Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[southernnorthcarolina]

Obviously I'm in the minority of the viewing public (so what else is new?), but I find the vast majority of live remotes useless. I mean, if there's a chance the reporter can snag a Justice as he or she leaves the Supreme Court, and ask a question, then that's a reason to do a live remote from in front of the Supreme Court Building. But we know that's not about to happen. In this case, the Supreme Court Building is a prop, and nothing more.

So too with Mr. Cantore and his backdrop of gently waving sea oats. He has yet to add a bit of information that could not have been accomplished in the studio.

[Howlin]

I think I am going to go, too, so I can live to see if this storm gets here!

See you all in the morning!

[Howlin]

Look at the web cam in the morning. It's really a nice calming picture!

[MEG33]

I'm signing off.I am hoping that this storm goes to pieces and dies at sea!Stay safe!bbl!

[Orlando]

I would put the TEN COMMANDMENTS back up, but that's me.

[Howlin]

Issued at: 1:53 AM EDT 9/18/03 (gateway).


Rainbands of large hurricane isabel spreading across eastern north carolina and southeastern virginia,

A hurricane warning remains in effect from cape fear north carolina to chincoteague virginia, including pamlico and albemarle sounds, and the chesapeake bay south of smith point. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area, generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the hurricane warning area.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect south of cape fear to south santee river south carolina, and north of chincoteague to sandy hook new jersey, including delaware bay. A tropical storm warning also remains in effect for the chesapeake bay from smith point northward, and for the tidal potomac.

At 2 am edt, the center of hurricane isabel was located by an air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft near latitude 32.5 north, longitude 74.3 west or about 205 miles south-southeast of cape hatteras north carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track, the center of isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern north carolina during the day thursday. However, conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph, with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter is 957 mb, 28.26 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels, along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves, is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in chesapeake bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches, with locally higher amounts, are likely in association with isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern north carolina and southeastern virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 2 am edt position, 32.5 n, 74.3 w. Movement toward, north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 105 mph. Minimum central pressure, 957 mb.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office and statements from local emergency management officials.

The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 5 am edt.

[CobaltBlue]

Fairfax County schools closed tomorrow, so woohoo! the younger son has the day off. George Mason University is closed tomorrow, so woohoo! the older son has the day off. The federal government is closed tomorrow, so woohoo! the Dear Husband has the day off. Fairfax County government is closed tomorrow, which includes the courts, in which case CB doesn't have to go to court tomorrow, woohoo!

Woohoo, woohoo, woohoo! And there was much rejoicing.

Best FRegards to everyone who is at risk from the impending storm. You are in my prayers.

[fatima]

Good night Howlin.

[rwfromkansas]

Good point. I do think there are times when a live shot is pointless. A prop alone isn't enough reason to do a live shot. You need to be able to work it in and add something that has not already been said.

Though I think a hurricane needs a live shot....it screams pictures. I want to see those oats waving and Dan Rather about ready to blow away.

[Squantos]

Well I think I was pretty close when I said this thing may trash my ex-wifes "beach" (yeah I restrained the spelling I wanted) house on Top Sail Island near Surf City.

Hope Everyone Stays Safe !

[Brad’s Gramma]

I would put the TEN COMMANDMENTS back up REAL FAST, but that's me (too).

[Rain-maker]

ROFL, maybe your onto something...

[Sandy]

Whoa boy. Thursday's gonna be a looooong day.

I keep remembering the way my cats went diving under the couch years ago when our town in PA got hit with a tornado. I'll be watching my cats for clues tomorrow.

[Orion78]

WOW! It took about 5 minutes to get that page to load, but it was worth it. Got any other cool links? =)

[southernnorthcarolina]

The 2AM co-ordinates (32.5N, 74.3W) would seem to indicate a continuation of the general trend of two degrees of north latitude movement being gained for each one degree of movement to the west. So no shift, at least yet, from a NNW heading to a NW heading. A miss to the east of Hatteras still appears plausible, even though the "pros" aren't even mentioning the possibility.

Rain-maker posted a good map at post 160 of this thread. Those wishing to take a close look at the direction of Isabel might wish to go there (click the map to enlarge), and take a look where 32.5N/74.3W falls on the map, in comparison to the course projected a few hours ago. She's diverging to the right (at least short-term), and that's a good thing. Under any circumstances, I should add.

[Orion78]

I was noticing that as well. Isabel has to make a sharp left sometime soon if she is going to follow the charts. If she keeps this heading, she will go right up the Chesapeake Bay like some models predicted. Lets hope for everyone's sake that she turns even more to the right and heads out to sea.

[Fledermaus]

We here in middle Tennesse will get a special treat when WLAC 1510 am talk show host Phil Valentine http://www.wlac.com will have his brother "Hurricane" Mark on live on his show starting at 2 pm central time.

Mark is a hoot and usually throws parties during hurricanes and gets quite drunk! Thursday he's going to stay sober and report in to Phil's show and even drive and follow the storm. He's currently only one mile from the islands near Beaufort near Morhead City.

Anyone can listen to the show live by going to the radio station website above. It's going to be fun. But I think Isabel might just peter out once it hits land and will just dump rain.

[Lostinacademe]

No one here in Carrboro seems to be too worried, in fact UNC didn't even close the campus for Thursday, classes are still on. I have to say I'm rather impressed with the local population, considering how they act when an inch of snow is forecast!

[DollyCali]

I recall the biggest problems in that area was the possibility of the spin off tornados

[My Favorite Headache]

GASP! Bite your tounge....I am gonna wash out that mouth with soap...Rule 1 of FR Fight Club...Never compare anyone to the Rev. Jesse Jackson!!!!!