[Dan from Michigan]

I tend to distrust polls in general. The main reason is because of turnout. The dems didn't expect Detroit staying home in 1990(Engler's 38% in the polls, was actually 50% and a 17,000 win). They were close to being on target in 98 with Fieger/Engler if I remember right. In 2000, they leaned too GOP and underestimated black turnout. In 02, they underestimated GOP turnout.

[ambrose]

I think polling in states with large urban areas is truly a crap shoot. You never know when the "easily confused voter" crowd is going to get riled up enough to turn out in droves.