Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[Mad Dawgg]

"Whoa; that was a wicked overwash over in Kitty Hawk on TWC just now."

Could you translate that into English for us Land lubbers?

[CobaltBlue]

I never thought about the winds being stronger higher up - we're 400 ft above sea level, and the tallest oaks (the ones I am worried about) are 80-100 ft tall. Wonder if that's enough of a height differential from sea level to make a difference. I hope not.

[Howlin]

Jackie, I'm not going to try to fool you, he's right in the middle of it, but he will be fine. Don't let all this chatter from us upset you; the winds are bad, but if he's inside, he'll be fine. Those people down in Little Washington have been going through this longer than you and I have been alive.


And for what it's worth, I am not able to get my niece or nephew on the cell phones down in Wilmington.

[mykdsmom]

You can say that again. I can't believe how much the wind and rain have picked up in the past 30 min. Raining sideways here.

Thank God my son found our little stray kitten that has adopted us and brought her in the garage. She looked like a drowned rat.

MKM

[iceskater]

Just heard DC Metro shut down as of 11am.

[ShakeNJake]

I appreciate you and Coastie keeping us updated about the local conditions in Portsmouth. Very important to me with family on the ground there.

My sister is a nurse at Sentarra in Norfolk. She started her shift early this morning before they closed the bridges and tunnels to traffic. Yesterday, they told her to bring her stuff with her because she would probably be stuck there for awhile since the next shift wouldn't be able to get to work, and her shift wouldn't be able to leave.

[steveegg]

Huge waves going over a road (with an SUV driving down it) in Kitty Hawk, NC was shown by The Weather Channel about 10-15 minutes ago.

[Howlin]

Carolina closes at 2 PM.

[iceskater]

Sounds like standard procedures for hospitals for bad weather events. Happens during snow/ice around here too.

[blam]

Good morning. Looks like everyone is surviving okay. Do we have any FReepers who are cut-off because of power outages?

[Jackie-O]

He has been down there for several years had has been thru this many times. He was packing it up to head west. Cell phone down. I'm sure I will hear from him tonight.
I just get that anxious feeling everytime one of these suckers blows into his part of the country. :0(

[Howlin]

Is it cold up there?

[Gabz]

Stay safe.

[steveegg]

How saturated is the ground? If it's anything like where Gabz is, pray that when the trees come down, they don't land on you, yours, or the house/car.

[steveegg]

Stay safe, Jim.

[Howlin]

My niece is locked down at the hospital in Wilmington!

[iceskater]

The ground is saturated throughout Virginia. Been that way for months now.

[Hatteras]

"Could you translate that into English for us Land lubbers?"

Sort of like this, only probably a little more intense:

[dennis1x]

people in texas and oklahoma call a storm with 85kt winds a spring shower...!!

[Howlin]

I know what you mean. What is it about guys that they won't CALL??????????