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Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"
NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

Posted on 09/17/2003 8:14:30 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; US: North Carolina; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: hurricane; hurricaneisabel; isabel; landfall
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To: NautiNurse
"a massive number of potholed one-way streets"

...with low railroad bridges that take the tops off of unwary moving vans! ;-)

401 posted on 09/18/2003 6:10:44 AM PDT by Hatteras (where the Gulf Stream meets the Labrador Current...)
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To: Hatteras
...and stoplights near train tracks.
402 posted on 09/18/2003 6:12:00 AM PDT by Overtaxed (Back in Kansas)
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To: Hatteras
I forgot about those! Have seen a good number of big trucks with their tops peeled back like cans of tuna there. Thanks for the memory!
403 posted on 09/18/2003 6:14:52 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: Hatteras
Yeah, they'll be fine. Great news that the winds continue to decline. Even if they happen to catch the worst of the storm, 100 mph is manageable down there. Easy to say 100 mph is no big deal from the comfort of my den, I know, but there's a big difference between, say, 100 and 120 mph, remembering that wind pressure on a structure increases as the square of the increase in wind speed. Trees, of course, would be a problem, but that's not much of a factor there.
404 posted on 09/18/2003 6:15:35 AM PDT by southernnorthcarolina (Only YOU can prevent TWC alarmism.)
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To: My Favorite Headache
Well, a little further south, Wrightsville Beach looks almost kinda pleasant this morning... Blockade Runner Beach Cam
405 posted on 09/18/2003 6:15:49 AM PDT by Hatteras (where the Gulf Stream meets the Labrador Current...)
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To: Gabz
FOX is reporting that the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel has just been closed. I expect the Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel will be closed next and the Monitor Merrimack Bridge Tunnel and the Downtown and Midtown tunnels soon too. That leaves only one way out of town and that will probably be flooded soon. I hope that anyone who hasn't left yet is safe where they are.
406 posted on 09/18/2003 6:19:35 AM PDT by pgkdan
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To: pgkdan
I understand they shut the bridge/tunnel down when winds reach 50kt
407 posted on 09/18/2003 6:22:18 AM PDT by Gabz (anti-smokers - personification of everything wrong in this country.)
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To: NautiNurse
"Have seen a good number of big trucks with their tops peeled back like cans of tuna there."

The bridge over Gregson catches, on average, about one per week.

Actually, they put up a steel beam about 10 feet in front of it at the same height to stop the trucks from actually making contact with the bridge itself. They painted the beam with yellow and black stripes and big warning signs and a sensor that sets off flashing yellow warning lights if it detects an oversized vehicle approaching. It took less than 8 hours before a truck slammed into the steel beam and tore up their nice fresh paint and new warning sign!

408 posted on 09/18/2003 6:24:18 AM PDT by Hatteras (where the Gulf Stream meets the Labrador Current...)
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To: Gabz
I have a friend in Newport News VA, i was on the phone with him, and the police were going around with a loud speaker telling all to evacuate.....
Jan
409 posted on 09/18/2003 6:27:01 AM PDT by ZAKJAN
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To: pgkdan
You're right about the pines...they'll bend almost all the way over before snapping, but my big concern is having the damned things come out of the ground, roots and all. We'll see.

That's my big concern, too. The ground is so saturated already from all the rain we've been having that I really expect an awful lot of trees to being uprooted.
It's raining in Richmond now. The wind is starting to gust a bit. We have a long way to go yet, though.

410 posted on 09/18/2003 6:27:50 AM PDT by iceskater
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To: Miss Marple
OMG, that is too funny. Thanks so much for posting it!
411 posted on 09/18/2003 6:28:14 AM PDT by Aggie Mama
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To: iceskater
It was big news at 10:00 last night when a big tree was blown over onto a house near Lake Smith. Big news because the winds were only 15-20 mph! This is a pretty lousy omen IMHO.
412 posted on 09/18/2003 6:32:52 AM PDT by pgkdan
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To: Gabz
That's what I understand as well. The Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel is pretty unprotected out there in the bay so they've probably recorded big winds before anyone else.
413 posted on 09/18/2003 6:34:37 AM PDT by pgkdan
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To: Gabz; NautiNurse; NCjim
Good morning, everybody! Is everybody accounted for??
414 posted on 09/18/2003 6:35:09 AM PDT by Howlin
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To: NCjim
In all the years I lived in Durm, I had very few reasons to go downtown (except Bulls games, jury duty, incorporating the business). Every single time I went downtown, I got fouled up in the loop and those blasted one way streets.

Worst of all, one wrong turn, and a girl will find herself in some very dangerous 'hoods.

415 posted on 09/18/2003 6:35:16 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: ZAKJAN
Get this, one of my town's Reporterettes is on location at VA beach. She keeps hyping over and over, "We're expecting a 20-30' storm surge"
416 posted on 09/18/2003 6:37:46 AM PDT by Rebelbase
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To: Constitution Day
Are you working the whole day??
417 posted on 09/18/2003 6:37:51 AM PDT by Howlin
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To: NautiNurse
Fox reporting from Virginia Beach. Wind picking up. Sustained of 30 mph, gusts 40-50mph. Surge is now about 50 yeards away...was 200. Sand blowing even though it's raining. 25,000 people have already lost power. Several pumping stations have already lost power and they have sent crews to get them on generators.
418 posted on 09/18/2003 6:38:35 AM PDT by Miss Marple
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To: Howlin
g'mornin Howlin!
419 posted on 09/18/2003 6:38:49 AM PDT by glock rocks (prayers for family and friends in Isabel's path)
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To: Miss Marple
did you see jeff goldblatt's legs and the surf shoes he has on? LOL!
420 posted on 09/18/2003 6:39:30 AM PDT by xsmommy
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