...Isabel continues toward the Outer Banks...winds decrease slightly... a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect north of Chincoteague to Moriches Inlet New York...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac. At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 33.7 north...longitude 75.2 west or about 110 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina. This is also about 95 miles southeast of Cape Lookout North Carolina. Isabel is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina early this afternoon. However... conditions are deteriorating over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Hurricane conditions are begining to spread onto the coast in the Hurricane Warning area. Wind gusts to hurricane-force could also extend inland up to 150 miles along the path of Isabel. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph...with higher gusts. This is just above the category two wind speed threshold of the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Only small changes in strength are likely prior to landfall...and weakening is expected after landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 345 miles. A gust of 63 mph was recently observed at Atlantic Beach North Carolina. A gust of 60 mph was observed at Elizabeth City North Carolina. The most recent minimum central pressure measured by a hurricane hunter aircraft was 957 mb...28.26 inches. Storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers. Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel. There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia today repeating the 8 am EDT position...33.7 N... 75.2 W. Movement toward...northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph. Minimum central pressure... 957 mb. For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office and statements from local emergency management officials. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 am EDT. Forecaster Franklin |
Didn't see it, but I'd be willing to bet it was Howard's Pub. They advertise that they're open 364 days a year no matter what (they close Christmas Day). Looks like Ocracoke will be on the north side of the eye, and catch the worst of it, or nearly so. Still, they'll be OK; the village, and Howard's, are on the sound side. Storm surge won't be a factor. A "mandatory" evacuation order, which the tourists obey but the natives ignore, was ordered not so much because of fears about the immediate impact of the storm, but because Ocracoke will be isolated, likely for several days, due both to the suspension of ferry service and probable closure of Highway 12 to the north.
Howard's will be fine, unless they have an extended power outage and run out of ice.