Posted on 09/09/2003 2:09:41 AM PDT by DoughtyOne
In four short weeks, Californians will go to the polls. On that day a momentous decision will be tallied, but the voting that will be tallied on that day, is already taking place. Since yesterday California absentee voters have been able to send in their ballots. The implications of this are vitally important to republican strategists.
A new field poll to be released today states that Bustamante is presently running at 30%, Schwarzenegger at 25%, McClintock at 13% and Peter Ueberroth at 7%. All the rest of the 135 candidates that will appear on this ballot are polling in single digits or less.
The recall vote is looking promising. 55% of poll participants were in favor of the recall while 40% were opposed. If things continue as they appear now, Gray Davis will be recalled. The question is, who will replace him?
The credible candidates at this point are republican Arnold Schwarzenegger and his democrat opponent, Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante. While a couple of other candidates still hold out for a significant spark to catch their campaigns on fire, the likelihood of that happening is unlikely. In fact, it's next to impossible.
Ueberroth has been hovering around 7-9% in the polls. State Senator Tom McClintock has been hovering around 12 to 13%. Neither has been moving upward. Despite an excellent debate appearance by McClintock, his poll numbers seem to have only budged 1% if that. Inter day internals by both camps show him drifting from 12 to 15% and back. Momentum that had been hoped for isn't materializing.
The new field poll asked participants what they would do if McClintock withdrew from the race. In that race, Bustamante would actually gain 1% to 31%, but Schwarzenegger would pull in an additional eight points landing at 33%, just 2% above Bustamante for the win. If that is true, this is a critically thin margin, one that will loom large as I continue.
These figures present a real problem for republicans. Every day that goes by without the trailing republican candidates pulling out, more of their votes will be irretrievably cast by absentee ballot. Ueberroth's 7% and McClintock's 13% could account for as much as 20% of the potential vote if they fail to pull out. That would lock up the state's leading office for Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante if Davis is recalled. Most republicans think that would be a terrible outcome, but there is a chance this could be avoided. If it is to be avoided with as little downside as possible, then Ueberroth and McClintock need to come to grips with reality and withdraw as soon as possible.
California's absentee ballots as a percentage of the overall vote has been increasing for some time. Last November it reached 27% of the total state vote. Therefore something like 5.4% of the total California vote, which would be headed for Ueberroth and McClintock, would likely be cast before election day. Every week that goes by, 1.35% of the total vote will be cast for these two men, unable to be retrieved later on. Once these votes are cast they are locked in. But still other aspects of this phenomena may exaggerate it's impact.
What might bode even worse for republicans with regard to this topic, is that republicans traditionally cast far more absentee ballots than the democrats. Some northern and eastern state votes are cast by as much as 45% absentee ballots, that's including both sides. The actual republican percentage is likely even higher than this. Traditionally these areas have been the most conservative in the state. So in reality we might well expect more than just 5.4% of California's votes, headed for these two men, to be cast prior to election day. If forty percent of their votes were to be cast prior to election day, that would mean 2% of the total California vote ( that's potential Schwarzenegger votes) could be locked up for them, each and every week up until election day.
Where this looms large, is how these locked up votes are prevented from ever becoming Schwarzenegger's, even if the other men withdraw at some point. If they cost Schwarzenegger even two percent, they may cost him the election according to the latest field poll. As much as 2% of California's vote, headed for these two men, may have already been cast by the 16th. As much as 4% of the total vote could be given to these two men by absentee vote by the 23rd. Upwards of 6% may have been locked in for them by the 30th.
This is a huge problem for those who wish McClintock to have longer to voice his beliefs on the public stage before the recall election. As important as that consideration is, it pales in comparison to handing this election over to the democrats if absentee votes start being mailed for McClintock and Ueberroth before they withdraw.
With all due respect to Peter Ueberroth, it is time for him to pull out of this election. I like the man, but it's time for him to call it a day and let the vote consolidate behind the leader. Sadly Tom McClintock must do the same thing. If these men cannot do this, and quickly, the election will be over before 70% of the populace even casts a vote. And if that happens, Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante will become Governor of California.
I know that folks are going to say that McClintock deserves more time. I happen to think that is true. Reality says we don't have more time to give him.
We didn't have a primary in this election. We're having to do one on the fly. Tough decisions must be made. They must be made now.
New Field Poll on California Recall
Absentee ballots could shape recall outcome
Assuming the 9th Circuit doesn't call the whole thing off...
Viva la Reconquista! Para la raza, todo, para los gringos, el cargador!
I just can't help it, being a resident of Palm Beach County, knowing that since rats are in control of this thing at the local level, that you'll have the same issue with fraud that we did.
If Arnold loses this election, it will be because of things like this:
Driver's license law is facing its own recall [Schwarzenegger doesn't support Referendum]
Every time I search for reasons why I should support Arnold, Arnold comes right back and spits in the face of the very consersatives he so desperately needs to win over.
