Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[honeygrl]

"Oh yeah? Well... I've had batches of potato salad that wreaked destruction that were worse that this!!!"

Oh yeah! Well, I was in labor with my last child for over 30 hours! Beat that!!

/sarcasm (of course)

[Howlin]

Don't feed the trolls.

[Calpernia]

Ramius is too busy playing with volcanoes :)

[lizma]

4 hours of sleep last night with some pretty bizarre hurricane dreams

LOL! I dreamed last night my car got pushed into the Chesapeake.

Woke up then dreamed the train I was on track just happen to end and it fell into the Chesapeake.

Woke up again to later dream the boat I was on decided to just overturn in the Chesapeake. All started out with me leaving a bizarre PTA meeting.

Weirdest set of dreams I think I've ever had.

No more apple crisp and milk before bedtime!!! (At least when a hurricane is coming.)

[Dec31,1999]

Starting new thread because thread #1 was being weighed down...I am on broadband it was even slowing.

We peons don't have those problems with dial-up! :)

I remember when FR threads couldn't go beyond 400 or so replies because noone could download them anymore. There was a certain beauty to it. I miss those limitations still.

[Howlin]

If you had a party, Ramius and I would drink all the beer. That's what we'd do for our part.

Now that you bring that up, I have noticed that when we've been making our lists of things to gather up for the hurricane, the guys, WITHOUT FAIL, put BEER/LIQUOR first.

And then guns.

[Wneighbor]

At least we know how to spell volcanose...

Everybody nose that the plural of volcano is volcanus.

I leave here for just a little phone call and the two of you erupt into a spelling argument. And it ain't just the dwarves causin' the trouble this time!

[goodseedhomeschool (returned)]

Praying for all who are in the path of this storm.

[Howlin]

Heck, I remember when there weren't 400 people here.......LOL.

[honeygrl]

I have several friends in Raleigh and one in Chapel Hill. The one in Chapel Hill is absolutely terrified because of her experience with Fran. Maybe some prayers her way to ease her nerves a bit.

[Howlin]

My niece was in Fran in Chapel Hill. We lived in Greensbor then and didn't get hit very hard. I thought she was making it up until I drove down there to get the dog.

Believe me, when Floyd came, I opened my door and she and 14 of her sorority sisters came to stay.

[MEG33]

We had two baby raccoons in the atrium last night after the hummingbird food.

[honeygrl]

Raleigh has the most screwed up intersections I've ever driven through. It's difficult to tell which way you are going, which light is meant for you, and which lane to be in and too many roads coming together in one spot. I HATED driving there.

[Scott from the Left Coast]

I was buried under the stuff from that volcano he was talking about. It was in 1980 (Mt. St. Helens). I was at our alma mater (both of us went there) in Pullman, over 200 miles from the volcano. A bright sunny day in mid May turned darker than the darkest cave at midnight and about 8-12 inches of fine volcanic ash rained down over the next 8 hours. At midnight we left the student union building after being locked inside (they wouldn't let anyone out) and it was like walking through a match factory on the Moon. Closed the university for a week (Party!).

And we were over 200 miles east of the volcano. Something I'll remember for my entire life.

[honeygrl]

I've been on the thread alllll day too and my eyeballs really hurt. i just had to use some eyedrops to keep going. This has me fascinated and I can't get away.

[aberaussie]

Are they closing the schools today in Raleigh? Just curious, my godchild would be thrilled.

[Nita Nupress]

lol....I shouldn't be laughing at that in the dorm of my Christian college, but that was funny stuff. :)

Dang, I remember one time you said you were 14 or 15 yrs old and I was so impressed. My, how time flies. Good luck in college!

[Dec31,1999]

I am in Raleigh. I'll try to stop all I can.......LOL.

Oh you poor thing! Hey, you never know; perhaps it will make a sharp turn northward and catch us by surprise!

[Howlin]

Yes, they sure are!

[Rain-maker]

13L.ISABEL, TRACK_VIS,  17 SEP 2003 2155Z
	Forecast by: National Hurricane Center Graphic by: Naval Atlantic Meteorology and Oceanography Center		Latest Image