Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[Calpernia]

Hiya Meg.

[Fred Mertz]

Make your peace. Good luck.

[Howlin]

What the hell are you talking about, Fred?

[dennis1x]

looking like Isabel may spin down to borderline cat 1/trop storm based on latest from NHC of 80-85mph sustained winds currently and still no deep core convection to speak of. big key to watch for now is still the satellite shots.....a flare up of colder cloudtops could lead to rapid strengthening....without it the "engine" of the hurricane will continue to be starved and weakening proceeds.

also...with current make up of the storm...the heaviest rains may actually be found in the feeder bands..there is not much in the way of heavy rains in the core of the storm.

[Sam Cree]

Ok, I'm going to check that out tomorrow, thanks. Hitting the sack now.

Good luck to those at risk.

[MEG33]

Weather junkie,here!Got some coffee and maybe a slice of pie?

[Palladin]

Good one!

Bumping it up.

[Sam Cree]

Yeah, I like weather alot, too.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Coffee's on! (Sorry, no pie)

[Calpernia]

ROFL!!! Good one.

[Calpernia]

Keylime coming up!

[steveegg]

Very interesting (though I don't trust carbon dating for anything beyond about 1500 years).

[slimer]

LOL! That's a real hoot!

[JennysCool]

Hah! Simply beautiful!

[amom]

5 minute refresh now. The Avalonpier site now has this message.

"We've Crashed the Servers!! Due to Hurricane Isabel, the servers could not keep up with demand. The picture now will only update every 5 minutes. Sorry for the inconvenience."

Stay safe folks.

[DoughtyOne]

So this Hurricane has been officially renamed by an act of the Senate to be called, "Hurricane George Bush's Fault". LOL It shall subsequently be refered to as such in perpetuity. Count on it!

LOL - Cute!

[Gabz]

I still have a lead on some Reynolds at a really cheap price....... LOL

Sheesh - I knew there was something on the list at the store today beside apples and peaches I needed to get.

[MEG33]

Keylime is being served...Yumm!

[Gabz]

I'll be checking in as long as I have power!!!!

[God luvs America]

Sheeeeeet; we got you beat here in New York.....we've got Hitlery Clinton, the worst disaster known to mankind!