Poll Names McClintock as Winner of the Debate

Sacramento T.V. Station KXTV ^ | 9/4/2003 | SurveyUSA

[SierraWasp]

Poll Names McClintock as Winner of the Debate

State Senator Tom McClintock came out on top in a poll that gauged public reaction to Wednesday's candidate debate.

A News10/SurveyUSA poll found that 30 percent of California voters felt McClintock won the debate. Twenty-two percent of those questioned said Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante was number one, while 12 percent named Peter Ueberroth as the winner. Arianna Huffington was favored by nine percent of those surveyed, while three percent said Peter Camejo won.

As evidence that the election is still very much up for grabs, the survey found 24 percent of voters either undecided about the winner of the debate or with no favorite.

The poll showed that Arnold Schwarzenegger's decision to skip the debate may have been costly. Fifty-five percent of voters felt it was the wrong thing to do, while 37 percent approved of the actor's absence. Eight percent had no opinion.

According to the survey, Gov. Gray Davis' half-hour appearance prior to the debate may not have improved his chances of avoiding recall. About a third of those surveyed, 36 percent, said the question-and-answer session caused their opinion of Davis to fall. Seventeen percent came away from the telecast with a better impression of the governor, while 46 percent said their opinion was unchanged.

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The poll questioned 1,444 registered California voters in the hours immediately following the debate. Margin of error for the survey is %.1 percent.

Story last updated Thursday, September 04, 2003 - 5:38 PM

[Dave S]

I just can NOT trust this TV station! They kept this off their web site till late friday to fall into the week-end news trough and be missed by most people!!!

A little paranoid arent we? Maybe they didnt have their technical support person available to add it to the website. Perhaps their agreement with Survey USA gave them rights to the data for on-air broadcast but not for placing it on the web until Friday. Maybe someone was lazy. Lot of reasons other than bias.

[ambrose]

Your poll is being discussed here. Any plans to release a recent poll of the "horse race"?

[Dog Gone]

If 37% believed Arnold did the right thing by staying away, and 30% think McClintock won the debate, who has the most support?

[My2Cents]

There hasn't been a poll, not a public one at least, since Aug. 27th. That one showed McC at 11%, Arnold at 45%. Check http://www.realclearpolitics.com -- they have a link to "Recall Polls".

[ambrose]

KQQL monitored all the polls during 2002, and I believe that he said that SurveyUSA was the 2nd most accurate of the lot.

VeritatisSplendor is the director of SurveyUSA and has chimed in on other threads discussing SurveyUSA polls.

[FairOpinion]

"1. Bustamonte is deliberately making himself look more corrupt and threatening than DAVIS!

2. Davis defeats the Recall with massive telephone bank support from government employee UNIONS!

3. EVERYONE ELSE FROM THE OUTHOUSE TO THE WHITEHOUSE LOSES!!!"

===

You are right, that is exactly the Dem strategy. For this reason, without Arnold we would be sunk -- our only chance is Arnold to cause enough people to vote against the recall and for him, to get a change in CA. Without Arnold it would be either Davis or Bustamante, with a 99% certainty.

[My2Cents]

Gov. Gray Davis' half-hour appearance prior to the debate may not have improved his chances of avoiding recall.

No, if he campaigns for himself, he's dead. His only chance of success is to have stand-in's, like Diane Feinstein, and the Clintons.

[My2Cents]

30 percent of California voters felt McClintock won the debate

From what I saw of the debate, I'd say McC won too. But I'll likely vote for Arnold. I bet half the respondents who said McC won the debate are Arnold supporters.

[SierraWasp]

Whatever...

Hey Kellynla!!! Looky here!!!

[AndyTheBear]

Bustamante is the only Democrat on the ballot and the Dems are famous for voting party line. They will all hold their noses and vote Bustamante.

There are things Republicans could learn from them, like how to win.

The Aug 26 SurveyUSA poll suggests a sizable cross over of Democrats to Arnold.

Moreover close analysis of the LA push poll suggests there are still about 10 perecent of Democrat voters that think that if you vote No on the recall you can't vote on question 2. Despite attempts to educate them with the "No on Recall, yes on Bustamante" slogan, I bet a signifigant number will not bother to vote on question 2 at all.

[Dan from Michigan]

I tend to distrust polls in general. The main reason is because of turnout. The dems didn't expect Detroit staying home in 1990(Engler's 38% in the polls, was actually 50% and a 17,000 win). They were close to being on target in 98 with Fieger/Engler if I remember right. In 2000, they leaned too GOP and underestimated black turnout. In 02, they underestimated GOP turnout.

