Posted on 09/17/2003 8:14:30 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache
Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003
...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.
All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.
An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.
Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.
There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Avila
Didn't see it, but I'd be willing to bet it was Howard's Pub. They advertise that they're open 364 days a year no matter what (they close Christmas Day). Looks like Ocracoke will be on the north side of the eye, and catch the worst of it, or nearly so. Still, they'll be OK; the village, and Howard's, are on the sound side. Storm surge won't be a factor. A "mandatory" evacuation order, which the tourists obey but the natives ignore, was ordered not so much because of fears about the immediate impact of the storm, but because Ocracoke will be isolated, likely for several days, due both to the suspension of ferry service and probable closure of Highway 12 to the north.
Howard's will be fine, unless they have an extended power outage and run out of ice.
I think they are already getting a little loopy. LOL!
Oh no! No Pina Coladas! Oh, the horror!
My experience is that pine trees weather these storms much better than hardwoods.
LOL!
You're right about the pines...they'll bend almost all the way over before snapping, but my big concern is having the damned things come out of the ground, roots and all. We'll see.
I've had power go down twice already but it was back within 5 minutes. I'm really praying that it keeps up...I'd hate to lose FreeRepublic this early.
A pretty good indicator for the rest of your day. Hang in there!
I came in anyway, but was surprised to see that Bridgestone-Firestone [the largest employer in Wilson] is closed today.
James Rosen is going to 'wear the daddy pants' when the hurricane hits DC! LOL
President Bush is in Camp David...they moved up the meeting with the King of Jordan and relocated it to Camp David (press conference later today from Camp David).
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