Posted on 09/09/2003 6:06:02 AM PDT by jern
Tuesday, September 9, 2003 7:08AM EDT
Blue-Bowles contest looms Edwards' Senate seat up for grabs
By ROB CHRISTENSEN, Staff Writer
With Sen. John Edwards not seeking re-election, North Carolina's Senate Democratic primary next year could, in the immortal words of Yankee great Yogi Berra, be deja vu all over again. Two big-name Democrats, who battled for 11 months during last year's Senate race -- former state House Speaker Dan Blue of Raleigh and former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles of Charlotte -- are considering a rematch
No other major Democratic names have surfaced as potential candidates for the seat held by Edwards, who announced Sunday he will give up his Senate seat and pursue the presidency next year. In last September's primary, Bowles won with 44 percent, and Blue finished second with 29 percent.
A Bowles-Blue contest could have a marked ideological flavor. Bowles, a Charlotte investment banker, was frequently criticized by Blue, a Raleigh lawyer , as being too cozy with Wall Street interests. Also, Bowles was far more supportive of military action in Iraq than Blue was.
"It could be a pretty competitive battle between the party's moderate and progressive wings," said Andrew Taylor, a political science professor at N.C. State University. "That will consume the energy and the resources for whoever the nominee is."
That possibility concerns some of the state's senior Democrats, who hope the party can coalesce behind one candidate, just as Republican leaders have united behind U.S. Rep. Richard Burr of Winston-Salem, who already has raised $3.4 million.
"Because we don't have the time -- raising the money is going to be particularly difficult," said former Charlotte Mayor Harvey Gantt, a two-time Democratic Senate nominee. "... If one has to raise money in a close primary, that depletes our resources. Those who think about running ought to sit down and decide what is best for the party."
Democrats urged Edwards to make a decision well before the Feb. 28 candidate filing deadline, saying that if Edwards was not going to run, other Democrats needed time to mount a campaign. No matter who is the nominee, Democrats said Monday, Burr is vulnerable.
"Our opponents have cleared the field for a congressman who has been nothing more than a rubber stamp for this administration's economic policies, which have cost North Carolinians 115,000 jobs since the president took office," said U.S. Sen. Jon Corzine of New Jersey , chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
But several Republican Party strategists said Monday that they are glad Edwards is out of the race. They think Bowles, whom they view as the most likely Democratic nominee, will be a weaker opponent than an incumbent senator.
"Edwards or Bowles? Edwards can raise more money," said Peter Hans, a strategist for such GOP Senate candidates as Burr, Elizabeth Dole and Lauch Faircloth. "Who has a better life story? This Robbins metaphor for populism beats Charlotte/Wall Street. "
Still, Bowles would start a Senate race as by far the best- known candidate. A poll conducted by Elon University in March found that 87 percent of those surveyed recognized Bowles' name, compared with 81 percent who recognized Edwards, 37 percent Blue and 36 percent Burr.
Bowles is so well-known because he spent $13.3 million in his Senate campaign, including $7 million from his personal fortune. But Bowles has privately said he does not want to spend so much of his own money this time.
There are also new disincentives for Bowles and other wealthy candidates to spend their own money. The new McCain-Feingold campaign finance law includes the so called millionaire's provision, which penalizes candidates who self-finance campaigns. If Bowles were to loan his campaign another $7 million next year, it would permit his opponent to collect contributions of as much as $12,000 per person, rather than the current limit of $2,000 per person.
Although Bowles emerged from last year's Senate campaign well-known, he also was somewhat beat up. In November, he lost to Republican Elizabeth Dole by a 54-45 percent margin -- the largest gap in a North Carolina Senate race in a quarter of a century. But he still won more votes than Edwards won in 1998.
Voters have a mixed view of Bowles. The Elon poll found that Bowles was viewed favorably by 29 percent of the voters and unfavorably by 21 percent.
On the other hand, Blue's major problem is convincing Democrats that he can win. In the primary last year, Blue found it difficult to raise money. He spent $764,638 during the campaign, finishing with a campaign debt of $135,000. After the primary, Bowles helped retire some of that debt by having his backers donate at least $23,000.
Blue endorsed Bowles a few days before the November election, but the endorsement was so belated and the negotiations so difficult that it caused hard feelings.
Staff writer Rob Christensen can be reached at 829-4532 or robc@newsobserver.com.
Note also that New Jersey's John Corzine, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, is, along with Wisconsin's Democratic Senator Herb Kohl, fabulously wealthy (not, as Seinfeld might say, that there's anything wrong with that), and ran the most expensive race in Senate history in 2000, outspending Republican Bob Franks $63 million to $6 million on the way to a 50-47 win. So the first word of advice fron the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chairman, no doubt, is "be rich." Don't expect anything more than token help from the national Democratic Party for poor ol' Dan Blue.
I am behind him 100%.
That having been said, there was NO way I was going to vote for Irksome Bowels.
I did vote for her in the general election, and have taken a wait-and-see approach as to her voting record [I'm a pragmatist like that].
After all, we are stuck with her until the next election at the very least, and I don't think any amount of foot-stomping or complaining will change that.
I am anxious to see what her ACU ratings for 2003 will be. [Burr's '02 rating was 96].
Certainly Congressman Burr is no "Republican in Name Only"; in my opinion (other FReepers will disagree), neither is Elizabeth Dole.
Con's statement that he was anxiously awaiting the next ACU ratings prompted me to ask the FReeper community about up-to-date ratings, if they exist. But I am confident that Liddy will at least support the President on judicial nominations and the like, and won't often depart GOP orthodoxy on other matters. She won't be a "movement conservative," but I'll be surprised if she does anything that will cause conservative outrage.
Some, in my judgment, are too quick to affix the RINO label to those whose positions are not in 100% accord with whatever is desired. Certainly, Mrs. Dole is no Olympia Snowe or Arlen Specter. Exactly where she'll be on the ideological spectrum is yet to be determined.
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