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Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"
NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

Posted on 09/17/2003 8:14:30 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; US: North Carolina; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: hurricane; hurricaneisabel; isabel; landfall
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To: NautiNurse

I emailed this to a bunch of people. Too funny! Great capture!

1,501 posted on 09/18/2003 1:47:04 PM PDT by abner (In search of a witty tag line...)
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To: NCjim
Wow - 1500! :-)
1,502 posted on 09/18/2003 1:47:04 PM PDT by NCjim
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To: evets
Whoa, nice picture, hey Toto, we aint in Kansas anymore!
1,503 posted on 09/18/2003 1:49:06 PM PDT by exnavy
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To: abner
That one deserves a "caption this" post!
1,504 posted on 09/18/2003 1:50:21 PM PDT by exnavy
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To: Interesting Times
It's still a hurricane...

WTNT33 KNHC 182033
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2003

...ISABEL POUNDING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS... AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO MORICHES INLET NEW YORK...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD...AND FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC.

AT 5 PM EDT...ALL WARNINGS SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROANOKE RAPIDS NORTH CAROLINA.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA TOWARD WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH ISABEL WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAND... UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...MAY BE EXPERIENCED WELL INLAND TO THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...AS WELL AS ON HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS AND OTHER STRUCTURES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...MAY STILL OCCUR ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF ADJACENT RIVERS. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISABEL.

THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MARYLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...36.2 N... 77.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE...AND STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM EDT AND 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


1,505 posted on 09/18/2003 1:50:49 PM PDT by Interesting Times (tag line. you're it.)
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To: exnavy
It does. I just keep looking at it for a laugh.
1,506 posted on 09/18/2003 1:52:50 PM PDT by abner (In search of a witty tag line...)
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To: Interesting Times
Dr. Steve Lyon from TWC said it will be dying down in the next six hours. Thank goodness for everyone out there, but there's still six more hours.

Looks a lot calmer at Radio Island, NC.

We are still not out of the woods yet.

1,507 posted on 09/18/2003 1:54:04 PM PDT by Slip18
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To: DollyCali
We're on the west side and we're probably having 40 MPH winds, maybe gusts.
1,508 posted on 09/18/2003 1:54:04 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: Howlin
How's the adopted doggie doing through all of this?
1,509 posted on 09/18/2003 1:55:00 PM PDT by Slip18
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To: NCjim
I hope it starts to get better soon. We must be experiencing one of those yellow rain bands Greg Fishel was showing cause it's kicking up good now. Raining a LOT of leaves and smallish branches too.

MKM

1,510 posted on 09/18/2003 1:55:25 PM PDT by mykdsmom (We often give our enemies the means of our own destruction - Aesop)
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To: Howlin
I have a friend on the east side of raleigh that said the winds are starting to pick up. The radial wind velocity map shows you guy may be getting higher winds here soon.
1,511 posted on 09/18/2003 1:55:45 PM PDT by honeygrl
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To: Howlin; Gabz; xsmommy
And where are Gabz and xs? They haven't been around in a couple of hours.
1,512 posted on 09/18/2003 1:56:18 PM PDT by Slip18
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To: sonsofliberty2000; maica; Travis McGee
great pictures!! I hope everyone stays safe.
1,513 posted on 09/18/2003 1:56:18 PM PDT by Freee-dame
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To: Howlin
You be careful, we're praying for you all.
1,514 posted on 09/18/2003 1:56:31 PM PDT by exnavy
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To: TC Rider
Same here. We'll be cleaning all day tomorrow, but at least it's here!
1,515 posted on 09/18/2003 1:56:47 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: Interesting Times
It's raining leaves...

Heh...here too.

1,516 posted on 09/18/2003 1:56:51 PM PDT by EternalVigilance
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To: MoJo2001
Update on WRAL-TV web page on New Bern:

A storm surge of 5 to 6 feet was reported at Cape Hatteras, with about 4 feet in the Neuse River at New Bern, N.C., the hurricane center said.

1,517 posted on 09/18/2003 1:57:24 PM PDT by NCjim
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To: EternalVigilance
Keep everybody up to date. I imagine you're in for it.

CNN said to expect winds up to 150 mph inland....and we all know they don't lie........LOL.
1,518 posted on 09/18/2003 1:58:43 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: Slip18; Howlin; Gabz
fine here, slippy. still just rain. got a call from xsteen's highschool phonetree to say that they aren't going to have school tomorrow. Fairfax isn't saying anything yet, so the other 2 are worried they will have to go and big sis won't! had the power flicker a few times so far.
1,519 posted on 09/18/2003 1:58:52 PM PDT by xsmommy
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To: Howlin
Ten minutes ago we had 26 mph with 39 mph gusts...
1,520 posted on 09/18/2003 1:59:00 PM PDT by NCjim
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