[ambrose]

I think polling in states with large urban areas is truly a crap shoot. You never know when the "easily confused voter" crowd is going to get riled up enough to turn out in droves.

[Theodore R.]

Oh, I thought that McClintock was within 10 points of Arnold -- he is weaker than I thought. But I would vote for McClintock were I a CA voter. I can't afford to live in CA and don't much understand how people other than Aaron Spelling and his friends can do so.

[FairOpinion]

"Whatever... "

==

It's not "whatever". Here they are going to all the trouble and expense of doing a poll, and don't bother asking the only question that matters "Who do you plan to vote for?" and they could also ask "Did the debate change your mind?"

Why didn't they ask that question, or if they did, why don't they publish the results, then we could compare it with previous polls.

Being a suspicious person, I think they are deliberately pushing McClintock for the very reason to split the conservative vote, just as Alan Colmes can't tell us enough times, that conservatives should vote for Tom.

I do think that Tom won the debate, but his positions don't resonate with most people in California, so it would have been interesting to see, where he stands in actual poll numbers after the debate.

[AndyTheBear]

Agreed. Winning the debates is not the same thing as winning votes--as demonstrated by the 2000 election debates between Bush and Gore. Most folks thought Gore won the both debates, but following both debates it was Bush who got a bump in the polls.

[SierraWasp]

Now you're talking!!!

[45Auto]

Butamante's poor showing could mean that Davis will be retained.

[SierraWasp]

"A little paranoid arent we?"

Yes, because of their love affair with the bias BEE who they push like crazy on their website and in Station Promo's, etc.!!!

[Canticle_of_Deborah]

New survey confirms governor can’t help himself;
shows McClintock in possible tie with Schwarzenegger, Bustamante.
by William E. Saracino (contributes regularly to CPR Online)

The Gov. Gray Davis anti-recall campaign’s new television commercial features Sen. Diane
Feinstein looking into the camera urging voters to oppose the recall. Davis does not appear and
is barely mentioned, although he is the man the commercial is meant to benefit. Expect this to
be the standard Davis commercial for the balance of the election — lots of Feinstein and other
surrogates, little or no Davis.

Recent polling has confirmed what earlier surveys and focus groups first suggested: that the
governor loses ground with voters when he makes his own case. A survey taken late last week
for an amalgam of Sacramento-based statewide organizations by a nationally- respected east
coast polling firm was the latest to show this phenomena.

A source familiar with this latest poll described the sight or sound of the governor as “fingernails
on a chalkboard to a large majority of voters.” A Sacramento source who saw the figures
described the average voter’s view of Davis as being “Richard Nixon without the charm.” The
survey reportedly showed the governor’s approval rating in danger of slipping below 20 percent.

Senator Feinstien, on the other hand, remains highly popular, especially with the Democrat base,
from whom a heavy turnout is essential if Davis is to have any chance of survival. Feinstein will
be featured in a series of pro-Davis commercials, as will be “man in the street” testimonials
from teachers, fire fighters, and other public employees.

The candidate portion of the same poll contained good news for state Sen. Tom McClintock.
While exact numbers were not released, those familiar with the survey described the results as
having McClintock “within the margin of error” of being tied for first with Arnold Schwarzenegger
and Cruz Bustamanate. Such a split would probably fall in the 25 percent range for each
candidate.

The other major Republican, Peter Ueberroth, who is running as an Independent, was said to be
“in the low single digits,” currently showing “no perceptible movement.”

These results could prove to be a huge break for McClintock and bad news for
Schwarzenegger. But for the senator to benefit tangibly from this closely-held
private survey, the numbers will have to be released or confirmed by one or more
public surveys. One private poll will not change the current “two-man race”
perception of most pundits and many voters. But if new, soon-to-be-released polls
also show McClintock closing in on the lead, the “conventional wisdom” of recent
weeks would be shattered, opening an entirely new phase of the campaign.

[AndyTheBear]

If 37% believed Arnold did the right thing by staying away, and 30% think McClintock won the debate, who has the most support?

Insufficient data. Being perceived as the winner in a debate is not the same thing as being supported.

I am hoping SurveyUSA will have more recent data on the questions that matter: like how are likely/certain voters are going to vote. Their web page still has the Aug 26 data on the real questions.