If this is how Arnold behaves with McClintock IN THE RACE, I can only imagine what new depths of RINOism he'd descend to if he didn't have to worry about his right flank...
We need Tom to concentrate full-time on ballot initiatves like Prop 54 and overturning the Driver's Licenses for Illegals law - since it appears that Arnold will not do so.After a few years of getting his name out there as a "guerilla" conservative, Tom can try again for a higher elected office.
It would be nice if McClintock could be Governor now.Let's take what we can get, and accept Arnold as Governor now, but prepare Tom for victory in some FUTURE race...
He cannot.
Don't take that endorsement as a given. The "peons" which inhabit these events have been known to flip the bird to the Parskys of the world... What better way than to endorse McClintock.
And, now is the time to find out how effective a LEADER Arnold will be:The new spin being put out by the Arnold camp is that Schwarzenegger is only APPEARING to be a leftie now - so as not to scare off the moderate Democrats and independents.Can be broker a deal to get McClintock to step down?
Can he rally the troops behind him?
They say that he will GOVERN more conservatively... (One hopes.)
Two Democrats and a Republican.That is:
Two Democrats - who can WINLook at it this way:
and a Republican - who cannot.
If you CANNOT have Tom Tancredo, would you rather have Zell Miller, or Barney Frank?
Hey, why don't you email that question to Andrew Sullivan? LOL. j/k
Translation;
8 migrant workers with brand new drivers licences were contacted while they labored under the hot Kali sun and were asked if thyey were thankful for the grey administration's efforts to get them a motor-voter Rat registration.
The workers were skeptical of this American gift as they had not been yet given a car, but the pollster assured them that Bustamonte would see about a station wagon or two, after his election (with their votes), large enough for an entire family of ten.
Additionally, by electing Arnold, however temporarily, you will destroy any opportunity whatsoever to tap into the Latino vote which will soon be California's majority. They can be attracted by social conservatism. They cannot be attracted by social libertinism matched with trust fund protection economics.
The biggest problem with the social leftist/allegedly fiscally "conservative" crowd in places like La Jolla is that they expect the social conservatives to abandon what they care about (mere issues of life and death, their religious commitments, their children, etc.) and the immigrants to abandon what they care about (their families, religious commitments and a start in life here) in order to give the polo pony crowd nice presents in the form of the shifting of tax burdens to the servants.
Demographics is destiny and neither time nor history favor white shoe/trust fund Republicanism. People who do not care to have children have no kick coming when they are overwhelmed by those who do care to have children in a democratic society.
The greatest disaster for trust fund Republicanism in California would be the appointment of a young and vigorous and ultra Catholic Archbishop in Los Angeles to remind Catholics that no Catholic may morally vote for any politician under any circumstances who favors legality and/or funding of abortion. Perhaps, Bishop Wiegand in Sacramento (who has previously directed Davis to stop receiving communion in his diocese) or the new bishop of Oakland will do the necessary honors.
That prohibited category is the one where, shamefully, the three "Catholic" candidates: Bustamante, Schwarzenegger and Davis ALL find themselves. Ironically, the only one of the four leaders for whom Catholics may morally vote is the Protestant McClintock. By his service in Sacramento and his steadfast Christianity in defense of the principles of Western Civilization and Natural law, he has earned every Catholic vote without once relenting on his own religious commitments and principles.
Reasonably, when the Arkansas Antichrist ruled our land, we wondered how a man who refused repeatedly (endlessly) to honor his marriage vows could be entrusted with public authority. The same is true of those who do not honor their religious commitments. If they lie to God, whatever would make you suppose they will tell the truth to you?
I almost wish that McClintock would pull out along with Ueberroth, leave Arnold in a compleely free fire zone, refuse in any any way to come to his assistance, quietly vote absentee to finish off Arnold's candidacy and enjoy the show as the Demonrat slime machine mows Amateur Arnie down, day by day by day, while the foot soldiers spend a month at the beach in their spare time.
This would be sweet justice after the regular biennial backstabbing performance of RINOs in doing analogous damage to actual Republican candidates. McClintock could then piously pose as the fellow who withdrew for the good of the (here all genuflect) PARTY!
I'm not a Californian, so I can't vote in this recall.
However, I am a national activist (one who has some measure of stake in the outcome of this because of its huge impact on the national debate and on our party) with some very small bit of influence. I'm sorry, but I can't back your bid.
I resolved long ago that I would never under any circumstances support a pro-abortion candidate. Won't do it myself, and certainly won't ask anyone else to do so. Some lines should not be crossed, and this is the foremost. All Americans have a God-given, unalienable right to life and liberty, whether they are born yet or not.
There are a whole range of other problems with your candidacy that can't be resolved for a committed Christian and conservative.
Drop out of the race now, endorse the only truly prepared man for this office, Senator McClintock, rethink your ideology, and maybe we can talk sometime.
For now, you don't measure up.
I'm praying for you and your family and for the state of California.
Respectfully, EV
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