Hurricane ISABEL downgraded to Cat 2

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/16/2003 | Nat. Hurricane Center

[Orbiting_Rosie's_Head]

000 WTNT33 KNHC 161442 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2003

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED AS ISABEL MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH MARYLAND...AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST OR ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES ISABEL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. WHILE SOME FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TODAY...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR RESTRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEING EXPERIENCED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...27.4 N... 71.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 959 MB.

FOR STORM-RELATED INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE...AND STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Orbiting_Rosie's_Head]

Losing Steam Fast

[dead]

I was hoping for Friday off.

[1Old Pro]

Losing Steam Fast

We can only hope

[jwalburg]

But if you want to watch anyway, here's a live cam from a lighthouse on Cape Hatteras:

Lighthouse view

[Orbiting_Rosie's_Head]

A cool summer has left the Atlantic coast with cooler water this year. I think it will fizzle out into a dud.

[Petronski]

000 wtnt33 knhc 161442 tcpat3 bulletin hurricane isabel advisory number 42 nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl 11 am edt tue sep 16 2003

...hurricane watch issued as isabel moves north-northwestward...

At 11 am edt...1500z...a hurricane watch is in effect from little river inlet south carolina to chincoteague virginia...including the pamlico and albemarle sounds...chesapeake bay south of north beach maryland...and the tidal potomac. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

Hurricane warnings may be required later today or tonight.
At 11 am edt...a tropical storm watch is in effect south of little river inlet to south santee river south carolina. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch may be required north of the hurricane watch area later today or tonight.

At 11 am edt...1500z...the center of hurricane isabel was located near latitude 27.4 north... Longitude 71.2 west or about 600 miles south-southeast of cape hatteras north carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased and are now near 105 mph...with higher gusts. This makes isabel a category two hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane scale. While some further weakening is expected today...conditions could become favorable for restrengthening prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 120 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles.

A noaa hurricane hunter aircraft reported a minimum central pressure of 959 mb...28.32 inches.

Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are already being experienced along portions of the u.s. southeast and mid-atlantic coasts. These conditions will also continue over portions of the the bahamas for the next few days.
Repeating the 11 am edt position...27.4 n... 71.2 w. Movement toward...north-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 959 mb.

For storm-related information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office...and statements from local emergency management officials.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 2 pm edt followed by the next complete advisory at 5 pm edt.
Forecaster franklin

[Orbiting_Rosie's_Head]

Thanks for the text conversion. I was too lazy to fix the hurrican centers' all caps.

[NittanyLion]

Pressure inched up 3MB since 5AM, and winds continue to decrease.

That's great news for me (sitting here in Richmond), but I get the feeling some folks on this forum have a perverse hope that the storm restrengthens into a Category 4...

[Brian S]

While some further weakening is expected today...conditions could become favorable for restrengthening prior to landfall.

[FreeTheHostages]

Category 2, but read the NOAA advisory: chances of it being reinforced later. And it's a *huge* category 2 -- it will dump a lot of water. Major flooding unavoidable. This thing is big.

[Orbiting_Rosie's_Head]

I work in Baltimore and have a flimsy particle board house just across the border in PA. Just yesterday there were local media predictions of a Chesapeake landfall at Cat 4 with the eye passing right over my house. I'm not completely relieved yet, but I'm beginning to feel better about it.

[dirtboy]

And it's a *huge* category 2 -- it will dump a lot of water. Major flooding unavoidable. This thing is big.

Floyd was down to a Cat 2 when it hit land - with this kind of storm, rainfall and freshwater flooding become the greatest hazards.

[TexasGunLover]

Losing Steam Fast

That's good news...

[JustAnAmerican]

To be honest I could deal with a little wind if it ment that the rain part would bypass here. 12+ inches of rain would equal a much bigger disaster versus high winds. The last big rain 2-3 inches had cars floating down the streets and flooded homes everywhere(A sign of tax dollars being spent elsewhere instead of maintaining the infrastructure), I can only imagine what 12 will do.

[dirtboy]

Isabel is now a Cat 2 - but don't downplay this system:

Floyd was a Cat-2 when it hit.

As Isabel slows down, it is spreading out and getting wider, which will increase the length of time that affected areas are impacted by heavy rains.

Most of the area within the possible path of Isabel already has saturated ground, which will magnify the effects of any flooding rains.

Just a slight deviation off the forecast track to the east could send Isabel directly along the coast, hugging the shoreline and impacting shore points from Hatteras to Ocean City, MD and Lewes, DE. A slightly more pronounced turn would impact the Jersey Shore and Long Island, which are heavily developed. A 100 mph hurricane skirting the Jersey Shore would cause a considerable dollar amount of damage.

They haven't done a very good job forecasting this storm over the last 36 hours, don't rely on their forecasts now to believe that you are out of the woods.

[dirtboy]

Hurricane Isabel Intermediate Advisory Number 42a

Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on September 16, 2003

...Isabel continues north-northwestward... a Hurricane Watch is in effect from Little River Inlet South Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach Maryland... and the tidal Potomac. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

Hurricane warnings may be required later today or tonight.

A tropical storm watch is in effect south of Little River Inlet to South Santee River South Carolina. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch may be required north of the Hurricane Watch area later today or tonight.

At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 27.5 north... longitude 71.3 west or about 595 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts...or category two on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. While some further weakening is possible today...conditions could become favorable for restrengthening prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles...mainly to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb...28.32 inches.

Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are already being experienced along portions of the U.S. Southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. These conditions will also continue over portions of the the Bahamas for the next few days.

Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...27.5 N... 71.3 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 959 mb.

For storm-related information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office...and statements from local emergency management officials.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.

Forecaster Franklin

[meowmeow]

Agree - northern VA had 3"-5" of rain all within a couple hours not too long ago. Basements flooded, drains backed up and it was a mess. This thing could drop down to a tropical storm and it would still be a disaster for many. The ground is aready saturated.

[southernnorthcarolina]

The 5 PM report should be coming along soon, but the loops available on the NHC site sure make it look like she's turned even futher, and may now be on a due north course, which would be a good thing.

It's also good to note that whereas FReepers were talking about 30-foot storm surges and Category 5 winds, the areas of concern now are torn-off shingles, flooded basements, and running out of ice. Sanity appears to be slowly returning to the forum.

[Interesting Times]

WTNT33 KNHC 162033
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2003

...ADDITIONAL WATCHES ISSUED...WARNINGS LIKELY TONIGHT...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH
OF CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA TO LITTLE EGG INLET NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING
DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH MARYLAND NORTHWARD.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH
MARYLAND...AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET
TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.

HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT FOR A PORTION OF
THE WATCH AREA.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 570 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 275 MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE BEING
EXPERIENCED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...27.8 N... 71.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 959 MB.

FOR STORM-RELATED INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE...AND STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Interesting Times]

New vortex data:

000
URNT12 KNHC 161953
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/1953Z
B. 27 DEG 46 MIN N
71 DEG 18 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2707 M
D. 85 KT
E. 220 DEG 50 NM
F. 307 DEG 83 KT
G. 220 DEG 053 NM
H. 958 MB
I. 9 C/ 3079 M
J. 15 C/ 3074 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN E-SE
M. C25
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF963 1713A ISABEL OB 11
MAX FL WIND 95 KT SE QUAD 1720Z. MUCH IMPROVED RADAR PRESENTATI
ON. SPIRAL BANDING EYEWALL.

-----

It may pick up some steam from here.