind on the same level as the yellow. The yellow means there is still some nasty stuff to come unfortunately.

[steveegg]

Wow.

[Woodstock]

Thank you for the vote of confidence. I wonder about the builder of this home whenever we heavy rain - let alone wind. It will be an interesting night. Towels & Buckets standing by....

[1Old Pro]

Does anyone know if the storm track over the next 1-2 days has been updated or changed?

[Slip18]

Go do some homework. There's a discussion going on here that doesn't involve you.

[Howlin]

I was just looking for that.

Winds picking up here; my deck is already covered with "selective" pruning!

[Dog]

But, I will not get in an argument with you.

Promise?