Posted on 09/16/2003 5:00:01 AM PDT by BlackRazor
Burr leads Bowles, Blue in U.S. Senate race, poll finds
By ROB CHRISTENSEN, Staff Writer
Republican Rep. Richard Burr of Winston-Salem holds an early lead in next year's race to replace Democratic Sen. John Edwards, according to a new statewide poll.
Burr leads two prospective Democratic opponents, Charlotte investment banker Erskine Bowles and Raleigh attorney Dan Blue, the survey found.
Meanwhile, Democratic Gov. Mike Easley, who plans to seek a second term next year, continues to show resilience despite a battered economy and 2 1/2 years of budget crisis, according to the survey of 600 likely voters conducted last week by Research 2000 and commissioned by The News & Observer.
Burr showed strength in the first public poll taken since Edwards announced Sept. 7 he would not seek re-election and would instead concentrate on his White House run.
When asked whom they preferred in the 2004 Senate race, likely voters said they preferred Burr over Bowles by a 43 percent to 37 percent margin with 20 percent undecided. They said they liked Burr over Blue by a 45 percent to 33 percent margin, with 22 percent undecided.
The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. That means that the Burr-Bowles race could be a toss-up or Burr's edge could be as much as 14 percentage points and that Burr could lead Blue by as few as 4 percentage points or as many as 20 percentage points.
Burr's early lead may reflect that he has been campaigning for the seat for nine months, said Del Ali, president of the polling company. "Burr has been out and running," Ali said. "He is going to be the GOP candidate. Now for all intents and purposes, it is only in the last week we have begun to hear about Bowles and Blue."
Neither Bowles nor Blue has announced his candidacy, and the Democratic field is far from certain.
Bowles, a former White House chief of staff, and Blue, a former state House speaker, met last week in Blue's law office in Raleigh. "I've gotten along with Erskine over the years," Blue said. "We basically just talked about being friends. It was a pleasant discussion."
Blue said he's talking with supporters, weighing a potential bid. "I am asking people to be totally candid. I don't want to prejudge what my final position is going to be."
In a Democratic primary, Bowles was preferred over Blue by a 31 percent to 17 percent margin among likely Democratic voters, with 52 percent undecided.
There appears to be renewed interest in the Senate race by Democratic U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge of Lillington. He did not return a phone call Monday.
Burr said he was encouraged by the poll results. He expressed surprise that he was leading Bowles, who just came through a statewide campaign, losing to Republican Elizabeth Dole for U.S. Senate last year.
Geoff Garin, who is Bowles' pollster, said he was skeptical of the poll results.
Garrin released partial results of a survey he conducted Sept. 8-9 of 605 likely voters, which showed Bowles leading Burr by a 43 percent to 37 percent margin, with 22 percent undecided.
"Our polling shows that Erskine Bowles would begin this race with a lead over Richard Burr," Garin said.
The Research 2000 survey showed Burr was viewed favorably by 42 percent of those surveyed. Bowles was viewed favorably by 34 percent and Blue was viewed favorably by 29 percent.
In the governor's race, 42 percent of those surveyed said they would vote to re-elect Easley. Twenty-seven percent said they would consider voting for another candidate, and 31 percent said they wanted to replace the governor.
"It's his race to lose," said Ali, adding that all Easley has to do to win is persuade 8 or 9 percent of the undecided voters to support him.
For Easley to lose, Ali said, there would have to be strong coattails from President Bush to help the GOP candidate. "If it's a close presidential race," Ali said, "I don't see how Easley loses."
Asked to rate Easley's job performance, 52 percent rated him good or excellent, 35 percent thought he was doing a fair job, 8 percent said poor and 5 percent were not sure.
A number of Republicans are running next year, including state Sen. Patrick Ballantine of Wilmington, Davie County Commissioner Dan Barrett, former U.S. Rep. Bill Cobey of Durham, Southern Pines insurance agent George Little and former Charlotte Mayor Richard Vinroot.
:-p Welcome back. I need you to provide me with my poll fixes as Nov 04 descends upon us.
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