For the original Chinese version, please visit: http://www.renminbao.com/rmb/articles/2003/9/3/27782b.html
It's a war of nerves. It isn't only the North Koreans who may be building bombs, and the Japanese would be much, much better at it in any case - and unlike their NK counterparts, they do have plenty of material. China is waiting for us to make the first move and we are waiting for them. If nobody moves, the world changes. If we move together, the world changes. It will be a fine calculation on the part of the Chinese which world will be more advantageous to them. My guess is that one with both North Korea and Japan armed with nuclear weapons probably isn't the best option, if indeed they have any real option left at all. Loss of the option changes the world as well. "May you live in interesting times!"
Thanks. I have been considering the translation of the same article from Korean language source(excerpted from Chinese.) It is better to have the translation from the Chinese source.:)
As this article indicates, Chinese troops are not there to help N. Koreans if a war breaks out in Korean Peninsula. They are there to pressure N. Korea and stem the chaos at the border. They may move in to restore order if the N. Korean regime collapses.
It is also possible that Chinese troops are there for the orderly processing of N. Korean refugees and checking N. Korean military incursions, if there would be a mass exodus of N. Korean refugees once refugee camps are built near the N. Korean border and the news of it gets out.
Many felt that this was an unrealistic scenario back in last December. I thought this would be quite likely. Now it happened.
"When you are near, you must appear to be far...."
Or are they too stupid to know what real trouble they are in?
As soon as North Korea threatened to test nuclear weapons, which I'm sure the Chinese adamantly told them not to say, the situation moved to a new level.
A total of three Field Army Groups (total 150,000 men) are now being deployed. According to PLA organization, one Field Army Group (YeZhan JunTuan) is equivalent to 50,000 men, consisting of 3 infantry divisions, 1 heavy-armor division and 1 artillery division.
Not a bad collection of hardware, just to seal a border. 9 infantry divisions, 3 armored divisions and 3 artillery divisions looks a lot more like the spearhead of an invasion force, though. The interesting detail here is a large offensive force is being prepared on an weak flank of an 'ally' who is sliding into conflict with a powerful enemy. Perhaps China has told North Korea that they're doing this in preperations to assist them. In Kim's world, he may even believe it.
Will the Chinese get in the ring to help out North Korea? Not a chance.
My money says that as soon as the DMZ goes hot, the Chinese will break through the western front, and race down as far south as they can. If they can sieze Pyongyang while we're still fighting it out on the border, they can 'overthrow' the government and provide 'peacekeepers' to stabilize the country with the same borders. Martial law under the PLA would keep the country from falling apart. It's very possible that the PLA could do a better job than we could.
The North Koreans do not regard Chinese as demons (Americans and South Koreans are). That may sound silly, but there would be far less panic and unrest if the Chinese stepped in to 'help'. Also, the PLA could essentially slaughter whoever did not obey until control was reestablished, which is not an option for the U.S. They could effectively if brutally keep the mess locked down long enough for international relief workers to bring in food, and start to establish order. Neither South Korea nor China wants the DPRK to shatter and explode; if they think they can control the situation, they will.
Although the Military Police is also under the PLA, replacing the border forces with those with combat capability has more implications than strengthening the border control. This is not only to prevent a sudden flood of N Korean refugees. The more important task is: a contingency plan for a possible American attack on N Korea.
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China has got to convey a message to Kim Jong-Il: Do not expect China to continue with the “Resist U.S. Aggression and Aid Korea (kangmei yuanchao)” policy from 1950-53. Today’s reality is: if a peaceful solution fails, Beijing will not send troops to N Korea to assist their fighting. Instead, they will send troops to close the border.
This gives away the suprise ending. The Chinese do not intend to stay on their side of the border and swat away refugees, nor do they intend to engage U.S. forces. That only leaves one reason to invade, and that's to take over, much like our good friend Uncle Joe Stalin did for half of Europe.
The overwhelming bulk of North Korea's combat power is on the DMZ. 24 hours into the war with us, the DPRK will be so badly disrupted and disoriented that they'll have no effective response against 100k+ troops kicking in the back door. Kim may even be so naiive as to allow them in without a shot. Either way, he's done for, and so is his regime. One way or another, China cannot tolerate half the U.S. military within a few days drive from Beijing, especially if they think we may have reason to be angry with them. If their only option is to invade a former ally to create a buffer zone, they will.