Posted on 09/17/2003 8:14:30 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache
Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003
...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.
All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.
An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.
Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.
There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Avila
...Isabel continues toward the Outer Banks...winds decrease slightly... a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect north of Chincoteague to Moriches Inlet New York...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac. At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 33.7 north...longitude 75.2 west or about 110 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina. This is also about 95 miles southeast of Cape Lookout North Carolina. Isabel is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina early this afternoon. However... conditions are deteriorating over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Hurricane conditions are begining to spread onto the coast in the Hurricane Warning area. Wind gusts to hurricane-force could also extend inland up to 150 miles along the path of Isabel. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...with higher gusts. This is just above the category two wind speed threshold of the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Only small changes in strength are likely prior to landfall...and weakening is expected after landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 345 miles. A gust of 63 mph was recently observed at Atlantic Beach North Carolina. A gust of 60 mph was observed at Elizabeth City North Carolina. The most recent minimum central pressure measured by a hurricane hunter aircraft was 957 mb...28.26 inches. Storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers. Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel. There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia today repeating the 8 am EDT position...33.7 N... 75.2 W. Movement toward...northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure... 957 mb. For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office and statements from local emergency management officials. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 am EDT. Forecaster Franklin |
"Be wary of strong drink. It can make you shoot at tax collectors ... and miss." Robert A. Heinlein
I consider that good news!!!!
At least something good is coming from this beast!!!
Everyone expects to see alot of trees come down, I lost mine to Bertha but my neighbor has several tall pines that I'm warily eying. There was a large tree that came down last night in the Lake Smith area...ony a 15-20 mph wind at the time. Crap.
BTW, has anyone seem Mike Seidel on TWC? He's in VA Beach and his body language is hilarious. I expect to see him blow away!
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